Issued 2026-09-16 at $5.00 · now $5.00 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, QS has typically landed between $3.54 and $7.36 — a range of −29.3% to +47.1% from the issuance price $5.00.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,506 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-08-17 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($5.00) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where QS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $5 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $5 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $4.7 (-6.0%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $4.09–$5.31
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $3.54–$7.36
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,506 windows spanning 2020-08-17 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-12-22 | −63.8% | −63.8% | +0.0% |
| 2020-12-28 | −60.5% | −60.5% | +0.0% |
| 2020-12-24 | −59.5% | −59.5% | +0.4% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-11-20 | +553.8% | +0.0% | +553.8% |
| 2020-11-10 | +442.2% | +0.0% | +442.2% |
| 2020-11-09 | +431.0% | −0.1% | +431.0% |
1,506 overlapping windows · 2020-08-17 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~7 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
17%
−6.7%
n=6
Feb
33%
−0.7%
n=6
Mar
33%
−4.7%
n=6
Apr
17%
−10.6%
n=6
May
50%
−2.7%
n=6
Jun
50%
+6.5%
n=6
Jul
67%
+16.5%
n=6
Aug
33%
−9.9%
n=6
Sep
43%
+13.5%
n=7
Oct
33%
+0.8%
n=6
Nov
50%
+46.2%
n=6
Dec
33%
+4.4%
n=6
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Holme Timothy | officer | Sale | 12,723 @ $6.01 | $77K | −100.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Holme Timothy | officer | Sale | 21,531 @ $5.76 | $124K | −100.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Holme Timothy | officer | Sale | 20,345 @ $5.76 | $117K | −1.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,658,075 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | Holme Timothy | officer | Sale | 102,991 @ $7.28 | $750K | −5.7% of holding | −26.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,712,506 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | Holme Timothy | officer | Sale | 34,254 @ $7.28 | $249K | −100.0% of holding | −26.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | Hettrich Kevin | officer | Sale | 9,800 @ $7.28 | $71K | −0.5% of holding | −26.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,816,257 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-22 | Hettrich Kevin | officer | Sale | 9,800 @ $7.94 | $78K | −0.5% of holding | −23.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,826,057 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Holme Timothy | officer | Sale | 150,320 @ $9.30 | $1.4M | −8.1% of holding | −21.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,712,506 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Holme Timothy | officer | Sale | 40,615 @ $9.30 | $378K | −100.0% of holding | −21.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | Holme Timothy | officer | Sale | 92,972 @ $8.23 | $765K | −5.1% of holding | −10.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,712,506 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | Holme Timothy | officer | Sale | 25,445 @ $8.23 | $209K | −100.0% of holding | −10.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | Hettrich Kevin | officer | Sale | 9,800 @ $8.06 | $79K | −0.5% of holding | −10.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,833,902 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | Holme Timothy | officer | Sale | 150,183 @ $7.50 | $1.1M | −8.1% of holding | −1.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,712,506 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-20 | Holme Timothy | officer | Sale | 34,254 @ $7.50 | $257K | −100.0% of holding | −1.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-12 | Straubel Jeffrey B | director | Sale | 27,106 @ $7.85 | $213K | −17.1% of holding | −14.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 131,298 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-06 | Singh Mohit | officer | Sale | 50,000 @ $7.87 | $394K | −2.7% of holding | −4.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,803,035 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-02 | Holme Timothy | officer | Sale | 127,077 @ $6.18 | $785K | −10.3% of holding | +3.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,108,182 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-02 | Holme Timothy | officer | Sale | 34,254 @ $6.18 | $212K | −100.0% of holding | +3.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-02 | Straubel Jeffrey B | director | Sale | 27,106 @ $6.17 | $167K | −14.6% of holding | +3.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 158,404 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-02 | Hettrich Kevin | officer | Sale | 9,800 @ $6.20 | $61K | −0.7% of holding | +3.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,357,918 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-11 | Straubel Jeffrey B | director | Sale | 27,106 @ $6.95 | $188K | −12.7% of holding | −9.9% | −38.6% | 185,510 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-11 | Hettrich Kevin | officer | Sale | 9,800 @ $6.95 | $68K | −0.7% of holding | −9.9% | −38.6% | 1,367,718 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-06 | MCCARTHY MICHAEL O III | officer | Sale | 45,000 @ $6.73 | $303K | −4.5% of holding | −5.5% | −33.2% | 954,219 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-05 | Holme Timothy | officer | Sale | 127,077 @ $6.86 | $872K | −10.3% of holding | −5.4% | −35.3% | 1,108,182 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Holme Timothy | officer | Sale | 34,254 @ $6.86 | $235K | −100.0% of holding | −5.4% | −35.3% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | MCCARTHY MICHAEL O III | officer | Sale | 30,000 @ $6.90 | $207K | −2.9% of holding | −5.1% | −34.4% | 999,219 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Hettrich Kevin | officer | Sale | 9,800 @ $6.76 | $66K | −0.7% of holding | +3.4% | −29.0% | 1,358,079 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-20 | Holme Timothy | officer | Sale | 34,120 @ $6.97 | $238K | −3.0% of holding | +7.2% | −24.7% | 1,088,228 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-19 | Holme Timothy | officer | Sale | 127,077 @ $7.10 | $902K | −10.2% of holding | −3.1% | −32.5% | 1,122,348 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-19 | Holme Timothy | officer | Sale | 34,254 @ $7.10 | $243K | −100.0% of holding | −3.1% | −32.5% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-19 | Straubel Jeffrey B | director | Sale | 27,106 @ $7.10 | $192K | −11.3% of holding | −3.1% | −32.5% | 212,616 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-14 | Hettrich Kevin | officer | Sale | 9,800 @ $10.59 | $104K | −0.7% of holding | −27.1% | −53.9% | 1,485,138 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-05 | Holme Timothy | officer | Sale | 166,440 @ $11.28 | $1.9M | −11.7% of holding | −24.8% | −50.4% | 1,251,383 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-05 | Holme Timothy | officer | Sale | 44,922 @ $11.28 | $507K | −100.0% of holding | −24.8% | −50.4% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-05 | Straubel Jeffrey B | director | Sale | 27,106 @ $11.28 | $306K | −10.2% of holding | −24.8% | −50.4% | 239,722 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-19 | Straubel Jeffrey B | director | Sale | 157,171 @ $11.38 | $1.8M | −37.1% of holding | −6.7% | −46.0% | 266,828 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-15 | Saluja Dipender | director | Sale | 2,613,121 @ $11.01 | $28.8M | −20.9% of holding | −6.1% | −45.8% | 9,892,934 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-15 | Hettrich Kevin | officer | Sale | 9,800 @ $11.07 | $109K | −0.7% of holding | −6.1% | −45.8% | 1,492,438 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-12 | Saluja Dipender | director | Sale | 684,524 @ $11.94 | $8.2M | −5.2% of holding | −10.1% | −52.0% | 12,506,055 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-04 | Holme Timothy | officer | Sale | 166,440 @ $12.69 | $2.1M | −11.7% of holding | −14.2% | −49.6% | 1,251,383 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-04 | Holme Timothy | officer | Sale | 44,922 @ $12.69 | $570K | −100.0% of holding | −14.2% | −49.6% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | MCCARTHY MICHAEL O III | officer | Sale | 40,000 @ $11.79 | $472K | −22.5% of holding | −10.5% | −37.0% | 137,888 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-24 | MCCARTHY MICHAEL O III | officer | Sale | 36,415 @ $11.60 | $423K | −20.9% of holding | −9.0% | −36.3% | 137,888 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-21 | Hettrich Kevin | officer | Sale | 9,559 @ $11.28 | $108K | −0.6% of holding | −5.0% | −35.1% | 1,502,479 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-21 | Hettrich Kevin | officer | Sale | 241 @ $11.65 | $3K | −0.0% of holding | −5.0% | −35.1% | 1,502,238 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-19 | Holme Timothy | officer | Sale | 201,785 @ $12.51 | $2.5M | −13.9% of holding | −11.3% | −47.4% | 1,251,383 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-19 | Holme Timothy | officer | Sale | 44,923 @ $12.51 | $562K | −100.0% of holding | −11.3% | −47.4% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-07 | MCCARTHY MICHAEL O III | officer | Sale | 20,435 @ $16.12 | $329K | −12.9% of holding | −25.1% | −60.0% | 137,888 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-05 | Straubel Jeffrey B | director | Sale | 107,299 @ $17.03 | $1.8M | −25.5% of holding | −27.7% | −65.3% | 312,762 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-05 | Straubel Jeffrey B | director | Sale | 31,044 @ $16.16 | $502K | −6.9% of holding | −27.7% | −65.3% | 420,061 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-05 | Straubel Jeffrey B | director | Sale | 18,828 @ $17.61 | $332K | −6.0% of holding | −27.7% | −65.3% | 293,934 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-31 | Buss Brad W | director | Sale | 175,000 @ $18.41 | $3.2M | −58.8% of holding | −33.9% | −67.3% | 122,476 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-31 | Buss Brad W | director | Sale | 125,000 @ $17.37 | $2.2M | −29.6% of holding | −33.9% | −67.3% | 297,476 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-30 | MCCARTHY MICHAEL O III | officer | Sale | 50,000 @ $15.78 | $789K | −3.5% of holding | −25.8% | −60.7% | 1,376,118 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-27 | Sivaram Srinivasan | director | Sale | 90,000 @ $17.05 | $1.5M | −20.0% of holding | −25.7% | −62.4% | 360,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-24 | Prinz Fritz | director | Sale | 461,558 @ $15.47 | $7.1M | −96.0% of holding | −28.4% | −64.2% | 19,320 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-24 | Prinz Fritz | director | Sale | 239,961 @ $15.47 | $3.7M | −96.0% of holding | −28.4% | −64.2% | 10,039 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-24 | Prinz Fritz | director | Sale | 239,951 @ $15.47 | $3.7M | −96.0% of holding | −28.4% | −64.2% | 10,049 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-24 | Singh Mohit | officer | Sale | 220,000 @ $15.09 | $3.3M | −13.4% of holding | −28.4% | −64.2% | 1,420,054 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-24 | Buss Brad W | director | Sale | 200,000 @ $16.44 | $3.3M | −62.0% of holding | −28.4% | −64.2% | 122,476 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
206 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Holme Timothy | officer | Conversion | 12,723 | 1,212,357 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | Holme Timothy | officer | Conversion | 12,723 | 12,723 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Holme Timothy | officer | Conversion | 21,531 | 21,531 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Holme Timothy | officer | Conversion | 21,531 | 1,225,080 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Sivaram Srinivasan | director | Withheld for tax | 81,752 | 5,078,264 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Singh Mohit | officer | Withheld for tax | 34,304 | 1,737,150 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Holme Timothy | officer | Withheld for tax | 34,086 | 1,678,420 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Fasoli Luca Giovanni | officer | Withheld for tax | 32,255 | 1,907,088 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Hettrich Kevin | officer | Withheld for tax | 31,095 | 1,785,162 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | MCCARTHY MICHAEL O III | officer | Withheld for tax | 25,709 | 1,527,774 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-02 | Holme Timothy | officer | Conversion | 102,991 | 1,815,497 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-02 | Holme Timothy | officer | Conversion | 34,254 | 1,246,611 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-02 | Holme Timothy | officer | Conversion | 34,254 | 34,254 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-02 | Holme Timothy | officer | Conversion | 102,991 | 7,006,547 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | SEGERS DENNIS | director | Award / grant | 24,183 | 149,524 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Saluja Dipender | director | Award / grant | 24,183 | 396,418 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | RIBAR GEOFFREY G | director | Award / grant | 24,183 | 60,285 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Buss Brad W | director | Award / grant | 24,183 | 146,659 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Hanley Jeneanne Michelle | director | Award / grant | 24,183 | 165,729 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Lovett Gena C | director | Award / grant | 24,183 | 144,354 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | NIEBERGALL ROSS | director | Award / grant | 24,183 | 71,558 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Holme Timothy | officer | Conversion | 40,615 | 1,280,865 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Holme Timothy | officer | Conversion | 150,320 | 1,862,826 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Holme Timothy | officer | Conversion | 40,615 | 40,615 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Holme Timothy | officer | Conversion | 150,320 | 7,109,538 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Holme Timothy | officer | Conversion | 92,972 | 1,805,478 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Holme Timothy | officer | Conversion | 25,445 | 25,445 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Holme Timothy | officer | Conversion | 92,972 | 7,259,858 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Holme Timothy | officer | Conversion | 25,445 | 1,321,480 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Holme Timothy | officer | Conversion | 127,077 | 7,352,830 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Holme Timothy | officer | Conversion | 34,254 | 1,346,925 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Holme Timothy | officer | Conversion | 127,077 | 1,862,689 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Holme Timothy | officer | Conversion | 34,254 | 34,254 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Fasoli Luca Giovanni | officer | Withheld for tax | 108,065 | 1,939,343 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Sivaram Srinivasan | director | Withheld for tax | 67,369 | 5,160,016 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Singh Mohit | officer | Withheld for tax | 31,913 | 1,771,122 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Holme Timothy | officer | Withheld for tax | 31,322 | 1,735,612 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Hettrich Kevin | officer | Withheld for tax | 30,535 | 1,843,702 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | MCCARTHY MICHAEL O III | officer | Withheld for tax | 24,211 | 1,553,152 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | Sivaram Srinivasan | director | Gift | 212,075 | 5,227,385 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.