PTHS · TickerCove

PTHSPelthos Therapeutics Inc.Healthcare · Biotechnologyas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $19.42 · now $19.42 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, PTHS has typically landed between $14.25 and $27.69 — a range of −26.6% to +42.6% from the issuance price $19.42.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

286 overlapping 1 month windows · 2025-06-25 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($19.42) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$19.42 · 6% of range

$18.19 low$37.42 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+1.3%

typical move · IQR 18.1%

−26.6%worst (p90)+42.6%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where PTHS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $19.42 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $19.42 (+0.0%)
typical $19.68 (+1.3%)
middle 50% $17.91–$21.44
90% range $14.25–$27.69

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 286 windows spanning 2025-06-25 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2025-11-12	−38.5%	−38.5%	+0.0%
2025-11-13	−35.8%	−35.8%	+0.0%
2025-11-14	−35.0%	−35.0%	+0.0%
3 best
2025-06-25	+86.5%	−0.8%	+87.6%
2025-06-26	+86.2%	+0.0%	+89.2%
2025-08-13	+78.7%	+0.0%	+78.7%

286 overlapping windows · 2025-06-25 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~2 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

−22.5%

n=1

Feb

100%

+9.7%

n=1

Mar

−20.3%

n=1

Apr

100%

+19.0%

n=1

May

100%

+5.9%

n=1

Jun

100%

+6.8%

n=1

Jul

100%

+34.6%

n=2

Aug

50%

−2.1%

n=2

Sep

50%

−0.5%

n=2

Oct

100%

+17.9%

n=1

Nov

−13.9%

n=1

Dec

100%

+9.2%

n=1

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-07-02	Greenleaf Peter	director	Sale	712 @ $26.00	$19K	−2.9% of holding	+2.4%	not yet — horizon still open	23,969	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-07-02	Pauls Matthew	director	Sale	692 @ $26.00	$18K	−4.6% of holding	+2.4%	not yet — horizon still open	14,458	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-07-02	Friedberg Ezra M	director	Sale	534 @ $26.03	$14K	−0.7% of holding	+2.4%	not yet — horizon still open	81,066	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-07-02	Pauls Matthew	director	Sale	94 @ $27.36	$3K	−0.7% of holding	+2.4%	not yet — horizon still open	14,364	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-07-02	Greenleaf Peter	director	Sale	85 @ $27.27	$2K	−0.4% of holding	+2.4%	not yet — horizon still open	23,884	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-07-02	Friedberg Ezra M	director	Sale	24 @ $27.33	$656	−0.0% of holding	+2.4%	not yet — horizon still open	81,042	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-06-15	Friedberg Ezra M	director	Sale	224 @ $27.12	$6K	−0.3% of holding	+1.1%	not yet — horizon still open	81,659	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-15	Friedberg Ezra M	director	Sale	59 @ $27.94	$2K	−0.1% of holding	+1.1%	not yet — horizon still open	81,600	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-11	Davis Todd C	director	Purchase	35,445 @ $27.80	$986K	+88.9% of holding	−13.7%	not yet — horizon still open	75,331	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-06-11	Davis Todd C	director	Purchase	503 @ $28.73	$14K	+0.7% of holding	−13.7%	not yet — horizon still open	75,834	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-22	Francis Knuettel II	director	Sale	1,500 @ $26.84	$40K	−11.7% of holding	+9.1%	not yet — horizon still open	11,316	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-04-02	Greenleaf Peter	director	Sale	420 @ $20.52	$9K	−1.6% of holding	+12.2%	not yet — horizon still open	25,058	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-04-02	Pauls Matthew	director	Sale	415 @ $20.52	$9K	−2.6% of holding	+12.2%	not yet — horizon still open	15,521	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-04-02	Greenleaf Peter	director	Sale	377 @ $21.36	$8K	−1.5% of holding	+12.2%	not yet — horizon still open	24,681	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-04-02	Pauls Matthew	director	Sale	371 @ $21.36	$8K	−2.4% of holding	+12.2%	not yet — horizon still open	15,150	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-04-02	Malamut Richard	director	Sale	310 @ $20.51	$6K	−1.1% of holding	+12.2%	not yet — horizon still open	27,702	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-04-02	Friedberg Ezra M	director	Sale	293 @ $20.51	$6K	−0.4% of holding	+12.2%	not yet — horizon still open	82,292	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-04-02	Malamut Richard	director	Sale	280 @ $21.36	$6K	−1.0% of holding	+12.2%	not yet — horizon still open	27,422	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-04-02	Friedberg Ezra M	director	Sale	265 @ $21.36	$6K	−0.3% of holding	+12.2%	not yet — horizon still open	82,027	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-25	Friedberg Ezra M	director	Sale	5,999 @ $28.00	$168K	−15.0% of holding	−7.7%	−15.1%	34,001	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-25	Friedberg Ezra M	director	Sale	2,000 @ $28.14	$56K	−5.9% of holding	−7.7%	−15.1%	32,001	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-25	Friedberg Ezra M	director	Sale	2,000 @ $28.00	$56K	−6.3% of holding	−7.7%	−15.1%	30,000	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-25	Friedberg Ezra M	director	Sale	1 @ $28.50	$29	−0.0% of holding	−7.7%	−15.1%	32,000	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-01	Friedberg Ezra M	director	Purchase	40,000 @ $0.00	$0	ownership Δ n/a	+53.4%	+106.9%	40,000	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

68 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-05-22	Francis Knuettel II	director	Disposition	13,947	19,525	Form 4
2026-05-22	Francis Knuettel II	director	Award / grant	59,500	59,500	Form 4
2026-05-22	Francis Knuettel II	director	Disposition	42,500	0	Form 4
2026-05-22	Francis Knuettel II	director	Award / grant	59,500	59,500	Form 4
2026-05-22	Francis Knuettel II	director	Disposition	42,500	0	Form 4
2026-05-14	Friedberg Ezra M	director	Withheld for tax	144	81,883	Form 4
2025-12-23	Einhorn Andrew J.	director	Award / grant	12,000	12,000	Form 4
2025-12-23	Einhorn Andrew J.	director	Award / grant	12,000	12,000	Form 4
2025-12-17	LIGAND PHARMACEUTICALS INC	director	Award / grant	—	—	Form 4
2025-12-17	LIGAND PHARMACEUTICALS INC	director	Disposition	—	0	Form 4
2025-12-17	LIGAND PHARMACEUTICALS INC	director	Disposition	—	0	Form 4
2025-12-17	LIGAND PHARMACEUTICALS INC	director	Award / grant	—	—	Form 4
2025-12-10	Pauls Matthew	director	Gift	9,542	1,074	Form 4
2025-11-06	LIGAND PHARMACEUTICALS INC	director	Award / grant	—	—	Form 4
2025-11-06	LIGAND PHARMACEUTICALS INC	director	Award / grant	—	—	Form 4
2025-10-02	Pauls Matthew	director	Option exercise	2,123	10,616	Form 4
2025-10-02	Pauls Matthew	director	Option exercise	2,123	14,862	Form 4
2025-07-02	Pauls Matthew	director	Option exercise	8,493	16,985	Form 4
2025-07-02	Pauls Matthew	director	Option exercise	8,493	8,493	Form 4
2025-07-02	Malamut Richard	director	Award / grant	58,230	58,230	Form 4
2025-07-02	Rangarao Sai	officer	Award / grant	30,518	30,518	Form 4
2025-07-02	Rangarao Sai	officer	Award / grant	93,000	93,000	Form 4
2025-07-02	Rangarao Sai	officer	Award / grant	30,518	30,518	Form 4
2025-07-02	Rangarao Sai	officer	Award / grant	93,000	93,000	Form 4
2025-07-02	Baxter Richard B	director	Award / grant	19,108	19,108	Form 4
2025-07-02	Baxter Richard B	director	Award / grant	58,230	58,230	Form 4
2025-07-02	Davis Todd C	director	Award / grant	19,108	36,969	Form 4
2025-07-02	Davis Todd C	director	Award / grant	58,230	58,230	Form 4
2025-07-02	Francis Knuettel II	director	Award / grant	33,472	33,472	Form 4
2025-07-02	Francis Knuettel II	director	Award / grant	102,000	145,074	Form 4
2025-07-02	Friedberg Ezra M	director	Award / grant	19,108	28,012	Form 4
2025-07-02	Friedberg Ezra M	director	Award / grant	58,230	58,230	Form 4
2025-07-02	Greenleaf Peter	director	Award / grant	77,640	77,640	Form 4
2025-07-02	Greenleaf Peter	director	Award / grant	25,478	25,478	Form 4
2025-07-02	Malamut Richard	director	Award / grant	19,108	28,012	Form 4
2025-07-02	Plesha Scott M.	director	Award / grant	83,678	83,678	Form 4
2025-07-02	Pauls Matthew	director	Award / grant	77,640	77,640	Form 4
2025-07-02	Pauls Matthew	director	Award / grant	25,478	25,478	Form 4
2025-07-02	Malamut Richard	director	Award / grant	19,108	28,012	Form 4
2025-07-02	Malamut Richard	director	Award / grant	58,230	58,230	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i