Issued 2026-09-16 at $237.96 · now $237.96 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, R has typically landed between $209.74 and $277.14 — a range of −11.9% to +16.5% from the issuance price $237.96.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,673 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($237.96) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where R has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $237.96 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $237.96 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $244.17 (+2.6%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $230.64–$257.7
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $209.74–$277.14
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,673 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-11 | −41.6% | −41.6% | +1.2% |
| 2009-02-03 | −40.6% | −40.6% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-25 | −39.9% | −39.9% | +0.2% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2009-03-06 | +59.5% | −0.7% | +63.1% |
| 2009-07-14 | +58.5% | +0.0% | +58.5% |
| 2009-07-13 | +55.4% | −0.6% | +55.4% |
4,673 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
44%
−0.8%
n=18
Feb
63%
+0.7%
n=19
Mar
63%
+1.5%
n=19
Apr
58%
+3.0%
n=19
May
63%
+0.9%
n=19
Jun
53%
−0.4%
n=19
Jul
74%
+5.9%
n=19
Aug
47%
−1.0%
n=19
Sep
58%
+0.4%
n=19
Oct
56%
+0.3%
n=18
Nov
78%
+5.6%
n=18
Dec
61%
+1.0%
n=18
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-29 | Fatovic Robert D | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $249.85 | $1.2M | −5.3% of holding | +6.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 88,826 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | HODES SANFORD J. | officer | Sale | 595 @ $251.95 | $150K | −2.5% of holding | +7.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 22,948 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | Nieto Luis P Jr | director | Sale | 720 @ $235.79 | $170K | −2.3% of holding | +7.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 29,974 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | Diez John J. | director | Sale | 9,632 @ $222.20 | $2.1M | −5.0% of holding | −2.8% | −0.8% | 183,810 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | SANCHEZ ROBERT E | director | Sale | 40,841 @ $223.28 | $9.1M | −49.4% of holding | −4.7% | −2.5% | 41,766 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | SANCHEZ ROBERT E | director | Sale | 676 @ $223.86 | $151K | −1.6% of holding | −4.7% | −2.5% | 41,090 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | SANCHEZ ROBERT E | director | Sale | 262 @ $225.12 | $59K | −0.6% of holding | −4.7% | −2.5% | 40,828 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-20 | Fatovic Robert D | officer | Sale | 11,640 @ $222.30 | $2.6M | −11.0% of holding | −6.7% | −1.5% | 93,737 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-19 | Sensing John S. | officer | Sale | 9,410 @ $219.69 | $2.1M | −14.0% of holding | −7.6% | +0.5% | 57,671 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-19 | Sensing John S. | officer | Sale | 6,504 @ $220.65 | $1.4M | −11.3% of holding | −7.6% | +0.5% | 51,167 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-19 | Sensing John S. | officer | Sale | 5,965 @ $219.69 | $1.3M | −7.5% of holding | −7.6% | +0.5% | 73,226 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-19 | Sensing John S. | officer | Sale | 4,123 @ $220.65 | $910K | −5.6% of holding | −7.6% | +0.5% | 69,103 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-19 | Ravindran Rajeev | officer | Sale | 2,296 @ $221.36 | $508K | −11.0% of holding | −7.6% | +0.5% | 18,536 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-19 | Sensing John S. | officer | Sale | 1,721 @ $222.01 | $382K | −3.4% of holding | −7.6% | +0.5% | 49,446 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-19 | Sensing John S. | officer | Sale | 1,600 @ $222.04 | $355K | −2.3% of holding | −7.6% | +0.5% | 67,503 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-19 | Sensing John S. | officer | Sale | 422 @ $222.43 | $94K | −0.6% of holding | −7.6% | +0.5% | 67,081 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-19 | Ravindran Rajeev | officer | Sale | 400 @ $223.03 | $89K | −2.2% of holding | −7.6% | +0.5% | 18,136 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-19 | Sensing John S. | officer | Sale | 365 @ $222.52 | $81K | −0.7% of holding | −7.6% | +0.5% | 49,081 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | HAVENS THOMAS M. | officer | Sale | 6,686 @ $221.19 | $1.5M | −14.6% of holding | −9.8% | −1.0% | 38,959 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | HAVENS THOMAS M. | officer | Sale | 5,885 @ $222.17 | $1.3M | −15.1% of holding | −9.8% | −1.0% | 33,074 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Fatovic Robert D | officer | Sale | 9,251 @ $217.07 | $2.0M | −8.9% of holding | −7.4% | +0.8% | 94,486 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | HODES SANFORD J. | officer | Sale | 4,370 @ $210.16 | $918K | −14.0% of holding | −7.4% | +0.8% | 26,871 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | HODES SANFORD J. | officer | Sale | 3,240 @ $210.16 | $681K | −10.8% of holding | −7.4% | +0.8% | 26,871 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | HODES SANFORD J. | officer | Sale | 2,917 @ $210.16 | $613K | −10.9% of holding | −7.4% | +0.8% | 23,954 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Fatovic Robert D | officer | Sale | 749 @ $217.92 | $163K | −0.8% of holding | −7.4% | +0.8% | 93,737 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-13 | SMITH E FOLLIN | director | Sale | 21,772 @ $207.78 | $4.5M | −79.1% of holding | −7.7% | +1.8% | 5,741 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-13 | Ravindran Rajeev | officer | Sale | 7,552 @ $211.94 | $1.6M | −26.6% of holding | −7.7% | +1.8% | 20,832 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-13 | Ravindran Rajeev | officer | Sale | 6,815 @ $211.50 | $1.4M | −24.7% of holding | −7.7% | +1.8% | 20,832 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-13 | JONES KAREN M. | officer | Sale | 5,143 @ $208.02 | $1.1M | −28.0% of holding | −7.7% | +1.8% | 13,200 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-13 | SMITH E FOLLIN | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $206.99 | $1.0M | −15.4% of holding | −7.7% | +1.8% | 27,513 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-13 | SMITH E FOLLIN | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $207.00 | $414K | −56.4% of holding | −7.7% | +1.8% | 1,549 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-13 | SMITH E FOLLIN | director | Sale | 1,452 @ $208.38 | $303K | −25.3% of holding | −7.7% | +1.8% | 4,289 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-13 | SMITH E FOLLIN | director | Sale | 1,266 @ $205.84 | $261K | −3.7% of holding | −7.7% | +1.8% | 32,513 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-13 | Regan Thomas Michael | officer | Sale | 871 @ $212.81 | $185K | −10.1% of holding | −7.7% | +1.8% | 7,747 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-13 | SMITH E FOLLIN | director | Sale | 740 @ $209.91 | $155K | −17.3% of holding | −7.7% | +1.8% | 3,549 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-13 | JONES KAREN M. | officer | Sale | 727 @ $209.74 | $152K | −5.5% of holding | −7.7% | +1.8% | 12,473 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-13 | JONES KAREN M. | officer | Sale | 130 @ $206.96 | $27K | −0.7% of holding | −7.7% | +1.8% | 18,343 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-22 | Martin Steve W. | officer | Sale | 2,261 @ $186.88 | $423K | −7.9% of holding | −3.0% | +13.8% | 26,432 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-22 | Martin Steve W. | officer | Sale | 1,929 @ $187.69 | $362K | −7.3% of holding | −3.0% | +13.8% | 24,503 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-22 | Martin Steve W. | officer | Sale | 1,042 @ $185.49 | $193K | −3.5% of holding | −3.0% | +13.8% | 28,693 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-22 | HODES SANFORD J. | officer | Sale | 532 @ $187.48 | $100K | −2.1% of holding | −3.0% | +13.8% | 24,452 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-22 | Martin Steve W. | officer | Sale | 268 @ $188.56 | $51K | −1.1% of holding | −3.0% | +13.8% | 24,235 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-13 | HAVENS THOMAS M. | officer | Sale | 6,500 @ $181.77 | $1.2M | −16.7% of holding | +0.7% | +8.3% | 32,478 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-31 | SMITH E FOLLIN | director | Sale | 5,523 @ $177.66 | $981K | −14.1% of holding | +4.0% | −1.3% | 33,779 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-30 | SMITH E FOLLIN | director | Sale | 500 @ $180.00 | $90K | −1.3% of holding | +3.0% | −1.1% | 39,302 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-29 | SANCHEZ ROBERT E | director | Sale | 9,883 @ $179.26 | $1.8M | −19.5% of holding | +3.1% | −2.7% | 40,824 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-29 | SANCHEZ ROBERT E | director | Sale | 7,278 @ $183.07 | $1.3M | −11.8% of holding | +3.1% | −2.7% | 54,364 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-29 | SANCHEZ ROBERT E | director | Sale | 3,657 @ $178.57 | $653K | −6.7% of holding | +3.1% | −2.7% | 50,707 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-29 | SANCHEZ ROBERT E | director | Sale | 1,245 @ $182.50 | $227K | −2.0% of holding | +3.1% | −2.7% | 61,642 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-29 | GALLO-AQUINO CRISTINA | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $180.87 | $181K | −3.6% of holding | +3.1% | −2.7% | 26,561 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-28 | SANCHEZ ROBERT E | director | Sale | 16,552 @ $182.34 | $3.0M | −19.5% of holding | +1.6% | −4.6% | 68,398 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-28 | SANCHEZ ROBERT E | director | Sale | 5,511 @ $182.94 | $1.0M | −8.1% of holding | +1.6% | −4.6% | 62,887 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-20 | SANCHEZ ROBERT E | director | Sale | 18,496 @ $155.73 | $2.9M | −31.2% of holding | −3.5% | −3.6% | 40,824 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-15 | Diez John J. | director | Sale | 17,430 @ $158.24 | $2.8M | −9.8% of holding | −6.6% | −5.9% | 159,911 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-15 | Fatovic Robert D | officer | Sale | 13,045 @ $159.02 | $2.1M | −13.6% of holding | −6.6% | −5.9% | 82,801 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-14 | Sensing John S. | officer | Sale | 25,383 @ $159.94 | $4.1M | −32.7% of holding | −9.0% | −7.7% | 52,168 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-14 | Sensing John S. | officer | Sale | 12,080 @ $160.20 | $1.9M | −13.5% of holding | −9.0% | −7.7% | 77,551 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-05 | Nieto Luis P Jr | director | Sale | 1,243 @ $144.42 | $180K | −4.1% of holding | −1.4% | −3.1% | 29,225 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-05 | SMITH E FOLLIN | director | Sale | 1,243 @ $144.38 | $179K | −3.0% of holding | −1.4% | −3.1% | 39,802 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-18 | Ravindran Rajeev | officer | Sale | 1,294 @ $170.80 | $221K | −7.2% of holding | −11.0% | +1.9% | 16,572 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
214 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Fatovic Robert D | officer | Gift | 403 | 88,455 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Fatovic Robert D | officer | Discretionary | 6,344 | 8,293 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | SWOBODA CHARLES M | director | Award / grant | 108 | 9,229 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | HODES SANFORD J. | officer | Gift | 411 | 23,543 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Hilton Michael F | director | Award / grant | 827 | 33,958 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | NORD DAVID G | director | Award / grant | 720 | 33,890 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | NORD DAVID G | director | Award / grant | 796 | 34,686 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | HAGEMANN ROBERT | director | Award / grant | 720 | 30,420 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | HAGEMANN ROBERT | director | Award / grant | 677 | 31,097 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Lundgren Tamara L. | director | Award / grant | 720 | 32,076 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Lundgren Tamara L. | director | Award / grant | 304 | 32,672 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Romo Tammy | director | Award / grant | 712 | 712 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | SWOBODA CHARLES M | director | Award / grant | 720 | 8,930 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | SWOBODA CHARLES M | director | Award / grant | 191 | 9,121 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | SMITH ABBIE J | director | Award / grant | 1,211 | 61,123 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Nieto Luis P Jr | director | Award / grant | 749 | 30,694 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | STOCKTON DMITRI L | director | Award / grant | 720 | 22,304 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | STOCKTON DMITRI L | director | Award / grant | 549 | 22,853 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Nieto Luis P Jr | director | Award / grant | 720 | 29,945 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Eck Robert J. | director | Award / grant | 720 | 35,887 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Eck Robert J. | director | Award / grant | 895 | 36,782 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Hilton Michael F | director | Award / grant | 720 | 33,131 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | SWOBODA CHARLES M | director | Award / grant | 138 | 8,210 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-25 | Diez John J. | director | Withheld for tax | 14,558 | 193,442 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-25 | Diez John J. | director | Option exercise | 24,190 | 208,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-25 | Diez John J. | director | Option exercise | 24,190 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | SANCHEZ ROBERT E | director | Withheld for tax | 62,611 | 82,607 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | SANCHEZ ROBERT E | director | Option exercise | 104,390 | 145,218 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | SANCHEZ ROBERT E | director | Option exercise | 104,390 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Fatovic Robert D | officer | Option exercise | 11,640 | 105,377 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Fatovic Robert D | officer | Option exercise | 11,640 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-19 | Sensing John S. | officer | Option exercise | 12,110 | 79,191 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-19 | Sensing John S. | officer | Option exercise | 12,110 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Fatovic Robert D | officer | Option exercise | 10,000 | 103,737 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | HODES SANFORD J. | officer | Option exercise | 4,370 | 31,241 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | HODES SANFORD J. | officer | Option exercise | 3,240 | 30,111 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Fatovic Robert D | officer | Option exercise | 10,000 | 11,640 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | HODES SANFORD J. | officer | Option exercise | 4,370 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | HODES SANFORD J. | officer | Option exercise | 3,240 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Ravindran Rajeev | officer | Option exercise | 7,552 | 28,384 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia Foxx | House | sale | 2022-05-04 | 2022-04-08 | $15–50K |
| Virginia Foxx | House | purchase | 2022-04-05 | 2021-03-28 | $15–50K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | sale | 2022-01-04 | 2021-11-02 | $50–100K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | sale | 2022-01-04 | 2021-11-02 | $15–50K |
| Marie Newman | House | purchase | 2021-10-06 | 2021-09-07 | $15–50K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | sale | 2021-08-18 | 2021-07-20 | $15–50K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | sale | 2021-08-18 | 2021-07-20 | $15–50K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | sale | 2021-05-26 | 2021-04-08 | $15–50K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | sale | 2021-05-26 | 2021-04-08 | $1–15K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | sale | 2021-04-19 | 2021-03-12 | $15–50K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | sale | 2021-04-19 | 2021-03-25 | $15–50K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | sale | 2021-04-19 | 2021-03-25 | $15–50K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | sale | 2021-04-19 | 2021-03-12 | $15–50K |
| Marie Newman | House | sale | 2021-04-15 | 2021-03-19 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.