QDELQuidelOrtho CorporationHealthcare · Medical - Instruments & Suppliesas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $10.77 · now $10.77 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, QDEL has typically landed between $7.79 and $13.18 — a range of −27.7% to +22.4% from the issuance price $10.77.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($10.77) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where QDEL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $10.77 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$7.79worst · -27.7%$13.18best · +22.4%
  • now $10.77 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $10.47 (-2.8%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $9.51–$11.43
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $7.79–$13.18
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-08-05−47.6%−47.6%+0.0%
2020-08-03−46.1%−46.1%+2.8%
2020-08-06−45.9%−45.9%+0.0%
3 best
2020-04-09+117.8%+0.0%+117.8%
2020-04-13+84.6%−0.2%+111.3%
2020-09-08+82.8%+0.0%+82.8%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
25%
−2.3%
n=20
Feb
40%
−5.0%
n=20
Mar
60%
+2.1%
n=20
Apr
45%
−1.4%
n=20
May
65%
+3.3%
n=20
Jun
65%
+5.9%
n=20
Jul
60%
+4.9%
n=20
Aug
45%
−0.8%
n=20
Sep
60%
+1.9%
n=20
Oct
40%
−1.3%
n=20
Nov
50%
+0.6%
n=20
Dec
60%
+1.5%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$35$102026-02-13: 3 insider purchases, $568K — Blaser Brian J., Strobeck Matthew, Busky Joseph M.2025-12-10: 1 insider purchase, $21K — RHOADS ANN D2025-11-26: 1 insider purchase, $10K — Wilkins Joseph D Jr.2025-11-25: 1 insider sale, $112K — WIDDER KENNETH J2025-11-24: 1 insider purchase, $124K — Busky Joseph M.2025-11-21: 1 insider purchase, $22K — POLAN MARY LAKE PH D2025-11-19: 1 insider purchase, $502K — Blaser Brian J.2025-11: 4 open-market purchases, $659K2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $112K2025-12: 1 open-market purchase, $21K2026-02: 3 open-market purchases, $568K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Blaser Brian J. — Purchase on 2026-02-13, filed same daydirector Strobeck Matthew — Purchase on 2026-02-13, filed same dayofficer Busky Joseph M. — Purchase on 2026-02-13, filed same daydirector RHOADS ANN D — Purchase on 2025-12-10, filed same daydirector Wilkins Joseph D Jr. — Purchase on 2025-11-26, filed 5 days after the tradedirector WIDDER KENNETH J — Sale on 2025-11-25, filed same dayofficer Busky Joseph M. — Purchase on 2025-11-24, filed 1 day after the tradedirector POLAN MARY LAKE PH D — Purchase on 2025-11-21, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Blaser Brian J. — Purchase on 2025-11-19, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-02-13Blaser Brian J.officerPurchase10,540 @ $23.59$249K+35.7% of holding−17.3%−52.1%40,073Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-13Strobeck MatthewdirectorPurchase10,000 @ $23.96$240K+56.3% of holding−17.3%−52.1%27,775Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-13Busky Joseph M.officerPurchase3,370 @ $23.66$80K+48.7% of holding−17.3%−52.1%10,290Form 4 · filed same day
2025-12-10RHOADS ANN DdirectorPurchase750 @ $28.27$21K+5.3% of holding+14.4%−59.4%15,021Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-26Wilkins Joseph D Jr.directorPurchase370 @ $27.95$10K+3.2% of holding+5.0%−64.0%11,876Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-11-25WIDDER KENNETH JdirectorSale4,026 @ $27.81$112K−9.8% of holding+1.6%−66.4%37,061Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-24Busky Joseph M.officerPurchase4,770 @ $26.06$124K+221.9% of holding+5.2%−64.3%6,920Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-21POLAN MARY LAKE PH DdirectorPurchase1,000 @ $22.43$22K+8.6% of holding+12.7%−63.9%12,640Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-11-19Blaser Brian J.officerPurchase23,500 @ $21.34$502K+389.5% of holding+34.9%−56.7%29,533Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

291 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-15Hanson Bryan MichaelofficerWithheld for tax1628,055Form 4
2026-08-15Hanson Bryan MichaelofficerOption exercise4468,217Form 4
2026-08-15Hanson Bryan MichaelofficerOption exercise4460Form 4
2026-07-15Young Micah WofficerAward / grant356,555356,555Form 4
2026-07-01Hanson Bryan MichaelofficerWithheld for tax2,0967,771Form 4
2026-07-01Hanson Bryan MichaelofficerOption exercise5,79711,595Form 4
2026-07-01Hanson Bryan MichaelofficerOption exercise5,7979,867Form 4
2026-06-25Dilsaver Evelyn SdirectorAward / grant15,53215,532Form 4
2026-06-25Huennekens R ScottdirectorAward / grant15,53215,532Form 4
2026-06-25Michael Edward L.directorAward / grant15,53215,532Form 4
2026-06-25Michael Edward L.directorAward / grant3,5133,513Form 4
2026-06-25Michael Edward L.directorAward / grant1,0531,053Form 4
2026-06-25POLAN MARY LAKE PH DdirectorAward / grant15,53215,532Form 4
2026-06-25POLAN MARY LAKE PH DdirectorAward / grant5,5475,547Form 4
2026-06-25POLAN MARY LAKE PH DdirectorAward / grant1,6641,664Form 4
2026-06-25WIDDER KENNETH JdirectorAward / grant15,53215,532Form 4
2026-06-25WIDDER KENNETH JdirectorAward / grant6,6566,656Form 4
2026-06-25WIDDER KENNETH JdirectorAward / grant1,9971,997Form 4
2026-06-25RHOADS ANN DdirectorAward / grant15,53215,532Form 4
2026-06-25RHOADS ANN DdirectorAward / grant3,6983,698Form 4
2026-06-25RHOADS ANN DdirectorAward / grant369369Form 4
2026-06-25Wilkins Joseph D Jr.directorAward / grant15,53215,532Form 4
2026-06-25BUECHLER KENNETH FdirectorAward / grant15,53215,532Form 4
2026-06-25BUECHLER KENNETH FdirectorAward / grant12,20412,204Form 4
2026-06-25BUECHLER KENNETH FdirectorAward / grant3,6613,661Form 4
2026-06-25Chiminski John RdirectorAward / grant15,53215,532Form 4
2026-06-25Chiminski John RdirectorAward / grant5,5475,547Form 4
2026-06-25Chiminski John RdirectorAward / grant1,1091,109Form 4
2026-06-06BUECHLER KENNETH FdirectorOption exercise1,6590Form 4
2026-06-06BUECHLER KENNETH FdirectorAward / grant1,659110,409Form 4
2026-06-06BUECHLER KENNETH FdirectorAward / grant497110,906Form 4
2026-06-06BUECHLER KENNETH FdirectorOption exercise4970Form 4
2026-06-06Michael Edward L.directorAward / grant96329,144Form 4
2026-06-06Michael Edward L.directorAward / grant28929,433Form 4
2026-06-06Michael Edward L.directorOption exercise9630Form 4
2026-06-06Michael Edward L.directorOption exercise2890Form 4
2026-06-06POLAN MARY LAKE PH DdirectorAward / grant74920,218Form 4
2026-06-06POLAN MARY LAKE PH DdirectorAward / grant22420,442Form 4
2026-06-06POLAN MARY LAKE PH DdirectorOption exercise7490Form 4
2026-06-06POLAN MARY LAKE PH DdirectorOption exercise2240Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.