QXO · TickerCove

QXOQXO, Inc.Industrials · Industrial - Distributionas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $11.27 · now $11.27 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, QXO has typically landed between $8.48 and $16.23 — a range of −24.8% to +44.0% from the issuance price $11.27.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

4,890 overlapping 1 month windows · 2005-01-04 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($11.27) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$11.27 · 0% of range

$11.27 low$27.07 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−0.1%

typical move · IQR 23.0%

−24.8%worst (p90)+44.0%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where QXO has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $11.27 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $11.27 (+0.0%)
typical $11.25 (-0.1%)
middle 50% $9.96–$12.55
90% range $8.48–$16.23

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,890 windows spanning 2005-01-04 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2024-07-24	−88.8%	−91.3%	+0.0%
2024-06-28	−82.6%	−82.6%	+72.7%
2011-07-18	−82.6%	−88.6%	+0.0%
3 best
2012-02-21	+752.8%	+0.0%	+752.8%
2012-02-22	+715.5%	+0.0%	+715.5%
2012-02-27	+710.0%	+0.0%	+710.0%

4,890 overlapping windows · 2005-01-04 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~22 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

43%

+14.9%

n=21

Feb

45%

+12.0%

n=22

Mar

32%

+28.9%

n=22

Apr

45%

+1.6%

n=22

May

55%

+3.6%

n=22

Jun

45%

+0.8%

n=22

Jul

27%

−1.0%

n=22

Aug

50%

−0.5%

n=22

Sep

27%

−4.4%

n=22

Oct

29%

+6.1%

n=21

Nov

29%

−6.7%

n=21

Dec

33%

+7.1%

n=21

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

64 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-07-15	Covington Alec C	director	Award / grant	9,639	9,639	Form 4
2026-07-15	OTERO MADELINE	officer	Award / grant	32,637	32,637	Form 4
2026-07-01	Covington Alec C	director	Award / grant	150,368	150,368	Form 4
2026-07-01	Covington Alec C	director	Award / grant	3,494	153,862	Form 4
2026-07-01	Covington Alec C	director	Award / grant	150,368	150,368	Form 4
2026-07-01	Covington Alec C	director	Award / grant	3,494	153,862	Form 4
2026-05-05	Colucci Marlene M	director	Option exercise	12,111	0	Form 4
2026-05-05	Harik Mario A	director	Option exercise	12,111	26,634	Form 4
2026-05-05	Harik Mario A	director	Option exercise	12,111	0	Form 4
2026-05-05	Kushner Jared Corey	director	Award / grant	9,274	9,274	Form 4
2026-05-05	Kissel Mary E.	director	Option exercise	12,111	37,575	Form 4
2026-05-05	Kissel Mary E.	director	Award / grant	9,274	9,274	Form 4
2026-05-05	Kissel Mary E.	director	Option exercise	12,111	0	Form 4
2026-05-05	Landry Allison	director	Option exercise	12,111	32,105	Form 4
2026-05-05	Landry Allison	director	Award / grant	9,274	9,274	Form 4
2026-05-05	Landry Allison	director	Option exercise	12,111	0	Form 4
2026-05-05	Kushner Jared Corey	director	Option exercise	12,111	26,634	Form 4
2026-05-05	Kushner Jared Corey	director	Option exercise	12,111	0	Form 4
2026-05-05	Harik Mario A	director	Award / grant	9,274	9,274	Form 4
2026-05-05	Aiken Jason W	director	Option exercise	12,111	26,634	Form 4
2026-05-05	Aiken Jason W	director	Award / grant	9,274	9,274	Form 4
2026-05-05	Aiken Jason W	director	Option exercise	12,111	0	Form 4
2026-05-05	Colucci Marlene M	director	Option exercise	12,111	26,634	Form 4
2026-05-05	Colucci Marlene M	director	Award / grant	9,274	9,274	Form 4
2026-03-06	Signorello Christopher J.	officer	Award / grant	13,761	13,761	Form 4
2026-01-15	BRADLEY S JACOBS	director	Withheld for tax	928,239	1,382,083	Form 4
2026-01-15	Essaid Ihsan	officer	Withheld for tax	148,650	348,882	Form 4
2026-01-15	Signorello Christopher J.	officer	Withheld for tax	21,902	150,904	Form 4
2026-01-15	Essaid Ihsan	officer	Option exercise	319,920	497,532	Form 4
2026-01-15	BRADLEY S JACOBS	director	Option exercise	2,001,888	6,228,100	Form 4
2026-01-15	Essaid Ihsan	officer	Option exercise	319,920	995,313	Form 4
2026-01-15	Signorello Christopher J.	officer	Option exercise	46,406	172,806	Form 4
2026-01-15	Signorello Christopher J.	officer	Option exercise	46,406	144,375	Form 4
2026-01-15	BRADLEY S JACOBS	director	Option exercise	2,001,888	2,310,322	Form 4
2025-12-31	BRADLEY S JACOBS	director	Withheld for tax	266,467	308,434	Form 4
2025-12-31	Smith Sean Christopher	officer	Withheld for tax	61,404	121,993	Form 4
2025-12-31	Essaid Ihsan	officer	Withheld for tax	58,923	177,612	Form 4
2025-12-31	Signorello Christopher J.	officer	Withheld for tax	7,760	126,400	Form 4
2025-12-31	Smith Sean Christopher	officer	Option exercise	156,044	884,254	Form 4
2025-12-31	BRADLEY S JACOBS	director	Option exercise	574,901	574,901	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i