Issued 2026-09-25 at $138.16 · now $138.16 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, PVLA has typically landed between $110.03 and $223.13 — a range of −20.4% to +61.5% from the issuance price $138.16.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
428 overlapping 1 month windows · 2024-12-10 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($138.16) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where PVLA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $138.16 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $138.16 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $149.7 (+8.4%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $124.91–$174.5
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $110.03–$223.13
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 428 windows spanning 2024-12-10 to 2026-09-25. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2025-03-12 | −31.5% | −31.5% | +0.0% |
| 2026-02-26 | −24.2% | −24.2% | +0.0% |
| 2025-12-26 | −23.9% | −23.9% | +1.9% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-06-26 | +93.4% | +0.0% | +93.4% |
| 2025-02-10 | +84.5% | +0.0% | +84.5% |
| 2025-06-25 | +81.0% | −3.4% | +81.0% |
428 overlapping windows · 2024-12-10 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- August 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: A Phase 2, Baseline-Controlled Study Evaluating the Safety and Efficacy of PTX-022 (Sirolimus) Topical Gel 3.9% in the Treatment of Angiokeratomas (LOTU) (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~2 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
50%
−9.2%
n=2
Feb
100%
+62.5%
n=2
Mar
50%
+18.4%
n=2
Apr
50%
−5.2%
n=2
May
0%
−4.2%
n=2
Jun
50%
+11.2%
n=2
Jul
50%
+26.6%
n=2
Aug
100%
+28.9%
n=2
Sep
50%
+3.2%
n=2
Oct
100%
+27.4%
n=1
Nov
100%
+28.7%
n=1
Dec
100%
+1.8%
n=1
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Goin Kathleen | officer | Sale | 1,654 @ $153.24 | $253K | −100.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-16 | Goin Kathleen | officer | Sale | 1,659 @ $151.16 | $251K | −38.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,643 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-16 | Goin Kathleen | officer | Sale | 989 @ $152.36 | $151K | −37.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,654 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | JENKINS GEORGE M | director | Sale | 954 @ $149.38 | $143K | −0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 160,939 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-15 | JENKINS GEORGE M | director | Sale | 560 @ $151.33 | $85K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 160,116 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-15 | JENKINS GEORGE M | director | Sale | 263 @ $150.40 | $40K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 160,676 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-14 | JENKINS GEORGE M | director | Sale | 6,160 @ $152.12 | $937K | −3.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 163,453 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | JENKINS GEORGE M | director | Sale | 5,632 @ $151.46 | $853K | −3.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 169,613 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | JENKINS GEORGE M | director | Sale | 1,560 @ $153.10 | $239K | −1.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 161,893 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | JENKINS GEORGE M | director | Sale | 6,520 @ $150.62 | $982K | −3.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 181,096 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | JENKINS GEORGE M | director | Sale | 4,577 @ $151.72 | $694K | −2.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 176,519 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | JENKINS GEORGE M | director | Sale | 1,274 @ $153.06 | $195K | −0.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 175,245 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | KIRITSY CHRISTOPHER P | director | Sale | 313 @ $157.00 | $49K | −55.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 250 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Goin Kathleen | officer | Sale | 1,998 @ $151.80 | $303K | −71.3% of holding | +1.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 804 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Goin Kathleen | officer | Sale | 1,500 @ $151.39 | $227K | −34.9% of holding | +1.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,802 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Goin Kathleen | officer | Sale | 400 @ $153.00 | $61K | −49.8% of holding | +1.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 404 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Goin Kathleen | officer | Sale | 302 @ $156.77 | $47K | −100.0% of holding | +1.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Goin Kathleen | officer | Sale | 102 @ $155.59 | $16K | −25.2% of holding | +1.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 302 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Goin Kathleen | officer | Sale | 1,911 @ $150.25 | $287K | −100.0% of holding | −0.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Goin Kathleen | officer | Sale | 1,029 @ $149.27 | $154K | −35.0% of holding | −0.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,911 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Goin Kathleen | officer | Sale | 840 @ $148.40 | $125K | −22.2% of holding | −0.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,940 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Goin Kathleen | officer | Sale | 522 @ $147.14 | $77K | −12.1% of holding | −0.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,780 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-17 | Goin Kathleen | officer | Sale | 2,390 @ $110.26 | $264K | −55.6% of holding | +9.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,912 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-17 | Goin Kathleen | officer | Sale | 1,887 @ $111.31 | $210K | −98.7% of holding | +9.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 25 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-17 | Goin Kathleen | officer | Sale | 25 @ $112.23 | $3K | −100.0% of holding | +9.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | Goin Kathleen | officer | Sale | 3,363 @ $110.35 | $371K | −78.2% of holding | +2.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 939 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | Goin Kathleen | officer | Sale | 891 @ $111.30 | $99K | −94.9% of holding | +2.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 48 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | Goin Kathleen | officer | Sale | 48 @ $111.89 | $5K | −100.0% of holding | +2.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-15 | Goin Kathleen | officer | Sale | 1,500 @ $127.13 | $191K | −53.6% of holding | −14.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,300 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-15 | Goin Kathleen | officer | Sale | 1,502 @ $125.96 | $189K | −34.9% of holding | −14.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,800 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-15 | Goin Kathleen | officer | Sale | 639 @ $129.17 | $83K | −86.5% of holding | −14.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 100 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-15 | Goin Kathleen | officer | Sale | 561 @ $128.23 | $72K | −43.2% of holding | −14.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 739 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-15 | Goin Kathleen | officer | Sale | 100 @ $130.33 | $13K | −100.0% of holding | −14.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-30 | JENKINS GEORGE M | director | Purchase | 445 @ $112.30 | $50K | +0.2% of holding | −2.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 187,616 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-18 | Goin Kathleen | officer | Sale | 2,268 @ $117.56 | $267K | −52.7% of holding | +6.2% | +19.5% | 2,034 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-18 | Goin Kathleen | officer | Sale | 1,730 @ $118.37 | $205K | −85.1% of holding | +6.2% | +19.5% | 304 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-18 | Goin Kathleen | officer | Sale | 304 @ $119.08 | $36K | −100.0% of holding | +6.2% | +19.5% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | JENKINS GEORGE M | director | Purchase | 4,000 @ $125.00 | $500K | +2.2% of holding | −10.4% | −1.7% | 187,171 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | HERON ELAINE J | director | Purchase | 2,400 @ $125.00 | $300K | +5.3% of holding | −10.4% | −1.7% | 47,812 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | Goin Kathleen | officer | Sale | 3,026 @ $79.16 | $240K | −70.3% of holding | +47.0% | +75.7% | 1,276 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | Goin Kathleen | officer | Sale | 1,276 @ $79.97 | $102K | −100.0% of holding | +47.0% | +75.7% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-21 | Goin Kathleen | officer | Sale | 3,749 @ $97.94 | $367K | −100.0% of holding | −9.4% | +44.2% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-21 | Goin Kathleen | officer | Sale | 553 @ $95.49 | $53K | −12.9% of holding | −9.4% | +44.2% | 3,749 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-17 | Goin Kathleen | officer | Sale | 4,302 @ $96.47 | $415K | −100.0% of holding | +5.3% | +17.4% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-19 | Goin Kathleen | officer | Sale | 2,802 @ $86.51 | $242K | −100.0% of holding | −0.1% | +4.5% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-19 | Goin Kathleen | officer | Sale | 1,500 @ $85.72 | $129K | −34.9% of holding | −0.1% | +4.5% | 2,802 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-09 | JENKINS GEORGE M | director | Purchase | 2,490 @ $20.27 | $50K | +22.6% of holding | +1.6% | +198.5% | 13,516 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-09 | JENKINS GEORGE M | director | Purchase | 2,500 @ $20.13 | $50K | +1.4% of holding | +1.6% | +198.5% | 183,171 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-18 | JENKINS GEORGE M | director | Purchase | 4,000 @ $12.93 | $52K | +2.3% of holding | +7.7% | +82.6% | 180,671 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
117 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Goin Kathleen | officer | Option exercise | 2,148 | 4,302 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | Goin Kathleen | officer | Option exercise | 2,154 | 2,154 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | Goin Kathleen | officer | Option exercise | 2,148 | 2,148 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | Goin Kathleen | officer | Option exercise | 2,154 | 2,165 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | KIRITSY CHRISTOPHER P | director | Option exercise | 313 | 563 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | KIRITSY CHRISTOPHER P | director | Option exercise | 313 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Goin Kathleen | officer | Option exercise | 2,148 | 4,302 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Goin Kathleen | officer | Option exercise | 2,154 | 2,154 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Goin Kathleen | officer | Option exercise | 2,148 | 4,296 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Goin Kathleen | officer | Option exercise | 2,154 | 4,319 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Goin Kathleen | officer | Option exercise | 2,148 | 4,302 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Goin Kathleen | officer | Option exercise | 2,154 | 2,154 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Goin Kathleen | officer | Option exercise | 2,148 | 6,444 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Goin Kathleen | officer | Option exercise | 2,154 | 6,473 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-29 | Pauls Matthew | director | Award / grant | 6,000 | 6,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Goin Kathleen | officer | Option exercise | 2,148 | 4,302 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Goin Kathleen | officer | Option exercise | 2,154 | 2,154 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Goin Kathleen | officer | Option exercise | 2,154 | 8,627 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Goin Kathleen | officer | Option exercise | 2,148 | 8,592 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Korenberg Matthew E | director | Option exercise | 1,000 | 1,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Korenberg Matthew E | director | Option exercise | 1,000 | 166,100 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | JENKINS GEORGE M | director | Award / grant | 3,000 | 3,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Wessel Tadd S. | director | Award / grant | 3,000 | 3,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Davis Todd C | director | Award / grant | 3,000 | 3,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Doux John | director | Award / grant | 3,000 | 3,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | HERON ELAINE J | director | Award / grant | 3,000 | 3,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | KIRITSY CHRISTOPHER P | director | Award / grant | 3,000 | 3,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Goin Kathleen | officer | Option exercise | 2,148 | 4,302 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Goin Kathleen | officer | Option exercise | 2,154 | 2,154 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Goin Kathleen | officer | Option exercise | 2,148 | 10,740 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Goin Kathleen | officer | Option exercise | 2,154 | 10,781 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | Goin Kathleen | officer | Option exercise | 2,148 | 4,302 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | Goin Kathleen | officer | Option exercise | 2,154 | 2,154 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | Goin Kathleen | officer | Option exercise | 2,154 | 12,935 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | Goin Kathleen | officer | Option exercise | 2,148 | 12,888 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-13 | Doux John | director | Award / grant | 6,000 | 6,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-18 | Goin Kathleen | officer | Option exercise | 2,148 | 4,302 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-18 | Goin Kathleen | officer | Option exercise | 2,154 | 2,154 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-18 | Goin Kathleen | officer | Option exercise | 2,148 | 15,036 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-18 | Goin Kathleen | officer | Option exercise | 2,154 | 15,089 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.