Issued 2026-09-16 at $264.63 · now $264.63 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, PSX has typically landed between $233.65 and $310.27 — a range of −11.7% to +17.2% from the issuance price $264.63.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
3,607 overlapping 1 month windows · 2012-04-12 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($264.63) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where PSX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $264.63 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $264.63 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $272.53 (+3.0%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $255.79–$289.27
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $233.65–$310.27
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,607 windows spanning 2012-04-12 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-21 | −52.8% | −52.8% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-18 | −51.2% | −51.2% | +2.5% |
| 2020-02-19 | −48.3% | −51.4% | +2.1% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-10-28 | +49.8% | +0.0% | +55.5% |
| 2020-11-04 | +46.9% | −2.6% | +46.9% |
| 2020-11-06 | +46.6% | +0.0% | +50.8% |
3,607 overlapping windows · 2012-04-12 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$82.9B
market cap
$10.15
EPS (TTM)
20.4
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-05
next earnings
Revenue$132.2B
'20'25
Net income$4.4B
'20'25
Free cash flow$2.7B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr3.3%
'20'25
ROE · by yr15.1%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.79
'20'25
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 22 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$213.95
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 20.3× · n=22$205.76
- Analyst target · range $170.00–$235.00$208.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$264.63
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~15 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
50%
+1.9%
n=14
Feb
64%
+2.6%
n=14
Mar
64%
+2.0%
n=14
Apr
43%
+0.7%
n=14
May
60%
+1.4%
n=15
Jun
47%
−0.3%
n=15
Jul
73%
+4.2%
n=15
Aug
60%
+2.2%
n=15
Sep
53%
−0.1%
n=15
Oct
57%
+3.2%
n=14
Nov
71%
+5.4%
n=14
Dec
50%
−0.3%
n=14
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12 | Harbison Richard G | officer | Sale | 52,100 @ $223.76 | $11.7M | −57.1% of holding | +16.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 39,094 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | Mandell Brian | officer | Sale | 30,000 @ $215.00 | $6.5M | −32.8% of holding | +16.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 61,595 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Mandell Brian | officer | Sale | 3,300 @ $214.02 | $706K | −5.1% of holding | +22.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 61,595 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Kluppel Ann M | officer | Sale | 2,100 @ $210.63 | $442K | −6.7% of holding | +22.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 29,335 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Kluppel Ann M | officer | Sale | 1,967 @ $215.00 | $423K | −7.2% of holding | +22.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 25,401 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Kluppel Ann M | officer | Sale | 1,967 @ $212.00 | $417K | −6.7% of holding | +22.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 27,368 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Davis Lisa Ann | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $207.21 | $207K | −13.8% of holding | +22.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,267 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Davis Lisa Ann | director | Sale | 315 @ $208.99 | $66K | −5.2% of holding | +22.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,752 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Davis Lisa Ann | director | Sale | 200 @ $208.37 | $42K | −3.2% of holding | +22.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,067 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Kluppel Ann M | officer | Sale | 1,800 @ $205.00 | $369K | −6.6% of holding | +28.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 25,401 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-21 | Sutherland Vanessa Allen | director | Sale | 3,523 @ $2110482.00 | $7.4B | −11.3% of holding | +11.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 27,537 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-20 | Sutherland Vanessa Allen | director | Sale | 563 @ $211.01 | $119K | −1.8% of holding | +13.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 31,060 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-09 | Mitchell Kevin J | officer | Sale | 11,021 @ $190.03 | $2.1M | −10.2% of holding | +4.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 97,376 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Mitchell Kevin J | officer | Sale | 600 @ $171.56 | $103K | −0.6% of holding | +6.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 97,376 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-08 | Mitchell Kevin J | officer | Sale | 29,400 @ $170.00 | $5.0M | −23.2% of holding | +5.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 97,376 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-06 | Meyers Kevin Omar | director | Purchase | 175 @ $173.13 | $30K | +1.1% of holding | +6.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 16,799 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-30 | Mitchell Kevin J | officer | Sale | 15,629 @ $190.07 | $3.0M | −13.8% of holding | −18.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 97,376 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-17 | Meyers Kevin Omar | director | Purchase | 175 @ $173.20 | $30K | +1.1% of holding | −10.3% | +41.3% | 16,624 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-13 | Davis Lisa Ann | director | Sale | 3,800 @ $174.37 | $663K | −30.4% of holding | −13.2% | +34.4% | 8,701 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | Mandell Brian | officer | Sale | 42,800 @ $169.53 | $7.3M | −41.0% of holding | −11.2% | +34.8% | 61,595 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Mitchell Kevin J | officer | Sale | 16,856 @ $168.22 | $2.8M | −14.8% of holding | +9.6% | +40.0% | 97,376 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Mitchell Kevin J | officer | Sale | 4,944 @ $165.03 | $816K | −4.8% of holding | +11.0% | +44.3% | 97,376 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Baldridge Don | officer | Sale | 7,500 @ $160.00 | $1.2M | −16.3% of holding | +13.3% | +43.4% | 38,488 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-04 | Sutherland Vanessa Allen | director | Sale | 4,394 @ $150.00 | $659K | −14.6% of holding | +10.2% | +22.3% | 25,799 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-09 | Sutherland Vanessa Allen | director | Sale | 4,394 @ $145.00 | $637K | −12.7% of holding | +10.9% | +35.0% | 30,193 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-01 | Mandell Brian | officer | Sale | 25,500 @ $140.04 | $3.6M | −31.0% of holding | −8.2% | +22.7% | 56,838 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-18 | Mandell Brian | officer | Sale | 14,100 @ $137.40 | $1.9M | −19.9% of holding | −9.2% | +14.5% | 56,838 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | Mandell Brian | officer | Sale | 12,100 @ $138.00 | $1.7M | −17.6% of holding | −9.2% | +14.5% | 56,838 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-07 | Mitchell Kevin J | officer | Sale | 30,000 @ $138.00 | $4.1M | −25.0% of holding | +0.5% | +18.7% | 89,771 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-26 | Sutherland Vanessa Allen | director | Sale | 4,393 @ $140.00 | $615K | −11.3% of holding | −6.4% | +38.7% | 34,587 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-09 | Sutherland Vanessa Allen | director | Sale | 4,393 @ $135.00 | $593K | −10.1% of holding | −4.5% | +25.7% | 38,980 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-14 | HAYES GREGORY | director | Purchase | 8,350 @ $119.90 | $1.0M | +39.6% of holding | +5.5% | +26.3% | 29,423 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-07-31 | CORNELIUS SIGMUND L | director | Purchase | 500 @ $123.55 | $62K | +2.4% of holding | +7.1% | +8.2% | 21,543 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-30 | Heim Michael A | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $125.97 | $126K | +9.1% of holding | +5.5% | +7.9% | 12,043 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-08 | Sutherland Vanessa Allen | director | Sale | 4,393 @ $130.00 | $571K | −9.2% of holding | −9.8% | −5.1% | 43,373 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-22 | Pease Robert W | director | Purchase | 439 @ $113.85 | $50K | +12.0% of holding | +1.4% | +6.4% | 4,091 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
134 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Kluppel Ann M | officer | Gift | 40 | 25,361 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Harbison Richard G | officer | Option exercise | 23,800 | 91,194 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Harbison Richard G | officer | Option exercise | 14,800 | 67,394 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Harbison Richard G | officer | Option exercise | 13,500 | 52,594 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Harbison Richard G | officer | Option exercise | 14,800 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Harbison Richard G | officer | Option exercise | 23,800 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Harbison Richard G | officer | Option exercise | 13,500 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Mandell Brian | officer | Option exercise | 30,000 | 91,595 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Mandell Brian | officer | Option exercise | 30,000 | 23,400 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Kluppel Ann M | officer | Option exercise | 3,934 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Kluppel Ann M | officer | Option exercise | 3,934 | 31,435 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Mandell Brian | officer | Option exercise | 3,300 | 64,895 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Kluppel Ann M | officer | Option exercise | 2,100 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Kluppel Ann M | officer | Option exercise | 2,100 | 27,501 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Mandell Brian | officer | Option exercise | 3,300 | 53,400 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Kluppel Ann M | officer | Option exercise | 1,800 | 2,100 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Kluppel Ann M | officer | Option exercise | 1,800 | 27,201 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-09 | Mitchell Kevin J | officer | Option exercise | 11,021 | 108,397 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-09 | Mitchell Kevin J | officer | Option exercise | 11,021 | 2,050 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Mitchell Kevin J | officer | Option exercise | 600 | 97,976 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Mitchell Kevin J | officer | Option exercise | 600 | 13,071 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | Mitchell Kevin J | officer | Option exercise | 24,000 | 126,776 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | Mitchell Kevin J | officer | Option exercise | 5,400 | 102,776 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | Mitchell Kevin J | officer | Option exercise | 24,000 | 13,671 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | Mitchell Kevin J | officer | Option exercise | 5,400 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Baldridge Don | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,885 | 32,603 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-30 | Mitchell Kevin J | officer | Option exercise | 15,629 | 113,005 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-30 | Mitchell Kevin J | officer | Option exercise | 15,629 | 37,671 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-16 | Meyers Kevin Omar | director | Award / grant | 949 | 16,449 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-16 | Ungerleider Howard I | director | Award / grant | 949 | 949 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | Mandell Brian | officer | Option exercise | 42,800 | 104,395 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | Mandell Brian | officer | Option exercise | 42,800 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Mitchell Kevin J | officer | Option exercise | 16,856 | 114,232 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Mitchell Kevin J | officer | Option exercise | 16,856 | 5,400 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Mitchell Kevin J | officer | Option exercise | 4,944 | 102,320 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Mitchell Kevin J | officer | Option exercise | 4,944 | 22,256 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Lashier Mark E | director | Award / grant | 29,148 | 110,532 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Mitchell Kevin J | officer | Award / grant | 11,411 | 97,376 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Harbison Richard G | officer | Award / grant | 8,171 | 39,094 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Sutherland Vanessa Allen | director | Award / grant | 7,478 | 31,623 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | sale | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $50–100K |
| Jefferson Shreve | House | sale | 2025-06-22 | 2025-05-12 | $15–50K |
| Jefferson Shreve | House | purchase | 2025-05-08 | 2025-04-07 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-04-10 | 2025-03-21 | $100–250K |
| Shelley Moore Capito | Senate | sale | 2025-02-13 | 2025-01-17 | $1–15K |
| Greg Landsman | House | sale | 2024-11-14 | 2024-10-15 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2024-07-08 | 2024-06-24 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2024-07-08 | 2024-06-20 | $50–100K |
| Robert J. Wittman | House | sale | 2023-09-30 | 2023-08-17 | $1–15K |
| Richard W. Allen | House | sale | 2023-08-10 | 2020-04-15 | $15–50K |
| Richard W. Allen | House | purchase | 2023-08-10 | 2020-02-21 | $15–50K |
| Michael C. Burgess | House | sale | 2023-08-08 | 2023-07-21 | $15–50K |
| Michael C. Burgess | House | purchase | 2023-04-14 | 2023-04-05 | $15–50K |
| Kevin Hern | House | sale | 2023-02-14 | 2023-01-31 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.