PTLO · TickerCove

PTLOPortillo's Inc.Consumer Cyclical · Restaurantsas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $3.72 · now $3.72 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, PTLO has typically landed between $2.91 and $4.66 — a range of −21.8% to +25.1% from the issuance price $3.72.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

1,209 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-10-21 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($3.72) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$3.72 · 0% of range

$3.72 low$6.75 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−3.9%

typical move · IQR 17.3%

−21.8%worst (p90)+25.1%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where PTLO has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $3.72 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $3.72 (+0.0%)
typical $3.57 (-3.9%)
middle 50% $3.25–$3.9
90% range $2.91–$4.66

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,209 windows spanning 2021-10-21 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2021-11-17	−41.5%	−41.7%	+0.0%
2021-11-16	−40.4%	−40.4%	+2.2%
2025-07-07	−38.9%	−38.9%	+0.3%
3 best
2025-01-08	+64.7%	+0.0%	+64.8%
2024-12-24	+60.2%	−0.7%	+60.2%
2025-01-03	+59.4%	−3.3%	+59.4%

1,209 overlapping windows · 2021-10-21 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~5 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

60%

+13.5%

n=5

Feb

60%

−0.8%

n=5

Mar

−5.2%

n=5

Apr

40%

−4.5%

n=5

May

20%

−10.3%

n=5

Jun

40%

+1.0%

n=5

Jul

60%

+6.1%

n=5

Aug

20%

−6.8%

n=5

Sep

20%

−8.9%

n=5

Oct

25%

−3.8%

n=4

Nov

40%

−1.5%

n=5

Dec

20%

−11.2%

n=5

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-12	LEE EUGENE I JR	director	Purchase	65,355 @ $4.59	$300K	+13.4% of holding	−13.0%	not yet — horizon still open	551,770	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-11	LEE EUGENE I JR	director	Purchase	70,165 @ $4.28	$300K	+16.9% of holding	+3.6%	not yet — horizon still open	486,415	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-13	LEE EUGENE I JR	director	Purchase	286,000 @ $5.18	$1.5M	+219.6% of holding	−0.8%	−39.3%	416,250	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-11	Osanloo Michael	director	Purchase	2,000 @ $8.00	$16K	+3.2% of holding	−24.2%	−33.5%	65,317	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-08	Osanloo Michael	director	Purchase	11,320 @ $7.42	$84K	+21.8% of holding	−14.2%	−27.9%	63,317	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-08-07	LEE EUGENE I JR	director	Purchase	130,250 @ $7.68	$1.0M	ownership Δ n/a	−17.1%	−32.7%	130,250	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-07	Hook Michelle Greig	officer	Purchase	40,000 @ $7.67	$307K	+30.0% of holding	−17.1%	−32.7%	173,405	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-07	Kaiser Kelly M	officer	Purchase	27,000 @ $7.68	$207K	+65.1% of holding	−17.1%	−32.7%	68,495	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-19	Berkshire Partners LLC	director	Sale	6,521,015 @ $12.23	$79.8M	−100.0% of holding	−11.8%	−76.6%	0	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-19	Berkshire Partners LLC	director	Sale	2,709,535 @ $12.23	$33.1M	−72.2% of holding	−11.8%	−76.6%	1,045,630	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-19	Berkshire Partners LLC	director	Sale	590,240 @ $12.23	$7.2M	−100.0% of holding	−11.8%	−76.6%	0	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-19	Berkshire Partners LLC	director	Sale	179,210 @ $12.23	$2.2M	−100.0% of holding	−11.8%	−76.6%	0	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-13	Hartung Jack	director	Purchase	72,500 @ $12.82	$929K	ownership Δ n/a	−0.9%	−70.8%	72,500	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

177 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-05	Kaiser Kelly M	officer	Withheld for tax	437	144,920	Form 4
2026-05-31	Kaiser Kelly M	officer	Award / grant	3,161	145,449	Form 4
2026-05-31	Waite Jill Francine	officer	Award / grant	1,146	133,324	Form 4
2026-05-31	Kaiser Kelly M	officer	Withheld for tax	92	145,357	Form 4
2026-05-31	Correia Keith M	officer	Award / grant	73	87,056	Form 4
2026-05-31	Waite Jill Francine	officer	Withheld for tax	33	133,291	Form 4
2026-05-31	Correia Keith M	officer	Withheld for tax	2	87,054	Form 4
2026-05-02	Hook Michelle Greig	officer	Withheld for tax	3,992	301,322	Form 4
2026-05-02	Waite Jill Francine	officer	Withheld for tax	1,840	132,178	Form 4
2026-05-02	Kaiser Kelly M	officer	Withheld for tax	1,840	142,288	Form 4
2026-05-02	Correia Keith M	officer	Withheld for tax	1,226	86,983	Form 4
2026-04-22	Correia Keith M	officer	Withheld for tax	601	88,209	Form 4
2026-04-15	Hook Michelle Greig	officer	Withheld for tax	3,945	305,314	Form 4
2026-04-15	DARDEN TONY J	officer	Withheld for tax	2,182	158,501	Form 4
2026-04-15	Waite Jill Francine	officer	Withheld for tax	1,818	134,018	Form 4
2026-04-15	Kaiser Kelly M	officer	Withheld for tax	1,805	144,128	Form 4
2026-04-15	Correia Keith M	officer	Withheld for tax	1,206	88,810	Form 4
2026-04-15	Hook Michelle Greig	officer	Award / grant	90,579	309,259	Form 4
2026-04-15	Correia Keith M	officer	Award / grant	27,173	90,016	Form 4
2026-04-15	Lauer Denise Peggy	officer	Award / grant	40,760	107,785	Form 4
2026-04-15	LEE EUGENE I JR	director	Award / grant	12,681	73,479	Form 4
2026-04-15	Pecoraro-Striepling Jennifer	officer	Award / grant	40,760	40,760	Form 4
2026-04-15	Patterson Brett	director	Award / grant	271,739	340,823	Form 4
2026-04-15	Waite Jill Francine	officer	Award / grant	40,760	135,836	Form 4
2026-04-15	Kaiser Kelly M	officer	Award / grant	40,760	145,933	Form 4
2026-04-15	DARDEN TONY J	officer	Award / grant	58,876	160,683	Form 4
2026-04-14	DARDEN TONY J	officer	Award / grant	1,034	101,807	Form 4
2026-03-13	Hart Gerard Johan	director	Option exercise	50,070	107,965	Form 4
2026-03-13	Bordelon Ann G.	director	Conversion	17,789	76,216	Form 4
2026-03-13	Hart Gerard Johan	director	Option exercise	50,070	0	Form 4
2026-03-13	Bordelon Ann G.	director	Conversion	17,789	0	Form 4
2026-03-13	Bordelon Ann G.	director	Conversion	17,789	0	Form 4
2026-03-02	Miles Michael	director	Award / grant	47,004	446,917	Form 4
2026-02-28	Hook Michelle Greig	officer	Award / grant	1,501	218,730	Form 4
2026-02-28	Kaiser Kelly M	officer	Award / grant	730	105,198	Form 4
2026-02-28	Waite Jill Francine	officer	Award / grant	404	95,089	Form 4
2026-02-28	Hook Michelle Greig	officer	Withheld for tax	50	218,680	Form 4
2026-02-28	Correia Keith M	officer	Award / grant	28	62,843	Form 4
2026-02-28	Kaiser Kelly M	officer	Withheld for tax	25	105,173	Form 4
2026-02-28	Waite Jill Francine	officer	Withheld for tax	13	95,076	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i