Issued 2026-09-16 at $113.97 · now $113.97 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, QRVO has typically landed between $96.16 and $133.94 — a range of −15.6% to +17.5% from the issuance price $113.97.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,910 overlapping 1 month windows · 2015-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($113.97) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where QRVO has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $113.97 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $113.97 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $112.88 (-1.0%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $105.26–$120.5
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $96.16–$133.94
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,910 windows spanning 2015-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2024-10-17 | −37.1% | −37.1% | +0.2% |
| 2024-10-15 | −36.7% | −36.7% | +0.9% |
| 2024-10-18 | −36.5% | −37.2% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-04-08 | +42.4% | +0.0% | +42.4% |
| 2025-04-10 | +42.3% | +0.0% | +42.3% |
| 2016-02-11 | +41.1% | +0.0% | +44.5% |
2,910 overlapping windows · 2015-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~12 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
55%
+1.5%
n=11
Feb
58%
+2.4%
n=12
Mar
58%
−0.9%
n=12
Apr
42%
+0.1%
n=12
May
67%
+5.0%
n=12
Jun
58%
+1.5%
n=12
Jul
67%
+3.0%
n=12
Aug
33%
−1.3%
n=12
Sep
33%
−4.2%
n=12
Oct
45%
−1.7%
n=11
Nov
55%
+6.4%
n=11
Dec
45%
−0.2%
n=11
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | CREVISTON STEVEN E | director | Sale | 1,950 @ $117.44 | $229K | −1.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 114,813 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | CREVISTON STEVEN E | director | Sale | 1,393 @ $115.74 | $161K | −1.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 117,747 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | CREVISTON STEVEN E | director | Sale | 984 @ $116.57 | $115K | −0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 116,763 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | CREVISTON STEVEN E | director | Sale | 191 @ $114.59 | $22K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 119,140 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | CREVISTON STEVEN E | director | Sale | 172 @ $118.25 | $20K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 114,641 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | CREVISTON STEVEN E | director | Sale | 81 @ $112.89 | $9K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 119,331 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | CREVISTON STEVEN E | director | Sale | 39 @ $111.72 | $4K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 119,412 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | FEGO PAUL J | officer | Sale | 2,500 @ $114.11 | $285K | −3.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 74,460 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | BRUGGEWORTH ROBERT A | director | Sale | 16,727 @ $100.53 | $1.7M | −4.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 337,563 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | BRUGGEWORTH ROBERT A | director | Sale | 12,017 @ $101.35 | $1.2M | −3.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 325,546 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | CREVISTON STEVEN E | director | Sale | 2,958 @ $100.56 | $297K | −2.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 121,303 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | FEGO PAUL J | officer | Sale | 2,400 @ $100.00 | $240K | −3.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 77,060 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | CREVISTON STEVEN E | director | Sale | 1,852 @ $101.36 | $188K | −1.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 119,451 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | FEGO PAUL J | officer | Sale | 100 @ $100.01 | $10K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 76,960 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | Stewart Frank P. | officer | Sale | 8,279 @ $94.72 | $784K | −16.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 43,069 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Chesley Philip | officer | Sale | 5,487 @ $97.50 | $535K | −11.1% of holding | +21.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 44,021 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Brown Grant | officer | Sale | 5,179 @ $97.50 | $505K | −9.5% of holding | +21.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 49,268 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Feld Peter A | director | Sale | 1,328,094 @ $100.25 | $133.1M | −17.7% of holding | −13.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,183,432 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-02 | Feld Peter A | director | Sale | 571,906 @ $103.41 | $59.1M | −9.2% of holding | −13.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,611,526 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-01 | BRUGGEWORTH ROBERT A | director | Sale | 28,500 @ $99.73 | $2.8M | −7.5% of holding | −7.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 349,337 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | BRUGGEWORTH ROBERT A | director | Sale | 13,221 @ $100.56 | $1.3M | −3.8% of holding | −7.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 336,116 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | BRUGGEWORTH ROBERT A | director | Sale | 12,985 @ $101.22 | $1.3M | −3.9% of holding | −7.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 323,131 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | BRUGGEWORTH ROBERT A | director | Sale | 3,251 @ $102.40 | $333K | −1.0% of holding | −7.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 319,880 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-22 | Harrison Gina | officer | Sale | 4,714 @ $100.00 | $471K | −16.2% of holding | −7.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 24,429 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-22 | FEGO PAUL J | officer | Sale | 2,500 @ $100.00 | $250K | −3.4% of holding | −7.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 71,038 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-19 | Harrison Gina | officer | Sale | 956 @ $95.00 | $91K | −3.2% of holding | +2.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 29,143 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Brown Grant | officer | Sale | 1,544 @ $93.00 | $144K | −3.3% of holding | +0.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 45,384 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Chesley Philip | officer | Sale | 1,288 @ $93.00 | $120K | −3.8% of holding | +0.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 32,731 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Brown Grant | officer | Sale | 14,195 @ $88.78 | $1.3M | −23.2% of holding | +3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 46,928 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Chesley Philip | officer | Sale | 13,352 @ $88.78 | $1.2M | −28.2% of holding | +3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 34,019 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | HARDING JOHN R | director | Sale | 1,200 @ $82.66 | $99K | −13.1% of holding | +1.6% | +32.7% | 7,990 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Brown Grant | officer | Sale | 20,608 @ $83.06 | $1.7M | −31.7% of holding | −5.4% | +5.3% | 44,428 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Stewart Frank P. | officer | Sale | 8,226 @ $83.06 | $683K | −19.1% of holding | −5.4% | +5.3% | 34,893 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-17 | HARDING JOHN R | director | Sale | 903 @ $82.82 | $75K | −8.9% of holding | +4.4% | +9.0% | 9,190 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-22 | FEGO PAUL J | officer | Sale | 13,612 @ $95.00 | $1.3M | −20.0% of holding | −3.6% | −15.8% | 54,558 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-15 | Chesley Philip | officer | Sale | 2,664 @ $90.09 | $240K | −7.3% of holding | −5.3% | −12.4% | 33,592 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-16 | Chesley Philip | officer | Sale | 6,004 @ $78.49 | $471K | −17.4% of holding | +0.1% | −7.0% | 28,558 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-15 | Chesley Philip | officer | Sale | 5,371 @ $78.50 | $422K | −20.2% of holding | +0.9% | −4.5% | 21,277 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-07 | HARDING JOHN R | director | Sale | 1,450 @ $70.09 | $102K | −16.0% of holding | +3.4% | +4.4% | 7,597 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-05 | Chesley Philip | officer | Sale | 4,045 @ $70.15 | $284K | −11.8% of holding | +9.8% | +20.8% | 30,261 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
110 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Stewart Frank P. | officer | Gift | 1,874 | 41,195 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | LOWE ALAN S | director | Award / grant | 2,327 | 7,233 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | BRUNER JUDY | director | Award / grant | 2,327 | 12,526 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Koopmans Chris | director | Award / grant | 2,327 | 6,160 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Nelson Roderick | director | Award / grant | 2,327 | 12,515 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | RHINES WALDEN C | director | Award / grant | 2,327 | 74,065 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Feld Peter A | director | Award / grant | 2,327 | 4,823 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | HARDING JOHN R | director | Award / grant | 2,327 | 10,317 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | SPRADLEY SUSAN LOUISE | director | Award / grant | 2,327 | 14,351 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | CLEMMER RICHARD L | director | Award / grant | 2,327 | 6,410 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | BRUGGEWORTH ROBERT A | director | Withheld for tax | 16,379 | 354,290 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Brown Grant | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,628 | 54,447 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | CREVISTON STEVEN E | director | Withheld for tax | 3,949 | 124,261 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | FEGO PAUL J | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,944 | 79,460 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Chesley Philip | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,999 | 49,508 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Stewart Frank P. | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,262 | 51,348 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Harrison Gina | officer | Withheld for tax | 534 | 26,324 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Chesley Philip | officer | Award / grant | 10,158 | 52,507 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | CREVISTON STEVEN E | director | Award / grant | 8,833 | 128,210 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Brown Grant | officer | Award / grant | 13,691 | 59,075 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | BRUGGEWORTH ROBERT A | director | Award / grant | 50,789 | 370,669 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Harrison Gina | officer | Award / grant | 2,429 | 26,858 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | FEGO PAUL J | officer | Award / grant | 12,366 | 83,404 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Stewart Frank P. | officer | Award / grant | 7,508 | 53,610 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Chesley Philip | officer | Award / grant | 9,618 | 42,349 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | BRUGGEWORTH ROBERT A | director | Withheld for tax | 26,030 | 377,837 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Brown Grant | officer | Withheld for tax | 7,487 | 61,123 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | FEGO PAUL J | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,899 | 73,538 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | CREVISTON STEVEN E | director | Withheld for tax | 4,414 | 119,377 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Chesley Philip | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,167 | 47,371 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Stewart Frank P. | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,808 | 46,102 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Harrison Gina | officer | Withheld for tax | 803 | 30,099 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | FEGO PAUL J | officer | Award / grant | 26,406 | 78,437 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Stewart Frank P. | officer | Award / grant | 16,047 | 48,910 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Chesley Philip | officer | Award / grant | 18,967 | 50,538 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Brown Grant | officer | Award / grant | 28,376 | 68,610 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | BRUGGEWORTH ROBERT A | director | Award / grant | 102,425 | 403,867 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | CREVISTON STEVEN E | director | Award / grant | 21,810 | 123,791 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Harrison Gina | officer | Award / grant | 4,739 | 30,902 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | BRUGGEWORTH ROBERT A | director | Withheld for tax | 17,562 | 301,442 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-05-12 | 2025-04-23 | $1–15K |
| Julie Johnson | House | sale | 2025-02-12 | 2025-01-15 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2024-12-05 | 2024-11-15 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2024-06-05 | 2024-05-29 | $1–15K |
| Susie Lee | House | sale | 2022-12-29 | 2022-11-30 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2022-08-09 | 2022-07-19 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2022-07-07 | 2022-06-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2022-06-10 | 2022-05-10 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2022-06-10 | 2022-05-05 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2022-03-08 | 2022-02-14 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2021-12-07 | 2021-11-09 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2021-12-07 | 2021-11-02 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2021-11-09 | 2021-10-07 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2020-03-09 | 2020-02-11 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.