Issued 2026-09-16 at $38.05 · now $38.05 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, PSUS has typically landed between $34.24 and $41.60 — a range of −10.0% to +9.3% from the issuance price $38.05.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
76 overlapping 1 month windows · 2024-07-29 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($38.05) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where PSUS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $38.05 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $38.05 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $37.15 (-2.4%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $35.34–$38.95
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $34.24–$41.6
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-05-06 | −10.8% | −10.8% | +0.0% |
| 2026-05-07 | −10.6% | −10.6% | +0.0% |
| 2026-05-13 | −10.3% | −11.8% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2024-07-29 | +401299900.0% | +0.0% | +429799900.0% |
| 2026-07-29 | +9.9% | +0.0% | +12.3% |
| 2026-07-23 | +9.1% | −1.5% | +10.7% |
76 overlapping windows · 2024-07-29 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | POLSKY LISA | director | Purchase | 6,177 @ $39.45 | $244K | ownership Δ n/a | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 6,177 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | TEACHER RETIREMENT SYSTEM OF TEXAS | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 6,205 @ $40.06 | $249K | −0.1% of holding | −1.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,143,795 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | TEACHER RETIREMENT SYSTEM OF TEXAS | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 25,000 @ $38.10 | $953K | −0.2% of holding | +3.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,150,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | TEACHER RETIREMENT SYSTEM OF TEXAS | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 25,000 @ $38.04 | $951K | −0.2% of holding | +3.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,175,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | TEACHER RETIREMENT SYSTEM OF TEXAS | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 25,000 @ $38.19 | $955K | −0.2% of holding | +1.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,220,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | TEACHER RETIREMENT SYSTEM OF TEXAS | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 25,000 @ $38.11 | $953K | −0.2% of holding | +1.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,245,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | TEACHER RETIREMENT SYSTEM OF TEXAS | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 20,000 @ $38.13 | $763K | −0.2% of holding | +1.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,200,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-17 | Herring Bruce | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $40.25 | $201K | +50.0% of holding | −7.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-30 | ACKMAN WILLIAM A | director | Purchase | 3,500,000 @ $50.00 | $175.0M | ownership Δ n/a | −13.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,500,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-30 | ACKMAN WILLIAM A | director | Purchase | 841,000 @ $50.00 | $42.0M | ownership Δ n/a | −13.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 841,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-30 | ISRAEL RYAN | director | Purchase | 500,000 @ $50.00 | $25.0M | ownership Δ n/a | −13.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 500,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-30 | ACKMAN WILLIAM A | director | Purchase | 500,000 @ $42.00 | $21.0M | +14.3% of holding | −13.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,000,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-30 | Hakim Ben | director | Purchase | 250,000 @ $50.00 | $12.5M | +250.0% of holding | −13.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 350,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-30 | Botta Nicholas Anthony | director | Purchase | 250,000 @ $50.00 | $12.5M | ownership Δ n/a | −13.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 250,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-30 | Coussin Halit | director | Purchase | 200,000 @ $50.00 | $10.0M | ownership Δ n/a | −13.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 200,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-30 | Hakim Ben | director | Purchase | 100,000 @ $50.00 | $5.0M | ownership Δ n/a | −13.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 100,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-30 | Gonnella Michael | officer | Purchase | 100,000 @ $50.00 | $5.0M | ownership Δ n/a | −13.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 100,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-30 | ACKMAN WILLIAM A | director | Purchase | 34,971 @ $50.00 | $1.7M | +165.0% of holding | −13.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 56,171 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-30 | ACKMAN WILLIAM A | director | Purchase | 21,200 @ $50.00 | $1.1M | ownership Δ n/a | −13.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 21,200 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-30 | Herring Bruce | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $43.41 | $434K | ownership Δ n/a | −13.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-30 | Falzone Jessica A | officer | Purchase | 2,000 @ $50.00 | $100K | ownership Δ n/a | −13.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
4 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | Pershing Square Management, LLC | director | Other acquisition | 96,000,000 | 342,320 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | Pershing Square Management, LLC | director | Award / grant | 96,000,000 | 96,342,320 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | Pershing Square Management, LLC | director | Award / grant | 3,657,680 | 4,000,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | Pershing Square Management, LLC | director | Award / grant | 1,000,000 | 1,000,000 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.