PTEN · TickerCove

PTENPatterson-UTI Energy, Inc.Energy · Oil & Gas Drillingas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $12.03 · now $12.03 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, PTEN has typically landed between $9.64 and $15.11 — a range of −19.9% to +25.6% from the issuance price $12.03.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($12.03) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$12.03 · 86% of range

$5 low$13.15 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+0.5%

typical move · IQR 19.0%

−19.9%worst (p90)+25.6%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where PTEN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $12.03 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $12.03 (+0.0%)
typical $12.09 (+0.5%)
middle 50% $10.95–$13.24
90% range $9.64–$15.11

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-18	−71.6%	−71.6%	+2.6%
2020-02-11	−71.5%	−71.6%	+2.6%
2020-02-10	−71.1%	−71.1%	+4.6%
3 best
2020-05-07	+110.9%	+0.0%	+110.9%
2020-05-06	+104.6%	+0.0%	+104.6%
2020-11-06	+87.3%	+0.0%	+87.3%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

70%

+3.0%

n=20

Feb

70%

+4.5%

n=20

Mar

60%

−0.7%

n=20

Apr

60%

+6.1%

n=20

May

40%

−0.1%

n=20

Jun

40%

−0.2%

n=20

Jul

55%

+1.6%

n=20

Aug

15%

−5.7%

n=20

Sep

45%

−2.5%

n=20

Oct

50%

+1.3%

n=20

Nov

55%

+3.5%

n=20

Dec

55%

+1.2%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-02	Hendricks William Andrew JR	director	Sale	250,000 @ $12.93	$3.2M	−9.8% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	2,292,474	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-02	Drummond Robert Wayne Jr	director	Sale	198,395 @ $12.85	$2.5M	−17.6% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	928,773	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-01	Wexler Seth David	officer	Sale	120,000 @ $12.75	$1.5M	−22.9% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	404,582	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-09-01	Drummond Robert Wayne Jr	director	Sale	1,605 @ $12.85	$21K	−0.1% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	1,127,168	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-25	STEWART JAMES CARL	director	Sale	207,000 @ $11.54	$2.4M	−100.0% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	0	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-08	Robinson Forrest C	officer	Sale	13,670 @ $12.01	$164K	−19.4% of holding	−23.0%	not yet — horizon still open	56,842	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-05	Hendricks William Andrew JR	director	Sale	200,000 @ $11.64	$2.3M	−7.3% of holding	−17.0%	not yet — horizon still open	2,542,474	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-28	Holcomb James Michael	officer	Sale	150,000 @ $11.47	$1.7M	−26.2% of holding	−13.2%	not yet — horizon still open	421,523	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-05	Jaime Cesar	director	Sale	10,000 @ $12.29	$123K	−11.4% of holding	−4.8%	not yet — horizon still open	77,462	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-04	Drummond Robert Wayne Jr	director	Sale	61,475 @ $12.02	$739K	−5.2% of holding	−6.4%	not yet — horizon still open	1,128,773	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-01	Drummond Robert Wayne Jr	director	Sale	322,699 @ $12.04	$3.9M	−21.3% of holding	−6.7%	not yet — horizon still open	1,190,248	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-05-01	Hendricks William Andrew JR	director	Sale	250,000 @ $11.85	$3.0M	−8.1% of holding	−6.7%	not yet — horizon still open	2,823,103	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-03-16	Drummond Robert Wayne Jr	director	Sale	164,775 @ $10.18	$1.7M	−100.0% of holding	−7.1%	+12.7%	0	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-04	CEPAK TIFFANY THOM	director	Sale	12,000 @ $8.86	$106K	−6.9% of holding	+23.7%	+37.3%	161,111	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-13	Drummond Robert Wayne Jr	director	Sale	400,000 @ $8.17	$3.3M	−70.8% of holding	+35.5%	+40.2%	164,775	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-18	STEWART JAMES CARL	director	Sale	368,254 @ $5.87	$2.2M	−64.0% of holding	+25.8%	+68.9%	207,000	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-17	STEWART JAMES CARL	director	Sale	350,000 @ $5.87	$2.1M	−37.8% of holding	+18.0%	+63.5%	575,254	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-02	STEWART JAMES CARL	director	Sale	74,500 @ $5.51	$410K	−7.5% of holding	+10.3%	−5.7%	925,254	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-09	STEWART JAMES CARL	director	Sale	5,500 @ $5.98	$33K	−0.5% of holding	−2.6%	−15.1%	999,754	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-12	Hendricks William Andrew JR	director	Purchase	25,000 @ $7.88	$197K	+1.0% of holding	−22.8%	−45.4%	2,482,592	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-07	STEWART JAMES CARL	director	Sale	192,000 @ $7.41	$1.4M	−16.0% of holding	−12.1%	−36.3%	1,005,254	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-07	STEWART JAMES CARL	director	Sale	48,149 @ $7.42	$357K	−36.0% of holding	−12.1%	−36.3%	85,475	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-02-14	Drummond Robert Wayne Jr	director	Sale	230,000 @ $8.89	$2.0M	−12.9% of holding	−2.4%	−44.3%	1,549,081	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2024-12-18	STEWART JAMES CARL	director	Sale	80,000 @ $7.36	$589K	−71.2% of holding	+22.0%	−20.0%	32,438	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

101 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-06-09	Robinson Forrest C	officer	Withheld for tax	5,749	71,926	Form 4
2026-06-09	Robinson Forrest C	officer	Award / grant	20,833	77,675	Form 4
2026-05-09	Hendricks William Andrew JR	director	Withheld for tax	48,952	2,742,474	Form 4
2026-05-09	Smith Charles Andrew	officer	Withheld for tax	13,016	713,439	Form 4
2026-05-09	Holcomb James Michael	officer	Withheld for tax	12,395	571,523	Form 4
2026-05-09	BERNS KENNETH N	officer	Withheld for tax	12,096	1,043,987	Form 4
2026-05-09	Wexler Seth David	officer	Withheld for tax	10,363	524,582	Form 4
2026-05-05	Hendricks William Andrew JR	director	Withheld for tax	31,677	2,791,426	Form 4
2026-05-05	BERNS KENNETH N	officer	Withheld for tax	12,680	1,056,083	Form 4
2026-05-05	Smith Charles Andrew	officer	Withheld for tax	11,943	726,455	Form 4
2026-05-05	Holcomb James Michael	officer	Withheld for tax	9,741	583,918	Form 4
2026-05-05	Wexler Seth David	officer	Withheld for tax	8,185	534,945	Form 4
2026-05-01	Hendricks William Andrew JR	director	Disposition	97,333	3,073,103	Form 4
2026-05-01	Hendricks William Andrew JR	director	Withheld for tax	53,989	3,073,103	Form 4
2026-05-01	Smith Charles Andrew	officer	Disposition	24,033	738,398	Form 4
2026-05-01	Holcomb James Michael	officer	Disposition	22,900	593,659	Form 4
2026-05-01	Wexler Seth David	officer	Disposition	20,600	543,130	Form 4
2026-05-01	BERNS KENNETH N	officer	Disposition	20,033	1,068,763	Form 4
2026-05-01	Smith Charles Andrew	officer	Withheld for tax	14,357	738,398	Form 4
2026-05-01	Holcomb James Michael	officer	Withheld for tax	13,665	593,659	Form 4
2026-05-01	Wexler Seth David	officer	Withheld for tax	11,438	543,130	Form 4
2026-05-01	BERNS KENNETH N	officer	Withheld for tax	11,157	1,068,763	Form 4
2026-05-01	Holcomb James Michael	officer	Option exercise	22,900	82,300	Form 4
2026-05-01	Smith Charles Andrew	officer	Option exercise	24,033	762,431	Form 4
2026-05-01	Smith Charles Andrew	officer	Option exercise	24,033	86,467	Form 4
2026-05-01	Wexler Seth David	officer	Option exercise	20,600	74,100	Form 4
2026-05-01	Holcomb James Michael	officer	Option exercise	22,900	616,559	Form 4
2026-05-01	Smith Charles Andrew	officer	Option exercise	24,033	762,431	Form 4
2026-05-01	BERNS KENNETH N	officer	Option exercise	20,033	72,067	Form 4
2026-05-01	Hendricks William Andrew JR	director	Option exercise	97,333	3,170,436	Form 4
2026-05-01	Hendricks William Andrew JR	director	Option exercise	97,333	349,967	Form 4
2026-05-01	BERNS KENNETH N	officer	Option exercise	20,033	1,088,796	Form 4
2026-05-01	Wexler Seth David	officer	Option exercise	20,600	74,100	Form 4
2026-05-01	Wexler Seth David	officer	Option exercise	20,600	563,730	Form 4
2026-05-01	BERNS KENNETH N	officer	Option exercise	20,033	72,067	Form 4
2026-05-01	BERNS KENNETH N	officer	Option exercise	20,033	1,088,796	Form 4
2026-05-01	Hendricks William Andrew JR	director	Option exercise	97,333	3,170,436	Form 4
2026-05-01	Hendricks William Andrew JR	director	Option exercise	97,333	349,967	Form 4
2026-05-01	Holcomb James Michael	officer	Option exercise	22,900	616,559	Form 4
2026-05-01	Holcomb James Michael	officer	Option exercise	22,900	82,300	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i