Issued 2026-09-16 at $52.71 · now $52.71 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, PYPL has typically landed between $42.42 and $60.74 — a range of −19.5% to +15.2% from the issuance price $52.71.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,796 overlapping 1 month windows · 2015-07-06 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($52.71) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where PYPL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $52.71 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $52.71 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $51.59 (-2.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $47.42–$55.76
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $42.42–$60.74
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,796 windows spanning 2015-07-06 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2022-02-01 | −42.4% | −42.7% | +0.0% |
| 2022-01-20 | −40.2% | −40.2% | +1.5% |
| 2022-01-19 | −39.4% | −39.4% | +1.3% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-04-07 | +45.9% | +0.0% | +45.9% |
| 2022-07-14 | +45.4% | +0.0% | +45.4% |
| 2020-04-21 | +40.4% | +0.0% | +40.4% |
2,796 overlapping windows · 2015-07-06 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$49.5B
market cap
$5.33
EPS (TTM)
10.5
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-28
next earnings
Revenue$33.2B
'20'25
Net income$5.2B
'20'25
Free cash flow$5.6B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr15.8%
'20'25
ROE · by yr25.8%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.49
'20'25
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 69 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$135.40
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 16.4× · n=69$87.32
- Analyst target · range $34.00–$63.00$50.50
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$52.71
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~12 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
64%
+2.4%
n=11
Feb
36%
−5.3%
n=11
Mar
55%
−0.5%
n=11
Apr
82%
+4.1%
n=11
May
36%
+0.5%
n=11
Jun
64%
+1.3%
n=11
Jul
64%
+8.1%
n=11
Aug
58%
+0.8%
n=12
Sep
33%
−2.6%
n=12
Oct
55%
+0.2%
n=11
Nov
55%
+0.2%
n=11
Dec
55%
−0.1%
n=11
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Keller Frank | officer | Sale | 2,427 @ $54.68 | $133K | −5.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 43,752 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Kereere Suzan | director | Sale | 1,284 @ $56.69 | $73K | −4.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 30,983 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Keller Frank | officer | Sale | 1,185 @ $56.71 | $67K | −2.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 41,567 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Kereere Suzan | director | Sale | 1,100 @ $54.53 | $60K | −3.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 33,262 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Keller Frank | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $55.74 | $56K | −2.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 42,752 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Kereere Suzan | director | Sale | 995 @ $55.79 | $56K | −3.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 32,267 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Natali Chris | officer | Sale | 552 @ $54.80 | $30K | −18.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,400 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Kereere Suzan | director | Sale | 3,362 @ $60.86 | $205K | −9.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 31,783 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Kereere Suzan | director | Sale | 800 @ $61.41 | $49K | −2.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 30,983 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-29 | Natali Chris | officer | Sale | 1,337 @ $58.10 | $78K | −37.6% of holding | −0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,216 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-29 | Keller Frank | officer | Sale | 732 @ $58.10 | $43K | −1.7% of holding | −0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 41,567 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Miller Jamie S | director | Purchase | 6,129 @ $41.53 | $255K | −7.4% of holding | +33.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 76,904 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-03 | Keller Frank | officer | Sale | 4,612 @ $42.54 | $196K | −10.0% of holding | +6.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 41,567 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-03 | Kereere Suzan | director | Sale | 3,379 @ $42.79 | $145K | −9.8% of holding | +6.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 30,983 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-03 | Natali Chris | officer | Sale | 552 @ $42.65 | $24K | −23.8% of holding | +6.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,770 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-19 | Kereere Suzan | director | Sale | 3,962 @ $44.16 | $175K | −11.3% of holding | −4.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 31,183 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-19 | Kereere Suzan | director | Sale | 200 @ $44.87 | $9K | −0.6% of holding | −4.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 30,983 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-29 | Keller Frank | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $50.00 | $500K | −19.4% of holding | −18.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 41,567 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-29 | Natali Chris | officer | Sale | 1,337 @ $49.46 | $66K | −45.7% of holding | −18.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,586 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-29 | Keller Frank | officer | Sale | 732 @ $49.46 | $36K | −1.4% of holding | −18.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 51,567 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Keller Frank | officer | Sale | 19,476 @ $46.35 | $903K | −27.0% of holding | −0.1% | +0.8% | 52,771 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Kereere Suzan | director | Sale | 8,815 @ $46.34 | $408K | −21.8% of holding | −0.1% | +0.8% | 31,683 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Keller Frank | officer | Sale | 8,901 @ $45.19 | $402K | −11.0% of holding | −0.1% | +0.8% | 72,247 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Kereere Suzan | director | Sale | 4,000 @ $45.18 | $181K | −9.0% of holding | −0.1% | +0.8% | 40,498 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Natali Chris | officer | Sale | 2,208 @ $44.73 | $99K | −65.9% of holding | −0.1% | +0.8% | 1,140 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Keller Frank | officer | Sale | 1,204 @ $46.82 | $56K | −2.3% of holding | −0.1% | +0.8% | 51,567 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Kereere Suzan | director | Sale | 700 @ $46.80 | $33K | −2.2% of holding | −0.1% | +0.8% | 30,983 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | Kereere Suzan | director | Sale | 31,413 @ $41.45 | $1.3M | −45.8% of holding | +10.8% | +36.0% | 37,183 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | Kereere Suzan | director | Sale | 6,200 @ $41.67 | $258K | −16.7% of holding | +10.8% | +36.0% | 30,983 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Natali Chris | officer | Sale | 1,213 @ $40.49 | $49K | −75.0% of holding | +12.7% | +36.0% | 404 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-06 | Keller Frank | officer | Sale | 3,478 @ $40.20 | $140K | −6.3% of holding | +13.6% | +34.5% | 51,567 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-19 | Kereere Suzan | director | Sale | 3,962 @ $59.80 | $237K | −11.3% of holding | −3.5% | −39.4% | 31,183 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-19 | Kereere Suzan | director | Sale | 200 @ $60.57 | $12K | −0.6% of holding | −3.5% | −39.4% | 30,983 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | Webster Aaron | officer | Sale | 7,198 @ $66.29 | $477K | −16.0% of holding | −8.4% | −40.9% | 37,783 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | Webster Aaron | officer | Sale | 1,150 @ $66.30 | $76K | −3.1% of holding | −8.4% | −40.9% | 35,699 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | Webster Aaron | officer | Sale | 934 @ $66.29 | $62K | −2.5% of holding | −8.4% | −40.9% | 36,849 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | Kereere Suzan | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $68.85 | $689K | −23.0% of holding | −10.2% | −39.9% | 33,483 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | Kereere Suzan | director | Sale | 2,500 @ $68.96 | $172K | −7.5% of holding | −10.2% | −39.9% | 30,983 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-30 | Kereere Suzan | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $69.52 | $348K | −10.3% of holding | −7.7% | −31.7% | 43,483 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-30 | Scotti Diego | officer | Sale | 1,897 @ $68.41 | $130K | −9.1% of holding | −7.7% | −31.7% | 18,930 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-30 | Scotti Diego | officer | Sale | 1,800 @ $69.47 | $125K | −9.5% of holding | −7.7% | −31.7% | 17,130 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-30 | Natali Chris | officer | Sale | 1,374 @ $69.13 | $95K | −100.0% of holding | −7.7% | −31.7% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-30 | Scotti Diego | officer | Sale | 141 @ $70.20 | $10K | −0.8% of holding | −7.7% | −31.7% | 16,989 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-19 | Kereere Suzan | director | Sale | 3,832 @ $69.31 | $266K | −7.3% of holding | −4.3% | −47.0% | 48,813 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-19 | Kereere Suzan | director | Sale | 330 @ $70.29 | $23K | −0.7% of holding | −4.3% | −47.0% | 48,483 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-31 | Natali Chris | officer | Sale | 7,102 @ $69.35 | $493K | −100.0% of holding | +0.0% | −33.3% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-31 | Scotti Diego | officer | Sale | 3,269 @ $69.01 | $226K | −15.7% of holding | +0.0% | −33.3% | 17,558 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-31 | Scotti Diego | officer | Sale | 569 @ $69.77 | $40K | −3.2% of holding | +0.0% | −33.3% | 16,989 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
252 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Miller Jamie S | director | Withheld for tax | 6,129 | 86,408 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | Miller Jamie S | director | Option exercise | 2,910 | 2,910 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | Miller Jamie S | director | Option exercise | 9,094 | 89,627 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | Miller Jamie S | director | Option exercise | 2,910 | 92,537 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | Miller Jamie S | director | Option exercise | 9,094 | 9,094 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Keller Frank | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,709 | 46,179 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Miller Jamie S | director | Withheld for tax | 3,785 | 80,533 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Kereere Suzan | director | Withheld for tax | 3,524 | 34,362 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Webster Aaron | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,097 | 65,761 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Natali Chris | officer | Withheld for tax | 390 | 2,952 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Natali Chris | officer | Option exercise | 1,023 | 6,134 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Keller Frank | officer | Option exercise | 3,418 | 6,836 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Keller Frank | officer | Option exercise | 6,903 | 41,412 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Keller Frank | officer | Option exercise | 3,418 | 44,985 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Keller Frank | officer | Option exercise | 6,903 | 51,888 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Kereere Suzan | director | Option exercise | 6,903 | 37,886 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Kereere Suzan | director | Option exercise | 6,903 | 41,412 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Miller Jamie S | director | Option exercise | 7,414 | 84,318 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Miller Jamie S | director | Option exercise | 7,414 | 44,479 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Natali Chris | officer | Option exercise | 1,023 | 3,239 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Natali Chris | officer | Option exercise | 103 | 3,342 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Natali Chris | officer | Option exercise | 103 | 612 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Webster Aaron | officer | Option exercise | 4,602 | 67,858 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Webster Aaron | officer | Option exercise | 4,602 | 27,608 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Kereere Suzan | director | Withheld for tax | 4,341 | 35,145 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Kereere Suzan | director | Option exercise | 8,503 | 17,004 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Kereere Suzan | director | Option exercise | 8,503 | 39,486 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Webster Aaron | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,883 | 63,256 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Natali Chris | officer | Withheld for tax | 943 | 3,553 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Keller Frank | officer | Withheld for tax | 907 | 42,299 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Webster Aaron | officer | Option exercise | 5,901 | 64,517 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Natali Chris | officer | Option exercise | 2,726 | 4,496 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Keller Frank | officer | Option exercise | 1,639 | 4,917 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Keller Frank | officer | Option exercise | 1,639 | 43,206 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Natali Chris | officer | Option exercise | 2,726 | 10,903 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Webster Aaron | officer | Option exercise | 2,622 | 67,139 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Webster Aaron | officer | Option exercise | 5,901 | 17,700 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Webster Aaron | officer | Option exercise | 2,622 | 7,866 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Keller Frank | officer | Award / grant | 146,778 | 146,778 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Miller Jamie S | director | Option exercise | 9,094 | 80,123 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-30 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-16 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-27 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2026-06-08 | 2026-05-15 | $1–15K |
| Byron Donalds | House | purchase | 2026-04-08 | 2026-03-13 | $1–15K |
| Byron Donalds | House | purchase | 2026-04-08 | 2026-03-13 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-23 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-10 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-13 | $1–15K |
| Mark Alford | House | sale | 2026-03-31 | 2026-03-16 | $1–15K |
| Angus King | Senate | sale | 2026-03-24 | 2026-02-13 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-17 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-24 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.