PWPPerella Weinberg PartnersFinancial Services · Financial - Capital Marketsas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $12.75 · now $12.75 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, PWP has typically landed between $10.38 and $15.53 — a range of −18.6% to +21.8% from the issuance price $12.75.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

1,439 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-11-20 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($12.75) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where PWP has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $12.75 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$10.38worst · -18.6%$15.53best · +21.8%
  • now $12.75 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $12.79 (+0.3%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $11.66–$13.92
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $10.38–$15.53
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,439 windows spanning 2020-11-20 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2026-02-10−32.8%−32.8%+0.0%
2026-02-11−31.9%−32.2%+0.0%
2026-02-09−30.8%−31.0%+0.0%
3 best
2022-07-11+43.1%+0.0%+45.4%
2022-10-25+41.5%+0.0%+41.5%
2022-07-14+40.4%+0.0%+42.1%

1,439 overlapping windows · 2020-11-20 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
67%
+4.0%
n=6
Feb
33%
−2.9%
n=6
Mar
33%
−6.1%
n=6
Apr
50%
−1.0%
n=6
May
50%
−1.5%
n=6
Jun
67%
−0.7%
n=6
Jul
83%
+10.7%
n=6
Aug
83%
+5.5%
n=6
Sep
0%
−7.8%
n=6
Oct
60%
+3.8%
n=5
Nov
60%
+10.5%
n=5
Dec
67%
+1.8%
n=6

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$24$132026-08-07: 1 insider sale, $1.4M — Bednar Andrew2026-08-06: 1 insider sale, $1.4M — Bednar Andrew2026-08-05: 1 insider sale, $1.4M — Bednar Andrew2026-06-12: 1 insider sale, $1.6M — STEEL ROBERT K2026-05-20: 1 insider sale, $245K — Gottschalk Alexandra2026-05-19: 1 insider sale, $770K — Gottschalk Alexandra2026-05-05: 1 insider sale, $1.0M — Gottschalk Alexandra2025-09-11: 1 insider sale, $1.6M — STEEL ROBERT K2025-09-10: 1 insider sale, $1.1M — STEEL ROBERT K2025-09-09: 1 insider sale, $2.0M — STEEL ROBERT K2025-08: 1 open-market sale, $3.9M2025-09: 3 open-market sales, $4.7M2026-05: 3 open-market sales, $2.0M2026-06: 1 open-market sale, $1.6M2026-08: 3 open-market sales, $4.1M↑ buys↓ salesdirector Bednar Andrew — Sale on 2026-08-07, filed same daydirector Bednar Andrew — Sale on 2026-08-06, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Bednar Andrew — Sale on 2026-08-05, filed 2 days after the tradedirector STEEL ROBERT K — Sale on 2026-06-12, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Gottschalk Alexandra — Sale on 2026-05-20, filed same dayofficer Gottschalk Alexandra — Sale on 2026-05-19, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Gottschalk Alexandra — Sale on 2026-05-05, filed 2 days after the tradedirector STEEL ROBERT K — Sale on 2025-09-11, filed same daydirector STEEL ROBERT K — Sale on 2025-09-10, filed 1 day after the tradedirector STEEL ROBERT K — Sale on 2025-09-09, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-07Bednar AndrewdirectorSale77,753 @ $17.41$1.4M−6.8% of holding−4.3%not yet — horizon still open1,061,260Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-06Bednar AndrewdirectorSale80,045 @ $17.17$1.4M−6.6% of holding−1.7%not yet — horizon still open1,139,013Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-05Bednar AndrewdirectorSale77,899 @ $17.36$1.4M−6.0% of holding−2.7%not yet — horizon still open1,219,058Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-12STEEL ROBERT KdirectorSale100,000 @ $15.76$1.6M−25.8% of holding−0.6%not yet — horizon still open287,922Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-20Gottschalk AlexandraofficerSale14,018 @ $17.46$245K−16.2% of holding−9.9%not yet — horizon still open72,492Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-19Gottschalk AlexandraofficerSale43,788 @ $17.58$770K−33.6% of holding−10.7%not yet — horizon still open86,510Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-05Gottschalk AlexandraofficerSale51,671 @ $19.74$1.0M−41.6% of holding−24.9%not yet — horizon still open72,492Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-11STEEL ROBERT KdirectorSale69,845 @ $22.42$1.6M−41.4% of holding−17.4%−29.8%98,772Form 4 · filed same day
2025-09-10STEEL ROBERT KdirectorSale51,505 @ $21.85$1.1M−23.4% of holding−13.0%−28.8%168,617Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-09STEEL ROBERT KdirectorSale90,532 @ $21.76$2.0M−29.1% of holding−13.1%−27.0%220,122Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-08Becker DietrichdirectorSale177,553 @ $22.20$3.9M−32.5% of holding−3.6%+1.0%368,469Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-06-11STEEL ROBERT KdirectorSale28,214 @ $18.75$529K−22.2% of holding+1.4%−15.8%98,772Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-02STEEL ROBERT KdirectorSale60,092 @ $17.30$1.0M−32.1% of holding+11.8%−12.3%126,986Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-30STEEL ROBERT KdirectorSale62,997 @ $17.45$1.1M−25.2% of holding+8.5%−10.8%187,078Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-05-29STEEL ROBERT KdirectorSale73,107 @ $17.73$1.3M−22.6% of holding+4.1%−13.5%250,075Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-01Weinberg Peter AdirectorSale137,621 @ $17.20$2.4M−100.0% of holding−4.4%−12.6%0Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-04-02Weinberg Peter AdirectorSale39,982 @ $19.16$766K−22.5% of holding−10.1%−10.7%137,621Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-04-01Weinberg Peter AdirectorSale101,018 @ $18.45$1.9M−36.3% of holding−6.3%−6.8%177,603Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-04Weinberg Peter AdirectorSale59,130 @ $21.03$1.2M−17.5% of holding−5.7%−10.6%278,621Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-03Weinberg Peter AdirectorSale81,870 @ $22.57$1.8M−19.5% of holding−13.2%−11.6%337,751Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-04Weinberg Peter AdirectorSale45,884 @ $25.85$1.2M−9.9% of holding−14.9%−19.0%419,621Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-03Weinberg Peter AdirectorSale95,116 @ $24.95$2.4M−17.0% of holding−11.9%−16.5%465,505Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-01-03Weinberg Peter AdirectorSale68,134 @ $23.12$1.6M−10.8% of holding+10.4%−17.4%560,621Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-01-02Weinberg Peter AdirectorSale72,866 @ $23.60$1.7M−10.4% of holding+6.5%−19.9%628,755Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2024-12-10STEEL ROBERT KdirectorSale32,943 @ $24.87$819K−39.5% of holding−6.6%−27.4%50,479Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-05Weinberg Peter AdirectorSale21,108 @ $25.71$543K−2.9% of holding−8.1%−26.9%701,621Form 4 · filed same day
2024-12-04Weinberg Peter AdirectorSale61,612 @ $25.23$1.6M−7.9% of holding−6.0%−23.9%722,729Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-03Weinberg Peter AdirectorSale58,280 @ $25.42$1.5M−6.9% of holding−7.2%−25.9%784,341Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

108 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-01PWP VoteCo Professionals LPdirectorOther acquisition1,997,03018,021,285Form 4
2026-08-31STEEL ROBERT KdirectorWithheld for tax15,298302,624Form 4
2026-08-31Gottschalk AlexandraofficerWithheld for tax1,62674,866Form 4
2026-08-31Becker DietrichdirectorOption exercise968,9641,379,452Form 4
2026-08-31Gottschalk AlexandraofficerOption exercise4,00076,492Form 4
2026-08-31Bednar AndrewdirectorOption exercise968,9642,030,224Form 4
2026-08-31Becker DietrichdirectorOption exercise968,9640Form 4
2026-08-31STEEL ROBERT KdirectorOption exercise30,000317,922Form 4
2026-08-31Weinberg Peter AdirectorOption exercise680,3360Form 4
2026-08-31Weinberg Peter AdirectorOption exercise680,3362,635,236Form 4
2026-08-31Gottschalk AlexandraofficerOption exercise4,0000Form 4
2026-08-31Bednar AndrewdirectorOption exercise968,9640Form 4
2026-08-31STEEL ROBERT KdirectorOption exercise30,0000Form 4
2026-05-27OLLILA JORMA JdirectorWithheld for tax1,69632,309Form 4
2026-05-27MUGFORD KRISTIN WdirectorAward / grant5,42949,586Form 4
2026-05-27Bennett Roy EdwindirectorAward / grant5,4297,710Form 4
2026-05-27Dabboussi HoudadirectorAward / grant5,4297,710Form 4
2026-05-27FASCITELLI ELIZABETH CdirectorAward / grant5,42949,586Form 4
2026-05-18STEEL ROBERT KdirectorOption exercise198,0830Form 4
2026-05-18Gottschalk AlexandraofficerOption exercise57,7490Form 4
2026-05-18PWP VoteCo Professionals LPdirectorOther acquisition1,906,19120,018,315Form 4
2026-05-18STEEL ROBERT KdirectorOption exercise198,0830Form 4
2026-05-18Gottschalk AlexandraofficerOption exercise57,7490Form 4
2026-05-18STEEL ROBERT KdirectorDisposition2387,922Form 4
2026-05-18Gottschalk AlexandraofficerDisposition1130,298Form 4
2026-05-18STEEL ROBERT KdirectorOption exercise198,083387,726Form 4
2026-05-18Gottschalk AlexandraofficerOption exercise58130,299Form 4
2026-05-18STEEL ROBERT KdirectorOption exercise198387,924Form 4
2026-05-18Gottschalk AlexandraofficerOption exercise57,749130,241Form 4
2026-03-05STEEL ROBERT KdirectorWithheld for tax15,301189,643Form 4
2026-03-05Gottschalk AlexandraofficerWithheld for tax1,609124,163Form 4
2026-03-03PWP VoteCo Professionals LPdirectorOther acquisition215,00021,924,506Form 4
2026-02-28STEEL ROBERT KdirectorOption exercise30,000204,944Form 4
2026-02-28Gottschalk AlexandraofficerOption exercise4,000125,772Form 4
2026-02-28Gottschalk AlexandraofficerOption exercise4,0004,000Form 4
2026-02-28STEEL ROBERT KdirectorOption exercise30,00030,000Form 4
2026-02-24Becker DietrichdirectorWithheld for tax16,052410,488Form 4
2026-02-24Bednar AndrewdirectorWithheld for tax15,5901,296,957Form 4
2026-02-24Weinberg Peter AdirectorWithheld for tax11,8441,954,900Form 4
2026-02-24STEEL ROBERT KdirectorWithheld for tax3,093174,944Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.