Issued 2026-08-13 at $155.07 · now $156.55 (2026-08-13, +1.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-08-13 close, PVLA has typically landed between $122.39 and $252.66 — a range of −21.1% to +62.9% from the issuance price $155.07.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
398 overlapping 1 month windows · 2024-12-10 – 2026-07-15 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.8% (90% CI 51.6–56.0%, ≈1,400 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-08-13 issuance close ($155.07) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-09-11, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where PVLA has typically landed a month from the 2026-08-13 close of $155.07 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $156.55 (+1.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $171.41 (+10.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $141.75–$201.06
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $122.39–$252.66
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2025-03-12 | −31.5% | −31.5% | +0.0% |
| 2026-02-26 | −24.2% | −24.2% | +0.0% |
| 2025-12-26 | −23.9% | −23.9% | +1.9% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-06-26 | +93.4% | +0.0% | +93.4% |
| 2025-02-10 | +84.5% | +0.0% | +84.5% |
| 2025-06-25 | +81.0% | −3.4% | +81.0% |
398 overlapping windows · 2024-12-10 – 2026-08-13 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- August 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: A Phase 2, Baseline-Controlled Study Evaluating the Safety and Efficacy of PTX-022 (Sirolimus) Topical Gel 3.9% in the Treatment of Angiokeratomas (LOTU) (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~2 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Company insiders iOpen-market share purchases and sales by the company's own officers and directors, by filing date.
Last 90 days · as of 2026-08-13 · point-in-time by filing date
No insider transactions on record in the last 90 days.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. Full terms.