Issued 2026-09-25 at $201.97 · now $201.97 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, QCOM has typically landed between $171.98 and $238.87 — a range of −14.8% to +18.3% from the issuance price $201.97.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,692 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($201.97) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where QCOM has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $201.97 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $201.97 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $201.97 (+0.0%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $187.61–$216.33
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $171.98–$238.87
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-20 | −31.4% | −31.4% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-18 | −29.9% | −29.9% | +2.9% |
| 2020-02-13 | −27.8% | −27.8% | +0.6% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-04-10 | +85.5% | +0.0% | +85.5% |
| 2026-04-23 | +77.8% | +0.0% | +77.8% |
| 2026-04-09 | +71.5% | +0.0% | +71.5% |
4,692 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 80 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$137.31
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 34.2× · n=80$318.79
- Analyst target · range $120.00–$300.00$220.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-25$201.97
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-25 | AMON CRISTIANO R | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $200.00 | $2.0M | −5.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 177,568 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-21 | AMON CRISTIANO R | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $195.00 | $1.9M | −5.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 187,568 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | Palkhiwala Akash J. | director | Sale | 739 @ $183.84 | $136K | −3.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 18,543 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-11 | Palkhiwala Akash J. | director | Sale | 696 @ $181.89 | $127K | −3.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 19,790 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-11 | Palkhiwala Akash J. | director | Sale | 508 @ $182.69 | $93K | −2.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 19,282 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-11 | Palkhiwala Akash J. | director | Sale | 347 @ $184.63 | $64K | −1.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 18,196 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-11 | Palkhiwala Akash J. | director | Sale | 82 @ $180.87 | $15K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 20,486 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-11 | Palkhiwala Akash J. | director | Sale | 48 @ $179.76 | $9K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 20,568 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-11 | Palkhiwala Akash J. | director | Sale | 36 @ $178.63 | $6K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 20,616 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-11 | Palkhiwala Akash J. | director | Sale | 32 @ $177.62 | $6K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 20,652 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-11 | Palkhiwala Akash J. | director | Sale | 12 @ $185.31 | $2K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 18,184 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-31 | Grech Patricia Y | officer | Sale | 208 @ $170.00 | $35K | −100.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-21 | Grech Patricia Y | officer | Sale | 625 @ $162.85 | $102K | −75.0% of holding | +22.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 208 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-12 | Palkhiwala Akash J. | director | Sale | 1,080 @ $163.45 | $177K | −4.9% of holding | +12.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 21,096 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-12 | Palkhiwala Akash J. | director | Sale | 748 @ $162.56 | $122K | −3.3% of holding | +12.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 22,176 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-12 | Palkhiwala Akash J. | director | Sale | 260 @ $161.77 | $42K | −1.1% of holding | +12.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 22,924 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-12 | Palkhiwala Akash J. | director | Sale | 248 @ $164.73 | $41K | −1.2% of holding | +12.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 20,848 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-12 | Palkhiwala Akash J. | director | Sale | 164 @ $165.34 | $27K | −0.8% of holding | +12.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 20,684 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-03 | ACE HEATHER S | director | Sale | 3,200 @ $147.04 | $471K | −8.1% of holding | +8.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 36,535 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-14 | Palkhiwala Akash J. | director | Sale | 581 @ $178.27 | $104K | −2.3% of holding | −11.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 25,103 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-14 | Palkhiwala Akash J. | director | Sale | 535 @ $179.13 | $96K | −2.1% of holding | −11.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 24,568 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-14 | Palkhiwala Akash J. | director | Sale | 377 @ $182.31 | $69K | −1.6% of holding | −11.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 23,622 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-14 | Palkhiwala Akash J. | director | Sale | 329 @ $180.21 | $59K | −1.3% of holding | −11.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 24,239 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-14 | Palkhiwala Akash J. | director | Sale | 240 @ $181.23 | $43K | −1.0% of holding | −11.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 23,999 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-14 | Palkhiwala Akash J. | director | Sale | 166 @ $183.15 | $30K | −0.7% of holding | −11.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 23,456 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-14 | Palkhiwala Akash J. | director | Sale | 108 @ $186.26 | $20K | −0.5% of holding | −11.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 23,289 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-14 | Palkhiwala Akash J. | director | Sale | 61 @ $187.15 | $11K | −0.3% of holding | −11.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 23,228 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-14 | Palkhiwala Akash J. | director | Sale | 59 @ $183.98 | $11K | −0.3% of holding | −11.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 23,397 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-14 | Palkhiwala Akash J. | director | Sale | 32 @ $189.42 | $6K | −0.1% of holding | −11.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 23,184 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-14 | Palkhiwala Akash J. | director | Sale | 12 @ $187.90 | $2K | −0.1% of holding | −11.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 23,216 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-11 | Palkhiwala Akash J. | director | Sale | 750 @ $194.65 | $146K | −2.7% of holding | −14.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 27,140 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-11 | Palkhiwala Akash J. | director | Sale | 343 @ $195.48 | $67K | −1.3% of holding | −14.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 26,797 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-11 | Palkhiwala Akash J. | director | Sale | 294 @ $193.81 | $57K | −1.0% of holding | −14.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 27,890 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-11 | Palkhiwala Akash J. | director | Sale | 215 @ $202.75 | $44K | −0.8% of holding | −14.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 25,847 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-11 | Palkhiwala Akash J. | director | Sale | 180 @ $200.54 | $36K | −0.7% of holding | −14.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 26,170 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-11 | Palkhiwala Akash J. | director | Sale | 177 @ $199.71 | $35K | −0.7% of holding | −14.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 26,350 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-11 | Palkhiwala Akash J. | director | Sale | 163 @ $203.25 | $33K | −0.6% of holding | −14.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 25,684 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-11 | Palkhiwala Akash J. | director | Sale | 120 @ $197.78 | $24K | −0.4% of holding | −14.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 26,629 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-11 | Palkhiwala Akash J. | director | Sale | 108 @ $201.69 | $22K | −0.4% of holding | −14.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 26,062 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-11 | Palkhiwala Akash J. | director | Sale | 102 @ $198.54 | $20K | −0.4% of holding | −14.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 26,527 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-11 | Palkhiwala Akash J. | director | Sale | 48 @ $196.43 | $9K | −0.2% of holding | −14.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 26,749 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-21 | Grech Patricia Y | officer | Sale | 829 @ $201.77 | $167K | −100.0% of holding | −3.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-12 | Palkhiwala Akash J. | director | Sale | 366 @ $209.69 | $77K | −1.2% of holding | −3.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 29,252 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | Palkhiwala Akash J. | director | Sale | 336 @ $207.52 | $70K | −1.1% of holding | −3.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 29,798 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | Palkhiwala Akash J. | director | Sale | 188 @ $205.40 | $39K | −0.6% of holding | −3.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 30,266 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | Palkhiwala Akash J. | director | Sale | 180 @ $208.63 | $38K | −0.6% of holding | −3.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 29,618 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | Palkhiwala Akash J. | director | Sale | 156 @ $210.44 | $33K | −0.5% of holding | −3.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 29,096 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | Palkhiwala Akash J. | director | Sale | 132 @ $206.51 | $27K | −0.4% of holding | −3.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 30,134 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | Palkhiwala Akash J. | director | Sale | 98 @ $204.53 | $20K | −0.3% of holding | −3.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 30,454 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | Palkhiwala Akash J. | director | Sale | 86 @ $222.61 | $19K | −0.3% of holding | −3.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 28,446 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | Palkhiwala Akash J. | director | Sale | 86 @ $219.58 | $19K | −0.3% of holding | −3.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 28,654 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | Palkhiwala Akash J. | director | Sale | 84 @ $223.27 | $19K | −0.3% of holding | −3.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 28,362 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | Palkhiwala Akash J. | director | Sale | 82 @ $215.52 | $18K | −0.3% of holding | −3.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 28,802 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | Palkhiwala Akash J. | director | Sale | 78 @ $226.49 | $18K | −0.3% of holding | −3.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 28,196 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | Palkhiwala Akash J. | director | Sale | 74 @ $220.73 | $16K | −0.3% of holding | −3.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 28,580 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | Palkhiwala Akash J. | director | Sale | 74 @ $212.64 | $16K | −0.3% of holding | −3.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 28,956 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | Palkhiwala Akash J. | director | Sale | 72 @ $203.68 | $15K | −0.2% of holding | −3.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 30,552 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | Palkhiwala Akash J. | director | Sale | 66 @ $211.52 | $14K | −0.2% of holding | −3.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 29,030 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | Palkhiwala Akash J. | director | Sale | 56 @ $224.48 | $13K | −0.2% of holding | −3.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 28,306 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | Palkhiwala Akash J. | director | Sale | 60 @ $202.47 | $12K | −0.2% of holding | −3.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 30,624 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
172 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Grech Patricia Y | officer | Withheld for tax | 441 | 833 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Grech Patricia Y | officer | Option exercise | 427 | 427 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Grech Patricia Y | officer | Option exercise | 45 | 3,247 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Grech Patricia Y | officer | Option exercise | 171 | 1,230 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Grech Patricia Y | officer | Option exercise | 316 | 1,059 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Grech Patricia Y | officer | Option exercise | 172 | 2,448 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Grech Patricia Y | officer | Option exercise | 316 | 743 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Grech Patricia Y | officer | Option exercise | 44 | 1,274 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Grech Patricia Y | officer | Option exercise | 316 | 3,291 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Grech Patricia Y | officer | Option exercise | 317 | 2,619 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Grech Patricia Y | officer | Option exercise | 428 | 428 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | TRICOIRE JEAN-PASCAL | director | Award / grant | 182 | 13,704 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | MCLAUGHLIN MARK D | director | Award / grant | 392 | 13,300 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Grech Patricia Y | officer | Withheld for tax | 440 | 829 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Grech Patricia Y | officer | Option exercise | 44 | 784 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Grech Patricia Y | officer | Option exercise | 45 | 3,906 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Grech Patricia Y | officer | Option exercise | 425 | 852 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Grech Patricia Y | officer | Option exercise | 171 | 955 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Grech Patricia Y | officer | Option exercise | 316 | 740 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Grech Patricia Y | officer | Option exercise | 424 | 424 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Grech Patricia Y | officer | Option exercise | 315 | 3,591 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Grech Patricia Y | officer | Option exercise | 171 | 2,923 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Grech Patricia Y | officer | Option exercise | 316 | 3,094 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Grech Patricia Y | officer | Option exercise | 314 | 1,269 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | TRICOIRE JEAN-PASCAL | director | Award / grant | 262 | 13,481 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | MCLAUGHLIN MARK D | director | Award / grant | 538 | 12,850 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-17 | ROSENFELD IRENE B | director | Award / grant | 2,563 | 4,694 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-17 | TRICOIRE JEAN-PASCAL | director | Award / grant | 2,563 | 13,178 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-17 | ACEVEDO SYLVIA | director | Award / grant | 2,563 | 9,008 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-17 | FIELDS MARK | director | Award / grant | 2,563 | 9,988 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-17 | Miller Jamie S | director | Award / grant | 2,563 | 4,694 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-17 | MYERS MARIE | director | Award / grant | 2,563 | 5,389 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-17 | LIVERMORE ANN M | director | Award / grant | 2,563 | 4,694 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-17 | Henderson Jeffrey William | director | Award / grant | 2,563 | 14,599 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-17 | MCLAUGHLIN MARK D | director | Award / grant | 2,563 | 12,246 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-17 | Kolter Jeremy Z | director | Award / grant | 2,563 | 3,623 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-08 | MCLAUGHLIN MARK D | director | Disposition | 759 | 29,578 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-08 | Henderson Jeffrey William | director | Disposition | 759 | 12,036 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-08 | LIVERMORE ANN M | director | Option exercise | 2,355 | 1,683 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-08 | Miller Jamie S | director | Option exercise | 2,355 | 1,683 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-25 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-27 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-15 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-01 | $15–50K |
| Maria Elvira Salazar | House | purchase | 2026-06-08 | 2026-05-13 | $15–50K |
| Maria Elvira Salazar | House | purchase | 2026-06-08 | 2026-05-13 | $1–15K |
| Sara Jacobs | House | sale | 2026-05-20 | 2026-05-06 | $500K–1M |
| Sara Jacobs | House | sale | 2026-05-20 | 2026-05-07 | $500K–1M |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-13 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-24 | $1–15K |
| Jared Moskowitz | House | sale | 2026-04-30 | 2026-03-31 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-05 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-17 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-24 | $15–50K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.