PTON · TickerCove

PTONPeloton Interactive, Inc.Consumer Cyclical · Leisureas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $4.84 · now $4.84 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, PTON has typically landed between $3.22 and $6.72 — a range of −33.5% to +38.8% from the issuance price $4.84.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

1,731 overlapping 1 month windows · 2019-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($4.84) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$4.84 · 21% of range

$3.71 low$9 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−4.5%

typical move · IQR 27.9%

−33.5%worst (p90)+38.8%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where PTON has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $4.84 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $4.84 (+0.0%)
typical $4.62 (-4.5%)
middle 50% $3.95–$5.3
90% range $3.22–$6.72

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,731 windows spanning 2019-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2021-10-25	−55.5%	−55.5%	+0.0%
2021-11-01	−54.5%	−54.5%	+0.0%
2021-10-22	−53.0%	−53.0%	+3.0%
3 best
2023-01-03	+109.1%	+0.0%	+109.1%
2022-12-30	+106.0%	+0.0%	+106.0%
2024-10-10	+87.8%	+0.0%	+87.8%

1,731 overlapping windows · 2019-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~7 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

29%

+3.0%

n=7

Feb

14%

−11.2%

n=7

Mar

14%

−6.1%

n=7

Apr

43%

−5.8%

n=7

May

71%

+6.4%

n=7

Jun

43%

+0.5%

n=7

Jul

86%

+8.5%

n=7

Aug

57%

−1.2%

n=7

Sep

43%

−3.9%

n=7

Oct

57%

+12.7%

n=7

Nov

71%

+10.1%

n=7

Dec

29%

−7.9%

n=7

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-19	Sanders Dion C.	director	Sale	112,512 @ $5.45	$613K	−85.7% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	18,801	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-19	Baig Saqib	officer	Sale	4,912 @ $5.45	$27K	−1.8% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	267,729	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-17	Baig Saqib	officer	Sale	36,439 @ $5.36	$195K	−11.8% of holding	−6.1%	not yet — horizon still open	272,641	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-17	Boone Karen	director	Sale	25,000 @ $5.35	$134K	−9.6% of holding	−6.1%	not yet — horizon still open	236,063	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-20	Kirol Charles Peter	officer	Sale	3,198 @ $6.49	$21K	−1.9% of holding	−22.0%	not yet — horizon still open	161,242	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-14	Baig Saqib	officer	Sale	5,000 @ $6.12	$31K	−2.1% of holding	−14.8%	not yet — horizon still open	229,046	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-09	Baig Saqib	officer	Sale	5,000 @ $5.66	$28K	−2.1% of holding	+2.5%	not yet — horizon still open	234,046	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-22	Baig Saqib	officer	Sale	5,000 @ $5.45	$27K	−2.0% of holding	+1.8%	not yet — horizon still open	239,046	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-05-20	Sanders Dion C.	director	Sale	112,523 @ $5.19	$584K	−100.0% of holding	+4.3%	not yet — horizon still open	0	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-20	Baig Saqib	officer	Sale	5,973 @ $5.19	$31K	−2.4% of holding	+4.3%	not yet — horizon still open	244,046	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-18	Baig Saqib	officer	Sale	29,075 @ $5.27	$153K	−10.4% of holding	+4.0%	not yet — horizon still open	250,019	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-04-27	Baig Saqib	officer	Sale	15,000 @ $5.50	$83K	−7.0% of holding	+7.7%	not yet — horizon still open	199,059	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-20	Kirol Charles Peter	officer	Sale	3,670 @ $5.16	$19K	−2.9% of holding	−2.6%	not yet — horizon still open	121,442	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-16	Kirol Charles Peter	officer	Sale	19,806 @ $5.02	$99K	−13.7% of holding	−0.2%	not yet — horizon still open	125,112	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-16	Caldwell Nick V.	director	Sale	42,632 @ $3.86	$165K	−4.6% of holding	+20.7%	+11.5%	880,956	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-16	Coddington Elizabeth F	officer	Sale	21,819 @ $3.87	$85K	−5.9% of holding	+20.7%	+11.5%	346,535	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-20	Cotter Jennifer Cunningham	officer	Sale	154,497 @ $4.41	$682K	−60.6% of holding	−6.2%	+11.0%	100,269	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-20	Sanders Dion C.	director	Sale	146,844 @ $4.41	$648K	−100.0% of holding	−6.2%	+11.0%	0	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-18	Baig Saqib	officer	Sale	5,722 @ $4.31	$25K	−2.6% of holding	−2.2%	+14.0%	214,059	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-17	Coddington Elizabeth F	officer	Sale	238,013 @ $4.18	$994K	−40.7% of holding	−0.2%	+13.7%	346,535	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-17	Cotter Jennifer Cunningham	officer	Sale	125,432 @ $4.15	$520K	−33.0% of holding	−0.2%	+13.7%	254,766	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-17	Sanders Dion C.	director	Sale	88,242 @ $4.14	$365K	−37.5% of holding	−0.2%	+13.7%	146,844	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-17	Caldwell Nick V.	director	Sale	50,570 @ $4.15	$210K	−5.9% of holding	−0.2%	+13.7%	807,847	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-17	Stern Peter C	director	Sale	31,461 @ $4.14	$130K	−8.4% of holding	−0.2%	+13.7%	344,812	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-17	Baig Saqib	officer	Sale	30,918 @ $4.14	$128K	−12.3% of holding	−0.2%	+13.7%	219,781	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-17	Kirol Charles Peter	officer	Sale	6,419 @ $4.14	$27K	−6.8% of holding	−0.2%	+13.7%	88,408	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-01-21	Kirol Charles Peter	officer	Sale	3,399 @ $5.85	$20K	−4.2% of holding	−25.3%	−5.4%	77,602	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-16	Kirol Charles Peter	officer	Sale	22,520 @ $6.47	$146K	−21.8% of holding	−31.0%	−8.3%	81,001	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-01-13	Caldwell Nick V.	director	Sale	25,135 @ $7.00	$176K	−3.3% of holding	−37.8%	−18.9%	739,085	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-01-13	Baig Saqib	officer	Sale	10,000 @ $6.87	$69K	−5.5% of holding	−37.8%	−18.9%	170,665	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-01-09	Caldwell Nick V.	director	Sale	75,762 @ $7.00	$530K	−9.0% of holding	−36.1%	−18.8%	764,220	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-01-09	Baig Saqib	officer	Sale	5,000 @ $6.95	$35K	−2.7% of holding	−36.1%	−18.8%	180,665	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

268 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-09	Bruzzo Chris	director	Option exercise	9,022	9,023	Form 4
2026-09-09	Thomas-Graham Pamela	director	Option exercise	8,458	8,459	Form 4
2026-09-09	Comonte Tara	director	Option exercise	8,458	8,459	Form 4
2026-09-09	MENDEZ ANGEL L	director	Option exercise	9,022	9,023	Form 4
2026-09-09	Boone Karen	director	Option exercise	9,022	9,023	Form 4
2026-09-09	Comonte Tara	director	Option exercise	8,458	69,583	Form 4
2026-09-09	Bruzzo Chris	director	Option exercise	9,022	268,236	Form 4
2026-09-09	Boone Karen	director	Option exercise	9,022	245,085	Form 4
2026-09-09	MENDEZ ANGEL L	director	Option exercise	9,022	142,634	Form 4
2026-09-09	Thomas-Graham Pamela	director	Option exercise	8,458	143,234	Form 4
2026-09-09	Bruzzo Chris	director	Option exercise	9,022	268,236	Form 4
2026-09-09	Bruzzo Chris	director	Option exercise	9,022	268,236	Form 4
2026-09-09	Bruzzo Chris	director	Option exercise	9,022	268,236	Form 4
2026-09-09	Comonte Tara	director	Option exercise	8,458	69,583	Form 4
2026-09-09	Boone Karen	director	Option exercise	9,022	245,085	Form 4
2026-09-09	Boone Karen	director	Option exercise	9,022	245,085	Form 4
2026-09-09	Thomas-Graham Pamela	director	Option exercise	8,458	143,234	Form 4
2026-09-09	MENDEZ ANGEL L	director	Option exercise	9,022	142,634	Form 4
2026-09-09	Boone Karen	director	Option exercise	9,022	245,085	Form 4
2026-09-09	Thomas-Graham Pamela	director	Option exercise	8,458	143,234	Form 4
2026-09-09	MENDEZ ANGEL L	director	Option exercise	9,022	142,634	Form 4
2026-09-09	Comonte Tara	director	Option exercise	8,458	69,583	Form 4
2026-09-09	MENDEZ ANGEL L	director	Option exercise	9,022	142,634	Form 4
2026-09-09	Thomas-Graham Pamela	director	Option exercise	8,458	143,234	Form 4
2026-09-09	Comonte Tara	director	Option exercise	8,458	69,583	Form 4
2026-09-07	Stern Peter C	director	Award / grant	1,290,878	1,290,878	Form 4
2026-09-07	Stern Peter C	director	Award / grant	664,015	664,015	Form 4
2026-09-07	Caldwell Nick V.	director	Award / grant	273,623	273,623	Form 4
2026-09-07	Stern Peter C	director	Award / grant	196,328	196,328	Form 4
2026-09-07	Baig Saqib	officer	Award / grant	72,967	72,967	Form 4
2026-09-07	Kirol Charles Peter	officer	Award / grant	206,693	206,693	Form 4
2026-09-07	Baig Saqib	officer	Award / grant	180,723	180,723	Form 4
2026-09-07	Sanders Dion C.	director	Award / grant	273,623	273,623	Form 4
2026-09-07	Baig Saqib	officer	Award / grant	86,059	86,059	Form 4
2026-09-07	Kirol Charles Peter	officer	Award / grant	228,019	228,019	Form 4
2026-09-07	Kirol Charles Peter	officer	Award / grant	164,175	164,175	Form 4
2026-08-18	Thacker Siddharth	officer	Award / grant	84,176	84,176	Form 4
2026-08-18	Thacker Siddharth	officer	Award / grant	883,839	883,839	Form 4
2026-08-17	Sanders Dion C.	director	Withheld for tax	136,059	131,313	Form 4
2026-08-17	Caldwell Nick V.	director	Withheld for tax	87,159	1,060,512	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i