Issued 2026-09-25 at $649.13 · now $649.13 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, PWR has typically landed between $572.61 and $764.03 — a range of −11.8% to +17.7% from the issuance price $649.13.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,692 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($649.13) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where PWR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $649.13 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $649.13 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $671.53 (+3.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $632.7–$710.37
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $572.61–$764.03
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-10-22 | −45.2% | −45.2% | +3.9% |
| 2008-10-14 | −44.1% | −44.1% | +0.0% |
| 2008-10-21 | −42.0% | −42.0% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2008-11-20 | +67.6% | +0.0% | +80.8% |
| 2008-11-21 | +54.0% | +0.0% | +66.1% |
| 2008-11-19 | +49.4% | −15.6% | +52.6% |
4,692 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 74 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$139.68
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 30.7× · n=74$223.46
- Analyst target · range $575.00–$940.00$685.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-25$649.13
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-05 | Austin Earl C. Jr. | director | Sale | 30,478 @ $768.66 | $23.4M | −4.5% of holding | −11.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 645,339 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Austin Earl C. Jr. | director | Sale | 27,368 @ $769.41 | $21.1M | −4.2% of holding | −11.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 617,971 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Austin Earl C. Jr. | director | Sale | 21,329 @ $770.70 | $16.4M | −3.5% of holding | −11.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 596,642 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Austin Earl C. Jr. | director | Sale | 10,712 @ $771.44 | $8.3M | −1.8% of holding | −11.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 585,930 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Austin Earl C. Jr. | director | Sale | 7,768 @ $776.73 | $6.0M | −1.4% of holding | −11.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 559,903 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Austin Earl C. Jr. | director | Sale | 6,382 @ $768.71 | $4.9M | −15.9% of holding | −11.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 33,785 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Austin Earl C. Jr. | director | Sale | 5,509 @ $765.14 | $4.2M | −0.8% of holding | −11.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 681,402 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Austin Earl C. Jr. | director | Sale | 5,313 @ $775.77 | $4.1M | −0.9% of holding | −11.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 567,671 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Austin Earl C. Jr. | director | Sale | 5,286 @ $772.51 | $4.1M | −0.9% of holding | −11.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 580,644 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Austin Earl C. Jr. | director | Sale | 4,846 @ $769.47 | $3.7M | −14.3% of holding | −11.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 28,939 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Austin Earl C. Jr. | director | Sale | 4,562 @ $774.77 | $3.5M | −0.8% of holding | −11.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 572,984 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Austin Earl C. Jr. | director | Sale | 4,354 @ $770.72 | $3.4M | −15.0% of holding | −11.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 24,585 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Austin Earl C. Jr. | director | Sale | 4,062 @ $767.68 | $3.1M | −0.6% of holding | −11.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 675,817 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Austin Earl C. Jr. | director | Sale | 3,098 @ $773.61 | $2.4M | −0.5% of holding | −11.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 577,546 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Austin Earl C. Jr. | director | Sale | 2,992 @ $777.60 | $2.3M | −0.5% of holding | −11.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 556,911 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Austin Earl C. Jr. | director | Sale | 2,187 @ $771.47 | $1.7M | −8.9% of holding | −11.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 22,398 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Austin Earl C. Jr. | director | Sale | 1,590 @ $776.73 | $1.2M | −8.5% of holding | −11.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,122 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Austin Earl C. Jr. | director | Sale | 1,523 @ $766.91 | $1.2M | −0.2% of holding | −11.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 679,879 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Austin Earl C. Jr. | director | Sale | 1,121 @ $772.58 | $866K | −5.0% of holding | −11.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 21,277 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Austin Earl C. Jr. | director | Sale | 1,086 @ $775.77 | $842K | −5.5% of holding | −11.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 18,712 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Austin Earl C. Jr. | director | Sale | 1,030 @ $765.14 | $788K | −2.4% of holding | −11.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 41,470 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Austin Earl C. Jr. | director | Sale | 998 @ $767.74 | $766K | −2.4% of holding | −11.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 40,167 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Austin Earl C. Jr. | director | Sale | 934 @ $774.77 | $724K | −4.5% of holding | −11.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 19,798 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Austin Earl C. Jr. | director | Sale | 614 @ $777.60 | $477K | −3.6% of holding | −11.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 16,508 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Austin Earl C. Jr. | director | Sale | 545 @ $773.69 | $422K | −2.6% of holding | −11.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 20,732 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Austin Earl C. Jr. | director | Sale | 305 @ $766.92 | $234K | −0.7% of holding | −11.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 41,165 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | NOBEL PAUL | officer | Sale | 4,000 @ $756.98 | $3.0M | −33.1% of holding | −10.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,080 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-06 | Ducey Gerald A JR | officer | Sale | 7,653 @ $446.08 | $3.4M | −27.7% of holding | +2.6% | +65.6% | 19,960 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-06 | WAYNE DONALD | officer | Sale | 7,534 @ $442.87 | $3.3M | −15.5% of holding | +2.6% | +65.6% | 41,041 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-06 | WAYNE DONALD | officer | Sale | 3,428 @ $445.09 | $1.5M | −8.9% of holding | +2.6% | +65.6% | 35,279 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-06 | WAYNE DONALD | officer | Sale | 2,334 @ $444.07 | $1.0M | −5.7% of holding | +2.6% | +65.6% | 38,707 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-06 | WAYNE DONALD | officer | Sale | 569 @ $447.03 | $254K | −1.6% of holding | +2.6% | +65.6% | 34,575 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-06 | WAYNE DONALD | officer | Sale | 135 @ $445.72 | $60K | −0.4% of holding | +2.6% | +65.6% | 35,144 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-05 | JACKMAN WORTHING | director | Sale | 6,349 @ $450.45 | $2.9M | −69.9% of holding | +0.4% | +54.9% | 2,730 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | FRIED BERNARD | director | Sale | 4,000 @ $452.19 | $1.8M | −24.3% of holding | +1.1% | +66.3% | 12,493 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-08-21 | Studer Karl W | officer | Sale | 12,805 @ $270.09 | $3.5M | −38.4% of holding | +6.3% | −10.9% | 20,570 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-08-21 | Studer Karl W | officer | Sale | 9,939 @ $271.15 | $2.7M | −48.3% of holding | +6.3% | −10.9% | 10,631 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-08-21 | Studer Karl W | officer | Sale | 613 @ $268.97 | $165K | −1.8% of holding | +6.3% | −10.9% | 33,375 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-08-14 | Austin Earl C. Jr. | director | Sale | 120,460 @ $262.12 | $31.6M | −16.7% of holding | −1.1% | −4.4% | 602,942 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-08-14 | Austin Earl C. Jr. | director | Sale | 9,540 @ $263.28 | $2.5M | −1.6% of holding | −1.1% | −4.4% | 593,402 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-08-09 | Probst James Redgie | officer | Sale | 32,110 @ $260.00 | $8.3M | −51.0% of holding | −6.7% | +2.4% | 30,892 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-08-09 | Ducey Gerald A JR | officer | Sale | 15,000 @ $257.93 | $3.9M | −41.3% of holding | −6.7% | +2.4% | 21,286 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-08-09 | Probst James Redgie | officer | Sale | 1,890 @ $260.65 | $493K | −6.1% of holding | −6.7% | +2.4% | 29,002 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-03-27 | WAYNE DONALD | officer | Sale | 1,101 @ $261.94 | $288K | −2.7% of holding | +3.6% | +4.1% | 40,065 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-03-12 | WAYNE DONALD | officer | Sale | 595 @ $239.61 | $143K | −1.4% of holding | +6.2% | +0.9% | 41,954 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-03-05 | WAYNE DONALD | officer | Sale | 904 @ $241.81 | $219K | −2.0% of holding | +6.3% | −2.6% | 43,225 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-03-04 | WAYNE DONALD | officer | Sale | 8,842 @ $242.27 | $2.1M | −16.7% of holding | +6.1% | −2.5% | 44,129 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-03-01 | SHANNON MARGARET B | director | Sale | 8,515 @ $239.92 | $2.0M | −20.0% of holding | +4.8% | +3.7% | 34,063 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-02-28 | JACKMAN WORTHING | director | Sale | 9,572 @ $237.31 | $2.3M | −56.1% of holding | +5.2% | +1.2% | 7,486 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-02-27 | JENSEN DERRICK A | officer | Sale | 12,915 @ $236.45 | $3.1M | −4.6% of holding | +4.9% | +1.5% | 269,310 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-02-27 | FOSTER VINCENT D | director | Sale | 8,414 @ $238.37 | $2.0M | −4.3% of holding | +4.9% | +1.5% | 185,750 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-02-27 | FOSTER VINCENT D | director | Sale | 7,656 @ $239.12 | $1.8M | −4.1% of holding | +4.9% | +1.5% | 178,094 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-02-27 | JENSEN DERRICK A | officer | Sale | 5,585 @ $237.95 | $1.3M | −2.1% of holding | +4.9% | +1.5% | 263,725 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-02-27 | FRIED BERNARD | director | Sale | 4,000 @ $236.65 | $947K | −42.7% of holding | +4.9% | +1.5% | 5,372 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-02-27 | FOSTER VINCENT D | director | Sale | 1,430 @ $237.26 | $339K | −0.7% of holding | +4.9% | +1.5% | 194,164 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
214 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Rubin Ellen | director | Award / grant | 203 | 203 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Ladhani Holli C. | director | Disposition | 196 | 4,547 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Ladhani Holli C. | director | Option exercise | 559 | 249 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Ladhani Holli C. | director | Option exercise | 559 | 4,743 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | JACKMAN WORTHING | director | Option exercise | 559 | 10,738 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | JACKMAN WORTHING | director | Option exercise | 559 | 2,489 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | FRIED BERNARD | director | Option exercise | 559 | 14,999 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | FRIED BERNARD | director | Option exercise | 559 | 10,165 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Beneby Doyle N | director | Option exercise | 870 | 387 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Beneby Doyle N | director | Option exercise | 870 | 29,657 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | BAXTER WARNER L | director | Option exercise | 559 | 249 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | WYRSCH MARTHA B | director | Option exercise | 559 | 249 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Rowe Robert Scott | director | Option exercise | 559 | 2,297 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Rowe Robert Scott | director | Option exercise | 559 | 1,220 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | BAXTER WARNER L | director | Option exercise | 559 | 1,181 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | WYRSCH MARTHA B | director | Option exercise | 559 | 5,617 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | FRIED BERNARD | director | Option exercise | 4,823 | 15,558 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | FRIED BERNARD | director | Option exercise | 4,823 | 9,606 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Beneby Doyle N | director | Award / grant | 387 | 1,257 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | FRIED BERNARD | director | Award / grant | 249 | 20,381 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | JACKMAN WORTHING | director | Award / grant | 249 | 11,297 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Kim Joseph | director | Award / grant | 249 | 249 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Ladhani Holli C. | director | Award / grant | 249 | 808 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | WYRSCH MARTHA B | director | Award / grant | 249 | 808 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Rowe Robert Scott | director | Award / grant | 249 | 1,779 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | VALENTIN RAUL JAVIER | director | Option exercise | 559 | 2,022 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | VALENTIN RAUL JAVIER | director | Option exercise | 559 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | dePass Olsovsky Josephine Ann Marie | director | Award / grant | 249 | 808 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | BAXTER WARNER L | director | Award / grant | 249 | 808 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | WYRSCH MARTHA B | director | Gift | 2,500 | 5,058 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | Austin Earl C. Jr. | director | Gift | 4,008 | 12,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | NOBEL PAUL | officer | Gift | 45 | 8,035 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Austin Earl C. Jr. | director | Withheld for tax | 2,441 | 709,411 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Desai Jayshree S | director | Withheld for tax | 781 | 58,911 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Studer Karl W | officer | Withheld for tax | 682 | 34,499 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | WAYNE DONALD | officer | Withheld for tax | 426 | 39,782 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Ducey Gerald A JR | officer | Withheld for tax | 409 | 24,575 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | NOBEL PAUL | officer | Withheld for tax | 148 | 12,080 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Austin Earl C. Jr. | director | Withheld for tax | 3,570 | 711,852 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Ducey Gerald A JR | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,999 | 24,984 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-25 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| April Mcclain Delaney | House | sale | 2026-06-05 | 2026-05-14 | $15–50K |
| April Mcclain Delaney | House | sale | 2026-06-05 | 2026-05-13 | $1–15K |
| Dwight Evans | House | sale | 2026-05-15 | 2026-05-07 | $1–15K |
| Elizabeth Fletcher | House | sale | 2026-05-01 | 2026-04-08 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-06 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-02-13 | 2026-01-30 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-23 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2026-01-12 | 2025-12-19 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2026-01-12 | 2025-12-24 | $1–15K |
| April Mcclain Delaney | House | sale | 2026-01-05 | 2025-12-02 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2025-12-15 | 2025-11-18 | $1–15K |
| April Mcclain Delaney | House | sale | 2025-12-08 | 2025-11-17 | $1–15K |
| Lisa Mcclain | House | sale | 2025-11-21 | 2025-10-31 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.