PSNYPolestar Automotive Holding UK PLCConsumer Cyclical · Auto - Manufacturersas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $7.30 · now $7.30 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, PSNY has typically landed between $4.88 and $9.64 — a range of −33.1% to +32.0% from the issuance price $7.30.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

1,318 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-05-18 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($7.30) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where PSNY has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $7.3 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$4.88worst · -33.1%$9.64best · +32.0%
  • now $7.3 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $6.93 (-5.1%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $6.13–$7.72
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $4.88–$9.64
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,318 windows spanning 2021-05-18 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2024-05-15−50.4%−50.4%+0.0%
2025-11-11−49.7%−49.7%+0.0%
2026-08-14−48.6%−48.6%+2.4%
3 best
2024-08-15+144.3%+0.0%+144.3%
2024-08-09+136.5%+0.0%+136.5%
2024-08-07+119.4%+0.0%+119.4%

1,318 overlapping windows · 2021-05-18 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
20%
−8.4%
n=5
Feb
60%
+11.6%
n=5
Mar
20%
−15.3%
n=5
Apr
40%
−3.0%
n=5
May
40%
−5.6%
n=5
Jun
50%
−3.8%
n=6
Jul
50%
−1.7%
n=6
Aug
33%
+7.2%
n=6
Sep
33%
−14.1%
n=6
Oct
20%
−15.3%
n=5
Nov
80%
+14.2%
n=5
Dec
40%
−3.9%
n=5

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$41$72026-07-02: 1 insider purchase, $26K — Dubin Cynthia S2026-06-30: 3 insider purchases, $79K — Zhang Quan (Joe), Gamboni Francesca Paola Leandra, Gorjanc Christine Marie2026-06-29: 3 insider purchases, $178K — Vahland Winfried, Shen Xiaojie, Neumann Karl-Thomas2026-06-01: 1 insider purchase, $132K — Vahland Winfried2026-04-27: 5 insider sales, $74K — Rudensjo Anna Elin Margareta, Engstrom Jonas Hakan, Dicken Scott Fraser, Simonsson Beatrice Ingmarie …2026-04: 5 open-market sales, $74K2026-06: 7 open-market purchases, $389K2026-07: 1 open-market purchase, $26K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Dubin Cynthia S — Purchase on 2026-07-02, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Zhang Quan (Joe) — Purchase on 2026-06-30, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Gamboni Francesca Paola Leandra — Purchase on 2026-06-30, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Gorjanc Christine Marie — Purchase on 2026-06-30, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Vahland Winfried — Purchase on 2026-06-29, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Shen Xiaojie — Purchase on 2026-06-29, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Neumann Karl-Thomas — Purchase on 2026-06-29, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Vahland Winfried — Purchase on 2026-06-01, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Rudensjo Anna Elin Margareta — Sale on 2026-04-27, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Engstrom Jonas Hakan — Sale on 2026-04-27, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Dicken Scott Fraser — Sale on 2026-04-27, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Simonsson Beatrice Ingmarie — Sale on 2026-04-27, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Henricsson Nina Josefin — Sale on 2026-04-27, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-07-02Dubin Cynthia SdirectorPurchase1,275 @ $20.72$26K+66.4% of holding−30.6%not yet — horizon still open3,195Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-06-30Zhang Quan (Joe)directorPurchase1,700 @ $17.70$30K+106.3% of holding−23.8%not yet — horizon still open3,300Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-30Gamboni Francesca Paola LeandradirectorPurchase1,709 @ $17.56$30K+55.4% of holding−23.8%not yet — horizon still open4,792Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-30Gorjanc Christine MariedirectorPurchase978 @ $18.83$18K+52.2% of holding−23.8%not yet — horizon still open2,850Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-29Vahland WinfrieddirectorPurchase6,000 @ $16.95$102K+18.8% of holding−21.0%not yet — horizon still open37,979Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-29Shen XiaojiedirectorPurchase2,436 @ $17.31$42K+49.4% of holding−21.0%not yet — horizon still open7,369Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-29Neumann Karl-ThomasdirectorPurchase2,009 @ $16.93$34K+33.5% of holding−21.0%not yet — horizon still open7,998Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-01Vahland WinfrieddirectorPurchase6,700 @ $19.72$132K+26.5% of holding+7.7%not yet — horizon still open31,979Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-27Rudensjo Anna Elin MargaretaofficerSale1,387 @ $17.68$25K−29.1% of holding+21.6%not yet — horizon still open3,379Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-27Engstrom Jonas HakanofficerSale1,250 @ $17.68$22K−33.2% of holding+21.6%not yet — horizon still open2,518Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-27Dicken Scott FraserofficerSale895 @ $17.68$16K−48.2% of holding+21.6%not yet — horizon still open961Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-27Simonsson Beatrice IngmarieofficerSale527 @ $17.68$9K−46.3% of holding+21.6%not yet — horizon still open612Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-27Henricsson Nina JosefinofficerSale152 @ $17.68$3K−43.6% of holding+21.6%not yet — horizon still open197Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

17 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-04-28Klang Lisa Marie ThomsonofficerAward / grant2,1612,161Form 4
2026-04-21Engstrom Jonas HakanofficerAward / grant2313,768Form 4
2026-04-21Engstrom Jonas HakanofficerOption exercise1,5880Form 4
2026-04-21Dicken Scott FraserofficerOption exercise1,7641,764Form 4
2026-04-21Dicken Scott FraserofficerAward / grant921,856Form 4
2026-04-21Dicken Scott FraserofficerOption exercise1,5880Form 4
2026-04-21Engstrom Jonas HakanofficerOption exercise4400Form 4
2026-04-21Dicken Scott FraserofficerOption exercise1760Form 4
2026-04-21Rudensjo Anna Elin MargaretaofficerOption exercise1,5883,843Form 4
2026-04-21Rudensjo Anna Elin MargaretaofficerAward / grant9234,766Form 4
2026-04-21Rudensjo Anna Elin MargaretaofficerOption exercise1,5880Form 4
2026-04-21Simonsson Beatrice IngmarieofficerOption exercise9531,139Form 4
2026-04-21Henricsson Nina JosefinofficerOption exercise1760Form 4
2026-04-21Simonsson Beatrice IngmarieofficerOption exercise9530Form 4
2026-04-21Henricsson Nina JosefinofficerAward / grant92349Form 4
2026-04-21Henricsson Nina JosefinofficerOption exercise176257Form 4
2026-04-21Engstrom Jonas HakanofficerOption exercise2,0283,537Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.