PZZAPapa John's International, Inc.Consumer Cyclical · Restaurantsas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $20.19 · now $20.19 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, PZZA has typically landed between $16.56 and $23.65 — a range of −18.0% to +17.1% from the issuance price $20.19.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($20.19) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where PZZA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $20.19 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$16.56worst · -18.0%$23.65best · +17.1%
  • now $20.19 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $19.64 (-2.7%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $18.1–$21.19
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $16.56–$23.65
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-18−46.5%−46.5%+4.3%
2020-02-13−41.4%−41.4%+4.5%
2020-02-14−41.2%−41.2%+5.2%
3 best
2020-03-18+83.2%+0.0%+87.2%
2020-03-17+71.9%−8.2%+71.9%
2020-03-16+63.6%−8.6%+66.5%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
65%
+2.7%
n=20
Feb
45%
−0.2%
n=20
Mar
45%
+0.6%
n=20
Apr
55%
+2.6%
n=20
May
55%
+1.8%
n=20
Jun
55%
−0.1%
n=20
Jul
50%
+1.1%
n=20
Aug
50%
−0.7%
n=20
Sep
55%
−0.0%
n=20
Oct
45%
+0.4%
n=20
Nov
45%
−0.9%
n=20
Dec
45%
+0.0%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$53$20↑ buys↓ sales
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

99 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-09VASCONI JOHN KEVINofficerWithheld for tax1,88442,057Form 4
2026-07-31Penegor Todd AllandirectorWithheld for tax8,498196,034Form 4
2026-06-05Oyler Caroline MillerofficerWithheld for tax25164,750Form 4
2026-05-29Coleman Christopher L.directorAward / grant37849,186Form 4
2026-05-29KOELLNER LAURETTE TdirectorAward / grant27430,917Form 4
2026-05-29Medina Sonya EdirectorAward / grant27424,174Form 4
2026-05-29Mangan Jocelyn CdirectorAward / grant27120,730Form 4
2026-05-29MILLER JOHN CdirectorAward / grant15912,130Form 4
2026-05-29Garratt John WdirectorAward / grant15611,897Form 4
2026-05-29Gibbs Stephen LdirectorAward / grant15611,897Form 4
2026-05-29KOELLNER LAURETTE TdirectorAward / grant5530,971Form 4
2026-05-11Gibbs Stephen LdirectorAward / grant4,49411,741Form 4
2026-05-11Coleman Christopher L.directorAward / grant7,04148,808Form 4
2026-05-11Garratt John WdirectorAward / grant4,49411,741Form 4
2026-05-11KOELLNER LAURETTE TdirectorAward / grant4,49430,643Form 4
2026-05-11Mangan Jocelyn CdirectorAward / grant4,49420,459Form 4
2026-05-11Medina Sonya EdirectorAward / grant4,49423,900Form 4
2026-05-11MILLER JOHN CdirectorAward / grant4,49411,971Form 4
2026-03-25Thanawala RavidirectorWithheld for tax1,81687,306Form 4
2026-03-25Oyler Caroline MillerofficerWithheld for tax71465,001Form 4
2026-03-04Thanawala RavidirectorWithheld for tax77489,122Form 4
2026-03-04Oyler Caroline MillerofficerWithheld for tax40665,715Form 4
2026-03-03Penegor Todd AllandirectorWithheld for tax5,966204,532Form 4
2026-03-03Thanawala RavidirectorWithheld for tax1,80189,896Form 4
2026-03-03VASCONI JOHN KEVINofficerWithheld for tax92343,941Form 4
2026-03-03Oyler Caroline MillerofficerWithheld for tax70866,121Form 4
2026-03-02Oyler Caroline MillerofficerAward / grant19,56866,829Form 4
2026-03-02Penegor Todd AllandirectorAward / grant100,188210,498Form 4
2026-03-02VASCONI JOHN KEVINofficerAward / grant19,56844,864Form 4
2026-03-02Collins Christopher KofficerAward / grant7,86718,203Form 4
2026-03-02Collins Christopher KofficerAward / grant3,28821,491Form 4
2026-03-02Thanawala RavidirectorAward / grant39,13691,697Form 4
2026-02-27Oyler Caroline MillerofficerWithheld for tax25247,261Form 4
2026-02-20Coleman Christopher L.directorAward / grant30441,767Form 4
2026-02-20Medina Sonya EdirectorAward / grant23019,406Form 4
2026-02-20KOELLNER LAURETTE TdirectorAward / grant23026,090Form 4
2026-02-20Mangan Jocelyn CdirectorAward / grant22615,965Form 4
2026-02-20MILLER JOHN CdirectorAward / grant1067,477Form 4
2026-02-20Garratt John WdirectorAward / grant1037,247Form 4
2026-02-20Gibbs Stephen LdirectorAward / grant1037,247Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.