PTCPTC Inc.Technology · Software - Applicationas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $131.16 · now $131.16 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, PTC has typically landed between $115.05 and $148.42 — a range of −12.3% to +13.2% from the issuance price $131.16.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($131.16) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where PTC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $131.16 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$115.05worst · -12.3%$148.42best · +13.2%
  • now $131.16 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $131.59 (+0.3%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $125.02–$138.15
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $115.05–$148.42
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-20−45.2%−45.2%+0.3%
2020-02-21−45.0%−45.3%+0.0%
2020-02-18−43.8%−43.8%+1.4%
3 best
2012-01-09+48.7%+0.0%+48.7%
2012-01-06+46.3%+0.0%+46.3%
2012-01-12+42.9%+0.0%+42.9%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$13.7B
market cap
$10.49
EPS (TTM)
11.3
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-29
next earnings
Revenue$2.7B
'20'25
Net income$734M
'20'25
Free cash flow$857M
'20'25
Net margin · by yr26.8%
'20'25
ROE · by yr19.2%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.36
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 80 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $131.16$111.70$377.12
  • DCF (intrinsic)$149.67
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 34.2× · n=80$358.81
  • Analyst target · range $130.00–$210.00$180.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$131.16

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
67%
+3.0%
n=18
Feb
63%
+0.1%
n=19
Mar
58%
+0.8%
n=19
Apr
58%
+1.4%
n=19
May
68%
+2.1%
n=19
Jun
58%
−0.1%
n=19
Jul
63%
+3.9%
n=19
Aug
53%
+0.4%
n=19
Sep
47%
−2.0%
n=19
Oct
61%
+2.8%
n=18
Nov
67%
+3.4%
n=18
Dec
44%
+1.3%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$217$1122026-03-16: 1 insider sale, $106K — Lathan Corinna2026-03-03: 1 insider sale, $422K — VON STAATS AARON C2026-02-11: 2 insider sales, $39K — VON STAATS AARON C …2025-12-09: 2 insider sales, $8.7M — Talvitie Kristian …2025-12-08: 4 insider sales, $1.5M — VON STAATS AARON C, Talvitie Kristian …2025-12-05: 4 insider sales, $402K — Talvitie Kristian …2025-11-25: 1 insider sale, $230K — CHRISTENSON ALICE2025-08: 3 open-market sales, $576K2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $230K2025-12: 10 open-market sales, $10.6M2026-02: 2 open-market sales, $39K2026-03: 2 open-market sales, $528K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Lathan Corinna — Sale on 2026-03-16, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer VON STAATS AARON C — Sale on 2026-03-03, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer VON STAATS AARON C — Sale on 2026-02-11, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer VON STAATS AARON C — Sale on 2026-02-11, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Talvitie Kristian — Sale on 2025-12-09, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Talvitie Kristian — Sale on 2025-12-09, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer VON STAATS AARON C — Sale on 2025-12-08, filed same dayofficer VON STAATS AARON C — Sale on 2025-12-08, filed same daydirector Talvitie Kristian — Sale on 2025-12-08, filed same daydirector Talvitie Kristian — Sale on 2025-12-08, filed same daydirector Talvitie Kristian — Sale on 2025-12-05, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Talvitie Kristian — Sale on 2025-12-05, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Talvitie Kristian — Sale on 2025-12-05, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Talvitie Kristian — Sale on 2025-12-05, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer CHRISTENSON ALICE — Sale on 2025-11-25, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-03-16Lathan CorinnadirectorSale675 @ $157.24$106K−7.4% of holding−17.3%−28.7%8,429Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-03VON STAATS AARON CofficerSale2,639 @ $160.00$422K−11.9% of holding−9.2%−18.9%19,582Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-11VON STAATS AARON CofficerSale232 @ $161.06$37K−1.0% of holding+4.5%−14.1%22,229Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-11VON STAATS AARON CofficerSale8 @ $162.23$1K−0.0% of holding+4.5%−14.1%22,221Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-09Talvitie KristiandirectorSale40,061 @ $173.03$6.9M−63.9% of holding−2.9%−40.3%22,616Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-09Talvitie KristiandirectorSale10,230 @ $173.61$1.8M−45.2% of holding−2.9%−40.3%12,386Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-08VON STAATS AARON CofficerSale3,344 @ $175.11$586K−13.0% of holding−1.6%−29.3%22,461Form 4 · filed same day
2025-12-08VON STAATS AARON CofficerSale2,984 @ $174.43$521K−10.4% of holding−1.6%−29.3%25,805Form 4 · filed same day
2025-12-08Talvitie KristiandirectorSale1,838 @ $174.58$321K−2.8% of holding−1.6%−29.3%63,177Form 4 · filed same day
2025-12-08Talvitie KristiandirectorSale500 @ $175.16$88K−0.8% of holding−1.6%−29.3%62,677Form 4 · filed same day
2025-12-05Talvitie KristiandirectorSale1,420 @ $173.13$246K−2.1% of holding−0.3%−29.2%65,615Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-12-05Talvitie KristiandirectorSale400 @ $173.87$70K−0.6% of holding−0.3%−29.2%65,215Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-12-05Talvitie KristiandirectorSale300 @ $172.22$52K−0.4% of holding−0.3%−29.2%67,035Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-12-05Talvitie KristiandirectorSale200 @ $175.47$35K−0.3% of holding−0.3%−29.2%65,015Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-11-25CHRISTENSON ALICEofficerSale1,323 @ $173.52$230K−52.3% of holding−0.8%−32.7%1,207Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-06VON STAATS AARON CofficerSale1,520 @ $216.56$329K−8.8% of holding−3.1%−36.3%15,743Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-06VON STAATS AARON CofficerSale468 @ $215.43$101K−2.6% of holding−3.1%−36.3%17,263Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-04CHRISTENSON ALICEofficerSale676 @ $216.46$146K−70.1% of holding−3.9%−40.9%289Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-09Pham TracdirectorSale38 @ $163.42$6K−100.0% of holding−2.0%−11.5%0Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-05-07VON STAATS AARON CofficerSale1,988 @ $160.00$318K−10.1% of holding−1.0%−3.5%17,731Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-17Lathan CorinnadirectorSale622 @ $155.53$97K−7.6% of holding−2.5%+12.0%7,604Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-05VON STAATS AARON CofficerSale1,088 @ $191.80$209K−5.2% of holding−9.6%+3.4%19,813Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-05VON STAATS AARON CofficerSale94 @ $192.40$18K−0.5% of holding−9.6%+3.4%19,719Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-09VON STAATS AARON CofficerSale4,563 @ $199.97$912K−16.9% of holding−4.9%−14.8%22,517Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-09VON STAATS AARON CofficerSale810 @ $201.04$163K−3.6% of holding−4.9%−14.8%21,707Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-02-05VON STAATS AARON CofficerSale806 @ $191.02$154K−3.7% of holding−0.3%−11.3%20,901Form 4 · filed 368 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

145 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-15Barua NeildirectorWithheld for tax5,54792,477Form 4
2026-08-15STEVENSON JONofficerWithheld for tax1,2043,331Form 4
2026-08-15STEVENSON JONofficerOption exercise4,0998,198Form 4
2026-08-15Barua NeildirectorOption exercise11,47198,024Form 4
2026-08-15STEVENSON JONofficerOption exercise4,0994,535Form 4
2026-08-15Barua NeildirectorOption exercise11,4710Form 4
2026-03-15Pham TracdirectorOption exercise1,1811,180Form 4
2026-03-15Pham TracdirectorOption exercise1,1812,612Form 4
2026-02-11Benjamin Mark DdirectorAward / grant2,0242,024Form 4
2026-02-11BERNSHTEYN ROBERTdirectorOption exercise1,5003,265Form 4
2026-02-11BERNSHTEYN ROBERTdirectorOption exercise1,5000Form 4
2026-02-11BERNSHTEYN ROBERTdirectorAward / grant1,7031,703Form 4
2026-02-11Benjamin Mark DdirectorOption exercise1,50011,183Form 4
2026-02-11Benjamin Mark DdirectorOption exercise1,5000Form 4
2026-02-11CHAFFIN JANICEdirectorOption exercise1,80143,597Form 4
2026-02-11CHAFFIN JANICEdirectorOption exercise1,8010Form 4
2026-02-11CHAFFIN JANICEdirectorAward / grant1,7031,703Form 4
2026-02-11Hanspal AmarpreetdirectorOption exercise1,50010,316Form 4
2026-02-11Hanspal AmarpreetdirectorOption exercise1,5000Form 4
2026-02-11Katz MichaldirectorOption exercise1,5004,875Form 4
2026-02-11Katz MichaldirectorOption exercise1,5000Form 4
2026-02-11Katz MichaldirectorAward / grant1,7031,703Form 4
2026-02-11LACY PAUL AdirectorOption exercise1,50013,393Form 4
2026-02-11LACY PAUL AdirectorOption exercise1,5000Form 4
2026-02-11LICO JAMES AdirectorOption exercise410410Form 4
2026-02-11LICO JAMES AdirectorOption exercise4100Form 4
2026-02-11LICO JAMES AdirectorAward / grant1,7031,703Form 4
2026-02-11Lathan CorinnadirectorOption exercise1,5009,104Form 4
2026-02-11Lathan CorinnadirectorOption exercise1,5000Form 4
2026-02-11Lathan CorinnadirectorAward / grant1,7031,703Form 4
2026-02-11Pham TracdirectorOption exercise1,4311,431Form 4
2026-02-11Pham TracdirectorOption exercise1,4310Form 4
2026-02-11Pham TracdirectorAward / grant1,7031,703Form 4
2026-01-12Barua NeildirectorWithheld for tax2,61186,553Form 4
2026-01-12Barua NeildirectorOption exercise7,62889,164Form 4
2026-01-12Barua NeildirectorOption exercise7,6280Form 4
2026-01-01DiRico Jennifer LeighofficerAward / grant30,13630,136Form 4
2026-01-01DiRico Jennifer LeighofficerAward / grant7,8927,892Form 4
2026-01-01DiRico Jennifer LeighofficerAward / grant15,78515,785Form 4
2025-12-31Talvitie KristiandirectorWithheld for tax14,80928,196Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-07-062026-06-30$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2026-06-102026-05-05$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-04-072026-03-30$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2026-03-102026-02-24$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-03-092026-02-17$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-03-092026-02-24$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-03-092026-02-06$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2026-02-132026-01-28$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-02-062026-01-13$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-02-062026-01-29$1–15K
April Mcclain DelaneyHousesale2026-02-022026-01-23$1–15K
April Mcclain DelaneyHousesale2026-02-022026-01-30$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.