Issued 2026-09-16 at $23.83 · now $23.83 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, QMCO has typically landed between $14.14 and $40.22 — a range of −40.7% to +68.8% from the issuance price $23.83.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,997 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($23.83) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where QMCO has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $23.83 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $23.83 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $22.72 (-4.6%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $18.46–$26.99
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $14.14–$40.22
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,997 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-10-22 | −78.0% | −78.0% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-25 | −75.2% | −75.2% | +1.5% |
| 2008-09-26 | −74.8% | −75.5% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2024-11-20 | +2130.8% | +0.0% | +2130.8% |
| 2024-11-21 | +1658.0% | +0.0% | +1658.0% |
| 2024-11-18 | +1489.2% | +0.0% | +1489.2% |
4,997 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
55%
−0.2%
n=20
Feb
35%
−9.4%
n=20
Mar
45%
+4.0%
n=20
Apr
60%
+6.5%
n=20
May
55%
−0.7%
n=20
Jun
35%
−7.3%
n=20
Jul
45%
−0.5%
n=20
Aug
55%
+6.9%
n=20
Sep
45%
−1.2%
n=20
Oct
55%
+5.1%
n=20
Nov
60%
+15.2%
n=20
Dec
60%
+21.2%
n=20
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 | Craythorne Anthony | officer | Sale | 1,478 @ $10.73 | $16K | −9.9% of holding | +128.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,522 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | Meyrath Hugues | director | Sale | 6,232 @ $10.51 | $65K | −5.0% of holding | +2.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 118,468 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | Nash Laura A. | officer | Sale | 260 @ $10.51 | $3K | −2.4% of holding | +2.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,770 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-02 | Nash Laura A. | officer | Sale | 109 @ $5.44 | $593 | −1.0% of holding | +23.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,030 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-02 | Meyrath Hugues | director | Sale | 2,975 @ $10.86 | $32K | −10.7% of holding | −15.5% | −42.7% | 24,700 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-02 | Nash Laura A. | officer | Sale | 611 @ $10.86 | $7K | −5.2% of holding | −15.5% | −42.7% | 11,139 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-01 | Nash Laura A. | officer | Sale | 118 @ $9.91 | $1K | −1.0% of holding | −15.4% | −46.5% | 11,750 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-12 | Nash Laura A. | officer | Sale | 284 @ $7.40 | $2K | −2.4% of holding | +59.2% | −27.1% | 11,368 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-21 | Lerner James J | director | Sale | 2,784 @ $9.65 | $27K | −2.5% of holding | +15.3% | −26.2% | 110,848 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-21 | Cabrera Brian E | officer | Sale | 1,078 @ $9.65 | $10K | −3.6% of holding | +15.3% | −26.2% | 28,736 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-21 | Moorehead Lewis W. | officer | Sale | 179 @ $9.65 | $2K | −0.7% of holding | +15.3% | −26.2% | 24,971 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-15 | PACIFIC INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT CO LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 962,127 @ $10.25 | $9.9M | −100.0% of holding | −15.9% | −13.4% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-02 | Nash Laura A. | officer | Sale | 136 @ $12.85 | $2K | −1.2% of holding | −15.0% | −35.9% | 11,652 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-03 | Gianella Kenneth P. | officer | Sale | 1,279 @ $21.53 | $28K | −3.8% of holding | −39.4% | −66.8% | 32,402 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-16 | Lerner James J | director | Sale | 2,511 @ $35.68 | $90K | −2.3% of holding | −63.7% | −83.5% | 107,804 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-16 | Gianella Kenneth P. | officer | Sale | 1,487 @ $35.68 | $53K | −4.2% of holding | −63.7% | −83.5% | 33,681 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-16 | Spanjaard Henk Jan | officer | Sale | 935 @ $35.68 | $33K | −5.9% of holding | −63.7% | −83.5% | 14,903 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-03 | PACIFIC INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT CO LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 100,578 @ $61.52 | $6.2M | −16.1% of holding | −63.2% | −89.8% | 525,994 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-03 | PACIFIC INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT CO LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 92,970 @ $61.52 | $5.7M | −12.5% of holding | −63.2% | −89.8% | 652,994 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-03 | PACIFIC INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT CO LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 22,582 @ $61.52 | $1.4M | −2.3% of holding | −63.2% | −89.8% | 962,127 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-03 | PACIFIC INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT CO LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 6,393 @ $61.52 | $393K | −0.9% of holding | −63.2% | −89.8% | 710,036 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-03 | PACIFIC INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT CO LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 3,783 @ $61.52 | $233K | −0.5% of holding | −63.2% | −89.8% | 743,789 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-03 | PACIFIC INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT CO LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,889 @ $61.52 | $116K | −0.2% of holding | −63.2% | −89.8% | 760,650 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-11-08 | Lerner James J | director | Sale | 6,505 @ $4.43 | $29K | −5.7% of holding | +286.6% | +208.0% | 107,491 | Form 4 · filed 27 days after the trade |
| 2024-11-08 | Cabrera Brian E | officer | Sale | 5,387 @ $4.43 | $24K | −16.7% of holding | +286.6% | +208.0% | 26,958 | Form 4 · filed 27 days after the trade |
| 2024-11-08 | Gianella Kenneth P. | officer | Sale | 2,590 @ $4.43 | $11K | −7.1% of holding | +286.6% | +208.0% | 33,910 | Form 4 · filed 27 days after the trade |
| 2024-11-08 | Nash Laura A. | officer | Sale | 685 @ $4.43 | $3K | −5.7% of holding | +286.6% | +208.0% | 11,431 | Form 4 · filed 27 days after the trade |
| 2024-11-08 | Spanjaard Henk Jan | officer | Sale | 394 @ $4.43 | $2K | −2.5% of holding | +286.6% | +208.0% | 15,662 | Form 4 · filed 27 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
52 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-04 | FICHTHORN JOHN | director | Conversion | 11,020,645 | 11,020,645 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Dialectic Technology SPV LLC | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 11,020,645 | 11,020,645 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | FICHTHORN JOHN | director | Award / grant | 3,083,975 | 14,104,620 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Dialectic Technology SPV LLC | tenPercentOwner | Award / grant | 3,083,975 | 14,104,620 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | FICHTHORN JOHN | director | Conversion | 57,241,228 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Dialectic Technology SPV LLC | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | — | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Dialectic Technology SPV LLC | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | — | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | FICHTHORN JOHN | director | Conversion | 57,241,228 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | FICHTHORN JOHN | director | Other acquisition | 105,911 | 105,911 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Dialectic Technology SPV LLC | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 105,911 | 105,911 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Dialectic Technology SPV LLC | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 105,911 | 105,911 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | FICHTHORN JOHN | director | Other acquisition | 105,911 | 105,911 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Meyrath Hugues | director | Award / grant | 850,000 | 850,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Nash Laura A. | officer | Award / grant | 49,500 | 49,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Craythorne Anthony | officer | Award / grant | 148,500 | 148,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | White William Hillis | officer | Award / grant | 25,000 | 25,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | Clancy James C | director | Award / grant | 12,000 | 13,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | Jaworksi Don | director | Award / grant | 12,000 | 39,675 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | White Yue Zhou | director | Award / grant | 12,000 | 41,139 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | Meyrath Hugues | director | Award / grant | 62,500 | 124,700 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | Meyrath Hugues | director | Award / grant | 50,000 | 50,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | Tracy John R. | director | Award / grant | 12,000 | 27,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | FICHTHORN JOHN | director | Award / grant | 12,000 | 27,271 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | Blevins Tony J | director | Award / grant | 12,000 | 13,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | Craythorne Anthony | officer | Award / grant | 15,000 | 15,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-18 | Dialectic Technology SPV LLC | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | — | — | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-18 | FICHTHORN JOHN | director | Other acquisition | 0 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-18 | Dialectic Technology SPV LLC | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | — | — | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-18 | FICHTHORN JOHN | director | Other acquisition | 0 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-01 | Meyrath Hugues | director | Award / grant | 37,500 | 62,200 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-01 | Meyrath Hugues | director | Award / grant | 50,000 | 50,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-01 | Blevins Tony J | director | Award / grant | 1,000 | 1,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-01 | Clancy James C | director | Award / grant | 1,000 | 1,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-01 | Nash Laura A. | officer | Award / grant | 500 | 11,868 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-23 | FICHTHORN JOHN | director | Other acquisition | 2,653,308 | 2,653,308 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-23 | FICHTHORN JOHN | director | Other acquisition | 2,653,308 | 2,653,308 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-01 | FICHTHORN JOHN | director | Award / grant | 4,405 | 15,271 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-21 | Cabrera Brian E | officer | Award / grant | 1,874 | 29,814 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-21 | Moorehead Lewis W. | officer | Award / grant | 333 | 25,150 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-21 | Lerner James J | director | Award / grant | 5,828 | 113,632 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.