Issued 2026-09-16 at $16.27 · now $16.27 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, QBTS has typically landed between $9.96 and $29.69 — a range of −38.8% to +82.5% from the issuance price $16.27.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,424 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-12-11 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($16.27) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where QBTS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $16.27 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $16.27 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $16.25 (-0.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $13.44–$19.07
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $9.96–$29.69
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,424 windows spanning 2020-12-11 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2022-10-06 | −69.1% | −70.1% | +2.9% |
| 2022-10-05 | −68.8% | −68.8% | +7.2% |
| 2022-10-07 | −68.2% | −70.9% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2024-11-18 | +522.2% | +0.0% | +522.2% |
| 2023-05-08 | +445.7% | −0.8% | +445.7% |
| 2023-05-09 | +444.6% | −0.6% | +447.0% |
1,424 overlapping windows · 2020-12-11 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
17%
−10.1%
n=6
Feb
33%
+8.6%
n=6
Mar
33%
+2.7%
n=6
Apr
33%
−4.3%
n=6
May
50%
+56.0%
n=6
Jun
50%
+3.4%
n=6
Jul
33%
−5.3%
n=6
Aug
33%
−13.6%
n=6
Sep
33%
+8.5%
n=6
Oct
60%
−6.0%
n=5
Nov
60%
+28.1%
n=5
Dec
60%
+32.4%
n=5
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | DiLullo John D | director | Sale | 1,100 @ $18.00 | $20K | −5.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 20,210 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-20 | AMES SOPHIE C | officer | Sale | 3,070 @ $16.95 | $52K | −0.5% of holding | +13.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 589,009 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Markovich John M. | officer | Sale | 100,000 @ $25.75 | $2.6M | −7.4% of holding | −35.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,242,820 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Markovich John M. | officer | Sale | 100,000 @ $25.68 | $2.6M | −8.0% of holding | −35.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,142,820 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Ghai Rohit | director | Sale | 13,518 @ $26.41 | $357K | −36.4% of holding | −35.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 23,617 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Markovich John M. | officer | Sale | 46,043 @ $24.01 | $1.1M | −3.3% of holding | −23.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,342,820 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-09 | Markovich John M. | officer | Sale | 70 @ $26.54 | $2K | −0.0% of holding | −17.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,388,863 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-08 | BARATZ ALAN E | director | Sale | 687,627 @ $26.13 | $18.0M | −17.2% of holding | −20.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,299,771 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-08 | Markovich John M. | officer | Sale | 50,979 @ $26.24 | $1.3M | −3.5% of holding | −20.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,388,933 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-05 | DiLullo John D | director | Sale | 7,850 @ $24.43 | $192K | −26.9% of holding | −14.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 21,310 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Markovich John M. | officer | Sale | 2,908 @ $31.00 | $90K | −0.2% of holding | −23.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,439,912 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-22 | Markovich John M. | officer | Sale | 328,752 @ $27.70 | $9.1M | −18.6% of holding | −20.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,442,820 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | Nguyen Diane | officer | Sale | 40,000 @ $25.01 | $1.0M | −7.2% of holding | −1.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 517,149 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | AMES SOPHIE C | officer | Sale | 23,025 @ $18.98 | $437K | −3.7% of holding | +26.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 596,803 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-20 | AMES SOPHIE C | officer | Sale | 3,070 @ $21.35 | $66K | −0.5% of holding | −19.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 643,678 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Ghai Rohit | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $17.62 | $176K | −26.5% of holding | +14.3% | −19.8% | 27,778 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-13 | Markovich John M. | officer | Sale | 10,706 @ $17.63 | $189K | −0.7% of holding | −8.4% | −19.6% | 1,451,427 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-13 | Nguyen Diane | officer | Sale | 2,532 @ $17.63 | $45K | −0.4% of holding | −8.4% | −19.6% | 563,674 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | DiLullo John D | director | Sale | 8,000 @ $18.01 | $144K | −28.8% of holding | −21.9% | −24.8% | 19,803 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-13 | Nguyen Diane | officer | Sale | 1,451 @ $19.76 | $29K | −0.3% of holding | −9.6% | −7.8% | 538,138 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-14 | BARATZ ALAN E | director | Sale | 35,013 @ $28.06 | $983K | −1.3% of holding | −33.5% | −52.7% | 2,598,150 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-14 | Markovich John M. | officer | Sale | 9,179 @ $28.06 | $258K | −0.6% of holding | −33.5% | −52.7% | 1,462,133 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-14 | Nguyen Diane | officer | Sale | 4,519 @ $28.06 | $127K | −0.8% of holding | −33.5% | −52.7% | 539,589 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-13 | Nguyen Diane | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $28.86 | $577K | −3.5% of holding | −32.9% | −50.1% | 544,108 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-22 | BARATZ ALAN E | director | Sale | 793,712 @ $30.13 | $23.9M | −23.2% of holding | −21.0% | −39.7% | 2,633,163 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-22 | Markovich John M. | officer | Sale | 100,000 @ $30.03 | $3.0M | −6.4% of holding | −21.0% | −39.7% | 1,471,312 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-15 | Markovich John M. | officer | Sale | 11,562 @ $23.89 | $276K | −0.8% of holding | +19.0% | −12.9% | 1,471,312 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-15 | Ghai Rohit | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $24.28 | $243K | −20.9% of holding | +19.0% | −12.9% | 37,778 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-15 | Nguyen Diane | officer | Sale | 2,733 @ $23.89 | $65K | −0.5% of holding | +19.0% | −12.9% | 563,309 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | DiLullo John D | director | Sale | 8,000 @ $27.36 | $219K | −22.3% of holding | +11.0% | −21.0% | 27,803 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-04 | Markovich John M. | officer | Sale | 100,000 @ $27.56 | $2.8M | −6.3% of holding | +7.5% | −18.7% | 1,482,874 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-03 | Markovich John M. | officer | Sale | 100,000 @ $25.05 | $2.5M | −6.3% of holding | +21.3% | −13.4% | 1,482,874 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-03 | Nielsen Kirstjen | director | Sale | 7,000 @ $22.62 | $158K | −5.8% of holding | +21.3% | −13.4% | 112,673 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-20 | Markovich John M. | officer | Sale | 200,000 @ $22.94 | $4.6M | −11.9% of holding | +51.7% | +20.0% | 1,482,874 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | WEST STEVEN M | director | Purchase | 82 @ $21.89 | $2K | ownership Δ n/a | +6.1% | −0.9% | 82 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-13 | BARATZ ALAN E | director | Sale | 168,102 @ $23.17 | $3.9M | −6.0% of holding | +0.2% | −29.0% | 2,633,163 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-13 | Markovich John M. | officer | Sale | 98,060 @ $23.17 | $2.3M | −6.2% of holding | +0.2% | −29.0% | 1,482,874 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-13 | Nguyen Diane | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $23.66 | $473K | −3.4% of holding | +0.2% | −29.0% | 568,845 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-13 | Nguyen Diane | officer | Sale | 2,803 @ $23.17 | $65K | −0.5% of holding | +0.2% | −29.0% | 566,042 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-11 | BARATZ ALAN E | director | Sale | 806,288 @ $28.87 | $23.3M | −22.3% of holding | −4.4% | −33.8% | 2,801,265 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-14 | BARATZ ALAN E | director | Sale | 31,369 @ $43.74 | $1.4M | −1.1% of holding | −41.9% | −56.6% | 2,801,265 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-14 | Nguyen Diane | officer | Sale | 20,827 @ $43.74 | $911K | −3.4% of holding | −41.9% | −56.6% | 588,845 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-14 | Markovich John M. | officer | Sale | 7,994 @ $43.74 | $350K | −0.5% of holding | −41.9% | −56.6% | 1,580,934 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-15 | Ghai Rohit | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $17.93 | $179K | −17.3% of holding | +134.6% | −6.7% | 47,778 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-15 | DiLullo John D | director | Sale | 8,000 @ $17.93 | $143K | −18.1% of holding | +134.6% | −6.7% | 36,295 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-12 | Markovich John M. | officer | Sale | 50,000 @ $17.50 | $875K | −3.0% of holding | +127.6% | −4.0% | 1,599,511 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-11 | Markovich John M. | officer | Sale | 50,000 @ $16.30 | $815K | −3.0% of holding | +100.3% | +4.9% | 1,599,511 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-10 | Markovich John M. | officer | Sale | 50,000 @ $16.30 | $815K | −3.1% of holding | +115.4% | +8.4% | 1,549,511 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-13 | WEST STEVEN M | director | Sale | 119,000 @ $18.06 | $2.1M | −46.1% of holding | −6.7% | −5.3% | 139,018 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-13 | Nguyen Diane | officer | Sale | 39,010 @ $18.18 | $709K | −6.3% of holding | −6.7% | −5.3% | 575,968 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-13 | Nguyen Diane | officer | Sale | 25,634 @ $18.11 | $464K | −4.3% of holding | −6.7% | −5.3% | 575,968 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-13 | WEST STEVEN M | director | Sale | 25,000 @ $18.18 | $454K | −18.0% of holding | −6.7% | −5.3% | 114,018 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-13 | Nguyen Diane | officer | Sale | 4,626 @ $18.54 | $86K | −0.8% of holding | −6.7% | −5.3% | 612,173 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-12 | Markovich John M. | officer | Sale | 100,000 @ $18.00 | $1.8M | −6.0% of holding | −13.1% | −2.2% | 1,558,753 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-16 | DiLullo John D | director | Sale | 15,000 @ $16.40 | $246K | −25.3% of holding | +15.7% | +34.8% | 44,295 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-16 | Nielsen Kirstjen | director | Sale | 13,000 @ $16.04 | $209K | −9.8% of holding | +15.7% | +34.8% | 119,673 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-13 | DiLullo John D | director | Sale | 22,000 @ $15.12 | $333K | −27.1% of holding | +6.6% | +57.2% | 59,295 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-12 | Biscay Roger | director | Sale | 106,626 @ $16.85 | $1.8M | −88.2% of holding | −1.7% | +61.4% | 14,260 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-12 | Nielsen Kirstjen | director | Sale | 58,644 @ $16.21 | $951K | −30.7% of holding | −1.7% | +61.4% | 132,673 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-12 | Ghai Rohit | director | Sale | 43,517 @ $16.80 | $731K | −43.0% of holding | −1.7% | +61.4% | 57,778 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
119 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Nguyen Diane | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,191 | 503,302 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | AMES SOPHIE C | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,544 | 563,615 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | BLACK STANLEY T | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,535 | 133,278 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | AMES SOPHIE C | officer | Withheld for tax | 23,850 | 565,159 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Nguyen Diane | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,042 | 505,850 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-14 | BARATZ ALAN E | director | Withheld for tax | 52,320 | 3,247,451 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-14 | Markovich John M. | officer | Withheld for tax | 8,607 | 1,123,629 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-14 | Nguyen Diane | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,066 | 509,892 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-14 | AMES SOPHIE C | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,180 | 592,079 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Markovich John M. | officer | Withheld for tax | 10,584 | 1,132,236 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Nguyen Diane | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,191 | 513,958 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | AMES SOPHIE C | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,544 | 595,259 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | BLACK STANLEY T | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,535 | 134,813 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | BARATZ ALAN E | director | Option exercise | 474,395 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | BARATZ ALAN E | director | Option exercise | 474,395 | 3,774,166 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | BARATZ ALAN E | director | Option exercise | 213,232 | 3,987,398 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | BARATZ ALAN E | director | Option exercise | 213,232 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | DiLullo John D | director | Award / grant | 9,357 | 29,160 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Nielsen Kirstjen | director | Award / grant | 9,357 | 122,030 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Holt Sharon E | director | Award / grant | 9,357 | 84,696 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Ghai Rohit | director | Award / grant | 9,357 | 37,135 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Biscay Roger | director | Award / grant | 9,357 | 23,617 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | WEST STEVEN M | director | Award / grant | 9,357 | 29,194 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | Markovich John M. | officer | Option exercise | 207,926 | 1,650,746 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | Markovich John M. | officer | Option exercise | 207,926 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | Markovich John M. | officer | Option exercise | 120,826 | 1,771,572 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | Markovich John M. | officer | Option exercise | 120,826 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | AMES SOPHIE C | officer | Withheld for tax | 23,850 | 619,828 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | BARATZ ALAN E | director | Withheld for tax | 18,542 | 3,299,771 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Nguyen Diane | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,459 | 557,149 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | BARATZ ALAN E | director | Award / grant | 753,941 | 3,318,313 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-13 | BARATZ ALAN E | director | Withheld for tax | 33,778 | 2,564,372 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-13 | Markovich John M. | officer | Withheld for tax | 8,607 | 1,442,820 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-13 | Nguyen Diane | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,066 | 559,608 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-13 | AMES SOPHIE C | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,180 | 646,748 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-19 | Nguyen Diane | officer | Award / grant | 28,068 | 566,206 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-22 | BARATZ ALAN E | director | Option exercise | 793,712 | 3,426,875 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-22 | BARATZ ALAN E | director | Option exercise | 793,712 | 474,395 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-22 | Markovich John M. | officer | Option exercise | 100,000 | 1,571,312 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-22 | Markovich John M. | officer | Option exercise | 100,000 | 207,926 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.