Issued 2026-09-16 at $16.11 · now $16.11 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, PSNL has typically landed between $11.14 and $25.94 — a range of −30.8% to +61.0% from the issuance price $16.11.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,799 overlapping 1 month windows · 2019-06-20 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($16.11) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where PSNL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $16.11 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $16.11 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $15.36 (-4.6%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $12.38–$18.35
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $11.14–$25.94
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,799 windows spanning 2019-06-20 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-13 | −52.4% | −52.4% | +5.0% |
| 2020-02-18 | −51.5% | −54.3% | +0.9% |
| 2020-02-14 | −50.9% | −54.3% | +0.9% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2024-06-18 | +205.6% | −7.1% | +205.6% |
| 2024-07-03 | +202.5% | +0.0% | +223.5% |
| 2024-07-02 | +197.5% | −0.8% | +220.8% |
1,799 overlapping windows · 2019-06-20 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~8 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
57%
−3.5%
n=7
Feb
29%
−4.0%
n=7
Mar
0%
−15.3%
n=7
Apr
43%
−3.9%
n=7
May
43%
+10.4%
n=7
Jun
71%
+9.0%
n=7
Jul
50%
+23.6%
n=8
Aug
63%
+10.8%
n=8
Sep
13%
−6.7%
n=8
Oct
43%
−0.3%
n=7
Nov
43%
+1.5%
n=7
Dec
71%
+13.7%
n=7
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | Chen Richard | officer | Sale | 100,000 @ $15.15 | $1.5M | −36.5% of holding | −11.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 173,880 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-09 | Hall Christopher M | director | Sale | 100,000 @ $15.08 | $1.5M | −29.8% of holding | −6.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 235,986 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-29 | Tachibana Aaron | officer | Sale | 4,982 @ $14.00 | $70K | −2.4% of holding | −13.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 198,833 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-26 | Hall Christopher M | director | Sale | 100,000 @ $13.15 | $1.3M | −29.8% of holding | −10.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 235,986 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-26 | Tachibana Aaron | officer | Sale | 51,251 @ $13.18 | $675K | −20.5% of holding | −10.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 198,833 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-04 | Tachibana Aaron | officer | Sale | 40,000 @ $12.01 | $480K | −16.7% of holding | +16.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 198,833 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-29 | Hall Christopher M | director | Sale | 80,091 @ $11.02 | $883K | −25.3% of holding | +18.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 235,986 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-29 | Tachibana Aaron | officer | Sale | 38,799 @ $11.58 | $449K | −16.3% of holding | +18.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 198,833 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-28 | Hall Christopher M | director | Sale | 19,909 @ $11.02 | $219K | −7.8% of holding | +26.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 235,986 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-22 | Tachibana Aaron | officer | Sale | 1,201 @ $11.50 | $14K | −0.7% of holding | −25.4% | −3.1% | 164,458 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-22 | Tempus AI, Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 28,000 @ $8.93 | $250K | +0.2% of holding | +16.0% | +36.6% | 13,039,067 | Form 4 · filed 53 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-19 | Tempus AI, Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 29,641 @ $8.39 | $249K | +0.2% of holding | +30.3% | +24.6% | 13,011,067 | Form 4 · filed 56 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-18 | Tempus AI, Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 31,430 @ $7.91 | $249K | +0.2% of holding | +20.1% | +17.5% | 12,981,426 | Form 4 · filed 57 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-17 | Tempus AI, Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 31,650 @ $7.86 | $249K | +0.2% of holding | +20.1% | +19.6% | 12,949,996 | Form 4 · filed 58 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | Tachibana Aaron | officer | Sale | 103,668 @ $10.78 | $1.1M | −38.7% of holding | −30.0% | −11.0% | 164,458 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | Tempus AI, Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 13,888 @ $11.00 | $153K | +0.1% of holding | −30.0% | −11.0% | 12,918,346 | Form 4 · filed 80 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | Tempus AI, Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 9,712 @ $10.08 | $98K | +0.1% of holding | −30.0% | −11.0% | 12,904,458 | Form 4 · filed 80 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-24 | Tempus AI, Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 25,225 @ $9.87 | $249K | +0.2% of holding | −19.4% | −3.6% | 12,894,746 | Form 4 · filed 81 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-21 | Tempus AI, Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 16,599 @ $9.74 | $162K | +0.1% of holding | −18.2% | −17.0% | 12,869,521 | Form 4 · filed 84 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-21 | Tempus AI, Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 9,900 @ $8.84 | $88K | +0.1% of holding | −18.2% | −17.0% | 12,852,922 | Form 4 · filed 84 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-20 | Tempus AI, Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 28,827 @ $8.63 | $249K | +0.2% of holding | +0.1% | −7.7% | 12,843,022 | Form 4 · filed 85 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-19 | Tempus AI, Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 30,645 @ $8.12 | $249K | +0.2% of holding | +0.7% | −10.4% | 12,814,195 | Form 4 · filed 86 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | Tempus AI, Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 64,750 @ $7.67 | $497K | +0.5% of holding | +1.6% | −4.9% | 12,783,550 | Form 4 · filed 87 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | Hall Christopher M | director | Sale | 29,612 @ $8.99 | $266K | −16.6% of holding | +12.9% | −40.6% | 148,486 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-28 | Tachibana Aaron | officer | Sale | 641 @ $6.57 | $4K | −0.4% of holding | −21.9% | +58.0% | 164,458 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-28 | Chen Richard | officer | Sale | 452 @ $6.57 | $3K | −0.4% of holding | −21.9% | +58.0% | 124,505 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-16 | Moore Stephen Michael | officer | Sale | 1,675 @ $4.95 | $8K | −2.5% of holding | +25.3% | +38.0% | 64,200 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-16 | Tachibana Aaron | officer | Sale | 1,291 @ $4.95 | $6K | −0.8% of holding | +25.3% | +38.0% | 165,099 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-16 | Chen Richard | officer | Sale | 910 @ $4.95 | $5K | −0.7% of holding | +25.3% | +38.0% | 124,957 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-28 | Tachibana Aaron | officer | Sale | 708 @ $5.79 | $4K | −0.4% of holding | −18.8% | −2.8% | 166,390 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-28 | Chen Richard | officer | Sale | 519 @ $5.79 | $3K | −0.4% of holding | −18.8% | −2.8% | 123,367 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-16 | Tachibana Aaron | officer | Sale | 6,865 @ $3.82 | $26K | −3.9% of holding | +33.0% | +74.2% | 167,098 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-16 | Chen Richard | officer | Sale | 4,834 @ $3.82 | $18K | −3.8% of holding | +33.0% | +74.2% | 123,886 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-16 | Moore Stephen Michael | officer | Sale | 1,513 @ $3.82 | $6K | −2.2% of holding | +33.0% | +74.2% | 65,875 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
59 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | Chen Richard | officer | Option exercise | 100,000 | 273,880 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Chen Richard | officer | Option exercise | 100,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-09 | Hall Christopher M | director | Option exercise | 100,000 | 335,986 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-09 | Hall Christopher M | director | Option exercise | 66,667 | 133,333 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-09 | Hall Christopher M | director | Option exercise | 33,333 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-29 | Tachibana Aaron | officer | Option exercise | 4,982 | 203,815 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-29 | Tachibana Aaron | officer | Option exercise | 4,982 | 2,489 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Tachibana Aaron | officer | Option exercise | 28,832 | 227,665 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Hall Christopher M | director | Option exercise | 100,000 | 335,986 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Tachibana Aaron | officer | Option exercise | 22,419 | 250,084 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Hall Christopher M | director | Option exercise | 100,000 | 200,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Tachibana Aaron | officer | Option exercise | 28,832 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Tachibana Aaron | officer | Option exercise | 22,419 | 7,471 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Tachibana Aaron | officer | Option exercise | 40,000 | 238,833 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Tachibana Aaron | officer | Option exercise | 40,000 | 28,832 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Tachibana Aaron | officer | Option exercise | 38,799 | 237,632 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Hall Christopher M | director | Option exercise | 80,091 | 316,077 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Hall Christopher M | director | Option exercise | 80,091 | 300,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Tachibana Aaron | officer | Option exercise | 38,799 | 68,832 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Hall Christopher M | director | Option exercise | 19,909 | 255,895 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Hall Christopher M | director | Option exercise | 19,909 | 380,091 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Shoff Lonnie | director | Award / grant | 37,500 | 37,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Shoff Lonnie | director | Award / grant | 6,250 | 37,190 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | WIDDER KENNETH J | director | Award / grant | 6,250 | 6,250 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | WIDDER KENNETH J | director | Award / grant | 37,500 | 37,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | EASTHAM KARIN | director | Award / grant | 6,250 | 22,366 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | EASTHAM KARIN | director | Award / grant | 37,500 | 37,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | BOWMAN A BLAINE | director | Award / grant | 6,250 | 19,756 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | BOWMAN A BLAINE | director | Award / grant | 37,500 | 37,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | MYERS WOODROW A JR | director | Award / grant | 6,250 | 32,366 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | MYERS WOODROW A JR | director | Award / grant | 37,500 | 37,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Bloom Olivia Kyusuk | director | Award / grant | 6,250 | 27,265 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Bloom Olivia Kyusuk | director | Award / grant | 37,500 | 37,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | Moore Stephen Michael | officer | Award / grant | 168,750 | 168,750 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | Hall Christopher M | director | Award / grant | 87,500 | 235,986 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | Hall Christopher M | director | Award / grant | 525,000 | 525,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | Tachibana Aaron | officer | Award / grant | 34,375 | 198,833 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | Tachibana Aaron | officer | Award / grant | 206,250 | 206,250 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | Chen Richard | officer | Award / grant | 46,875 | 173,880 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | Chen Richard | officer | Award / grant | 281,250 | 281,250 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.