Issued 2026-09-16 at $16.85 · now $16.85 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, PUBM has typically landed between $12.58 and $22.57 — a range of −25.4% to +33.9% from the issuance price $16.85.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,427 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-12-09 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($16.85) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where PUBM has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $16.85 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $16.85 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $16.85 (+0.0%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $14.85–$18.85
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $12.58–$22.57
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,427 windows spanning 2020-12-09 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2025-02-11 | −45.4% | −45.4% | +2.9% |
| 2021-04-29 | −45.2% | −45.2% | +0.0% |
| 2025-02-12 | −44.7% | −47.0% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2021-01-06 | +107.7% | −3.8% | +107.7% |
| 2021-01-28 | +92.9% | +0.0% | +92.9% |
| 2021-01-11 | +90.7% | +0.0% | +115.8% |
1,427 overlapping windows · 2020-12-09 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
50%
+2.0%
n=6
Feb
67%
+17.8%
n=6
Mar
33%
−7.9%
n=6
Apr
50%
+1.8%
n=6
May
50%
+1.8%
n=6
Jun
67%
+4.6%
n=6
Jul
50%
−1.6%
n=6
Aug
33%
−6.5%
n=6
Sep
17%
−7.6%
n=6
Oct
60%
+1.2%
n=5
Nov
80%
+18.5%
n=5
Dec
0%
−8.7%
n=5
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Goel Amar K. | director | Sale | 6,250 @ $17.04 | $107K | −14.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 35,580 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Gimbel Lisa | officer | Sale | 500 @ $16.43 | $8K | −3.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 16,427 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Goel Rajeev K. | director | Sale | 49,980 @ $16.49 | $824K | −75.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 16,083 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Kumar Mukul | officer | Sale | 8,000 @ $17.05 | $136K | −6.6% of holding | −0.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 112,945 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Pantelick Steven | officer | Sale | 19,716 @ $17.31 | $341K | −65.6% of holding | −1.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,353 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Pantelick Steven | officer | Sale | 22,203 @ $17.25 | $383K | −42.5% of holding | −3.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 30,069 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Gimbel Lisa | officer | Sale | 500 @ $17.50 | $9K | −3.3% of holding | −3.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 14,561 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Woods Andrew | officer | Sale | 38,331 @ $17.96 | $688K | −49.1% of holding | −7.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 39,761 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-07 | Goel Rajeev K. | director | Sale | 211,302 @ $17.74 | $3.7M | −87.0% of holding | −7.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 31,692 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-23 | Goel Rajeev K. | director | Sale | 49,979 @ $12.35 | $617K | −61.2% of holding | +29.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 31,692 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-16 | Goel Rajeev K. | director | Sale | 8,962 @ $13.94 | $125K | −15.9% of holding | +25.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 47,301 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-16 | Kumar Mukul | officer | Sale | 8,000 @ $13.67 | $109K | −6.6% of holding | +25.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 112,945 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-16 | Woods Andrew | officer | Sale | 3,239 @ $14.01 | $45K | −4.0% of holding | +25.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 78,092 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Goel Rajeev K. | director | Sale | 4,060 @ $13.90 | $56K | −7.9% of holding | +22.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 47,301 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Pantelick Steven | officer | Sale | 12,548 @ $13.42 | $168K | −19.4% of holding | −1.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 52,272 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-06 | Klimenko Paulina | officer | Sale | 9,009 @ $13.42 | $121K | −11.3% of holding | −1.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 71,044 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-02 | Goel Rajeev K. | director | Sale | 50,354 @ $13.65 | $687K | −51.6% of holding | −6.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 47,301 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | Pantelick Steven | officer | Sale | 23,548 @ $13.65 | $321K | −26.6% of holding | −6.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 64,820 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | Klimenko Paulina | officer | Sale | 14,914 @ $13.65 | $204K | −15.7% of holding | −6.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 80,053 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | Goel Rajeev K. | director | Sale | 8,500 @ $13.90 | $118K | −15.2% of holding | −6.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 47,301 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | Kumar Mukul | officer | Sale | 7,897 @ $13.65 | $108K | −6.5% of holding | −6.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 112,945 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | Goel Amar K. | director | Sale | 6,584 @ $13.65 | $90K | −15.6% of holding | −6.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 35,580 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | Woods Andrew | officer | Sale | 5,758 @ $13.65 | $79K | −6.6% of holding | −6.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 81,331 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Goel Rajeev K. | director | Sale | 17,176 @ $13.91 | $239K | −100.0% of holding | −9.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | Goel Rajeev K. | director | Sale | 43,077 @ $11.30 | $487K | −100.0% of holding | +14.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-08 | Goel Rajeev K. | director | Sale | 44,000 @ $11.33 | $499K | −67.5% of holding | +18.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 21,206 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Kumar Mukul | officer | Sale | 8,000 @ $11.96 | $96K | −7.3% of holding | +14.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 100,869 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Goel Rajeev K. | director | Sale | 44,000 @ $10.41 | $458K | −67.5% of holding | +11.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 21,206 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Gimbel Lisa | officer | Sale | 2,863 @ $9.89 | $28K | −17.3% of holding | +13.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,677 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Gimbel Lisa | officer | Sale | 1,396 @ $17.04 | $24K | −7.6% of holding | +13.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 16,927 | Form 4 · filed 92 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | Goel Rajeev K. | director | Sale | 44,000 @ $9.55 | $420K | −67.5% of holding | +19.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 21,206 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-27 | Goel Rajeev K. | director | Sale | 44,000 @ $9.78 | $430K | −67.5% of holding | +8.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 21,206 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-13 | Goel Rajeev K. | director | Sale | 44,000 @ $8.65 | $381K | −67.5% of holding | +5.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 21,206 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-06 | Pantelick Steven | officer | Sale | 16,282 @ $8.44 | $137K | −28.3% of holding | +12.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 41,319 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-06 | Klimenko Paulina | officer | Sale | 11,784 @ $8.44 | $99K | −16.1% of holding | +12.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 61,436 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-02 | Goel Rajeev K. | director | Sale | 49,916 @ $8.17 | $408K | −51.1% of holding | +14.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 47,740 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-02 | Pantelick Steven | officer | Sale | 16,747 @ $8.17 | $137K | −22.5% of holding | +14.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 57,601 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-02 | Klimenko Paulina | officer | Sale | 12,091 @ $8.17 | $99K | −14.2% of holding | +14.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 73,220 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-02 | Kumar Mukul | officer | Sale | 7,830 @ $8.17 | $64K | −7.3% of holding | +14.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 99,485 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-02 | Goel Amar K. | director | Sale | 6,528 @ $8.17 | $53K | −21.3% of holding | +14.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 24,066 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-02 | Woods Andrew | officer | Sale | 5,710 @ $8.17 | $47K | −7.6% of holding | +14.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 69,882 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-30 | Goel Rajeev K. | director | Sale | 44,000 @ $8.10 | $356K | −100.0% of holding | +7.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | Goel Rajeev K. | director | Sale | 44,000 @ $8.72 | $384K | −100.0% of holding | −4.4% | +71.6% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Goel Rajeev K. | director | Sale | 44,000 @ $6.28 | $276K | −100.0% of holding | +32.1% | +163.0% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Gimbel Lisa | officer | Sale | 1,277 @ $6.29 | $8K | −9.1% of holding | +32.1% | +163.0% | 12,775 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | Goel Rajeev K. | director | Sale | 44,000 @ $7.26 | $319K | −100.0% of holding | +22.7% | +77.9% | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-30 | Goel Rajeev K. | director | Sale | 21,592 @ $7.32 | $158K | −51.2% of holding | +15.9% | +68.4% | 20,611 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-20 | Goel Rajeev K. | director | Sale | 44,000 @ $7.55 | $332K | −100.0% of holding | −14.0% | +56.9% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-06 | Klimenko Paulina | officer | Sale | 12,315 @ $8.73 | $108K | −19.2% of holding | −26.8% | +44.3% | 51,780 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-06 | Goel Amar K. | director | Sale | 7,158 @ $8.73 | $63K | −36.4% of holding | −26.8% | +44.3% | 12,496 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-05 | Goel Rajeev K. | director | Sale | 44,000 @ $8.80 | $387K | −100.0% of holding | −24.5% | +41.3% | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-05 | Pantelick Steven | officer | Sale | 18,398 @ $8.81 | $162K | −39.1% of holding | −24.5% | +41.3% | 28,685 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-02 | Goel Rajeev K. | director | Sale | 25,333 @ $8.61 | $218K | −38.7% of holding | −23.1% | +45.0% | 40,183 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-02 | Pantelick Steven | officer | Sale | 12,567 @ $8.61 | $108K | −21.1% of holding | −23.1% | +45.0% | 47,083 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-02 | Klimenko Paulina | officer | Sale | 9,020 @ $8.61 | $78K | −12.3% of holding | −23.1% | +45.0% | 64,095 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-02 | Goel Amar K. | director | Sale | 5,279 @ $8.61 | $45K | −21.2% of holding | −23.1% | +45.0% | 19,654 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-02 | Woods Andrew | officer | Sale | 4,881 @ $8.61 | $42K | −7.5% of holding | −23.1% | +45.0% | 59,769 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-01 | Kumar Mukul | officer | Sale | 5,573 @ $8.61 | $48K | −6.0% of holding | −20.8% | +41.7% | 87,341 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
242 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Goel Amar K. | director | Option exercise | 6,250 | 6,250 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | Goel Amar K. | director | Conversion | 6,250 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | Goel Amar K. | director | Option exercise | 6,250 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | Goel Amar K. | director | Conversion | 6,250 | 41,830 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | Goel Amar K. | director | Conversion | 6,250 | 41,830 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | Goel Amar K. | director | Conversion | 6,250 | 41,830 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | Goel Amar K. | director | Conversion | 6,250 | 41,830 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Goel Rajeev K. | director | Option exercise | 21,871 | 220,355 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Goel Rajeev K. | director | Conversion | 34,371 | 185,984 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Goel Rajeev K. | director | Option exercise | 21,871 | 94,958 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Goel Rajeev K. | director | Conversion | 34,371 | 66,063 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Goel Rajeev K. | director | Conversion | 34,371 | 66,063 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Goel Rajeev K. | director | Conversion | 34,371 | 66,063 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Goel Rajeev K. | director | Conversion | 34,371 | 66,063 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Goel Rajeev K. | director | Conversion | 34,371 | 66,063 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Goel Rajeev K. | director | Conversion | 34,371 | 66,063 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Kumar Mukul | officer | Option exercise | 8,000 | 143,600 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Kumar Mukul | officer | Conversion | 8,000 | 135,600 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Kumar Mukul | officer | Option exercise | 8,000 | 23,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Kumar Mukul | officer | Conversion | 8,000 | 120,945 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Gimbel Lisa | officer | Option exercise | 801 | 17,529 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Gimbel Lisa | officer | Option exercise | 772 | 16,728 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Gimbel Lisa | officer | Option exercise | 801 | 8,013 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Gimbel Lisa | officer | Option exercise | 772 | 4,636 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Gimbel Lisa | officer | Option exercise | 794 | 11,125 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Gimbel Lisa | officer | Option exercise | 794 | 18,323 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Gimbel Lisa | officer | Option exercise | 1,395 | 5,580 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Gimbel Lisa | officer | Option exercise | 1,395 | 15,956 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Goel Rajeev K. | director | Option exercise | 211,302 | 409,786 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Goel Rajeev K. | director | Conversion | 211,302 | 198,484 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Goel Rajeev K. | director | Option exercise | 211,302 | 100,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Goel Rajeev K. | director | Conversion | 211,302 | 242,994 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Goel Rajeev K. | director | Conversion | 211,302 | 242,994 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-23 | Goel Rajeev K. | director | Option exercise | 21,870 | 232,854 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-23 | Goel Rajeev K. | director | Conversion | 12,500 | 198,484 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-23 | Goel Rajeev K. | director | Conversion | 21,870 | 210,984 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-23 | Goel Rajeev K. | director | Option exercise | 21,870 | 116,829 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-23 | Goel Rajeev K. | director | Conversion | 12,500 | 81,671 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-23 | Goel Rajeev K. | director | Conversion | 21,870 | 69,171 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-23 | Goel Rajeev K. | director | Conversion | 12,500 | 81,671 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.