PSKY · TickerCove

PSKYParamount Skydance Corporation Class B Common StockCommunication Services · Entertainmentas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $11.14 · now $11.14 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, PSKY has typically landed between $8.88 and $13.93 — a range of −20.3% to +25.1% from the issuance price $11.14.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($11.14) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$11.14 · 29% of range

$7.81 low$19.46 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−2.1%

typical move · IQR 16.6%

−20.3%worst (p90)+25.1%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

2 buys · 2 sells · 3 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where PSKY has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $11.14 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $11.14 (+0.0%)
typical $10.9 (-2.1%)
middle 50% $9.98–$11.83
90% range $8.88–$13.93

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-18	−64.7%	−64.7%	+1.6%
2020-02-19	−64.1%	−65.3%	+0.0%
2020-02-14	−63.0%	−63.0%	+2.0%
3 best
2009-07-10	+86.4%	+0.0%	+86.4%
2009-04-01	+85.3%	+0.0%	+85.3%
2009-03-31	+83.4%	+0.0%	+83.4%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iiAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$8.9B

market cap

$-0.57

EPS (TTM)

—

P/E (TTM)

2026-08-04

next earnings

Revenue$29.2B

'23'25

Net income−$6.2B

'23'25

Free cash flow$323M

'23'25

Net margin · by yr-21.2%

'23'25

ROE · by yr-52.9%

'23'25

Debt / equity · by yr1.27

'23'25

Fair value — three views i

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.

DCF (intrinsic)$-102.97
Analyst target · range $10.00–$10.00$10.00
Current price · last close 2026-09-16$11.14

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

61%

+2.2%

n=18

Feb

63%

+0.1%

n=19

Mar

47%

−2.6%

n=19

Apr

63%

+6.3%

n=19

May

53%

+0.4%

n=19

Jun

53%

−1.6%

n=19

Jul

47%

−0.2%

n=19

Aug

47%

+1.7%

n=19

Sep

53%

−0.2%

n=19

Oct

39%

−2.5%

n=18

Nov

67%

+3.8%

n=18

Dec

67%

+2.0%

n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2025-08-07	Cardinale Gerald J.	director	Purchase	83,640,992	—	ownership Δ n/a	+26.7%	−19.4%	83,640,992	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-07	Cardinale Gerald J.	director	Purchase	45,000,000	—	ownership Δ n/a	+26.7%	−19.4%	45,000,000	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-07	Cardinale Gerald J.	director	Purchase	83,640,992	—	ownership Δ n/a	+26.7%	−19.4%	83,640,992	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-07	Cardinale Gerald J.	director	Purchase	45,000,000	—	ownership Δ n/a	+26.7%	−19.4%	45,000,000	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

296 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-02	Gill Charest Katherine	officer	Withheld for tax	4,069	77,108	Form 4
2026-09-02	Gill Charest Katherine	officer	Option exercise	7,969	79,690	Form 4
2026-09-02	Gill Charest Katherine	officer	Option exercise	7,969	81,177	Form 4
2026-08-07	Ellison David Ferris	director	Withheld for tax	127,200	508,959	Form 4
2026-08-07	Brandon-Gordon Andrew Mark	director	Withheld for tax	101,760	417,297	Form 4
2026-08-07	Brandon-Gordon Andrew Mark	director	Option exercise	200,000	519,057	Form 4
2026-08-07	Brandon-Gordon Andrew Mark	director	Option exercise	200,000	3,200,000	Form 4
2026-08-07	Ellison David Ferris	director	Option exercise	250,000	636,159	Form 4
2026-08-07	Ellison David Ferris	director	Option exercise	250,000	4,000,000	Form 4
2026-07-21	Cardinale Gerald J.	director	Option exercise	25,000	25,000	Form 4
2026-07-21	THORNTON JOHN L	director	Award / grant	46,893	46,893	Form 4
2026-07-21	THORNTON JOHN L	director	Option exercise	25,000	0	Form 4
2026-07-21	THORNTON JOHN L	director	Option exercise	25,000	25,000	Form 4
2026-07-21	Cardinale Gerald J.	director	Option exercise	25,000	0	Form 4
2026-07-21	Campion Andrew	director	Award / grant	46,893	46,893	Form 4
2026-07-21	Campion Andrew	director	Option exercise	17,433	0	Form 4
2026-07-21	Campion Andrew	director	Option exercise	17,433	17,433	Form 4
2026-07-21	CATZ SAFRA	director	Award / grant	46,893	46,893	Form 4
2026-07-21	CATZ SAFRA	director	Option exercise	25,000	0	Form 4
2026-07-21	CATZ SAFRA	director	Option exercise	25,000	25,000	Form 4
2026-07-21	Byrne Barbara M	director	Award / grant	46,893	46,893	Form 4
2026-07-21	Byrne Barbara M	director	Option exercise	25,000	0	Form 4
2026-07-21	Byrne Barbara M	director	Option exercise	25,000	86,389	Form 4
2026-07-21	Marinelli Paul T	director	Award / grant	46,893	46,893	Form 4
2026-07-21	Marinelli Paul T	director	Option exercise	25,000	0	Form 4
2026-07-21	Marinelli Paul T	director	Option exercise	25,000	25,000	Form 4
2026-07-21	Lansing Sherry	director	Award / grant	46,893	46,893	Form 4
2026-07-21	Lansing Sherry	director	Option exercise	25,000	0	Form 4
2026-07-21	Lansing Sherry	director	Option exercise	25,000	25,000	Form 4
2026-07-21	Hamill Justin	director	Award / grant	46,893	46,893	Form 4
2026-07-21	Hamill Justin	director	Option exercise	25,000	0	Form 4
2026-07-21	Hamill Justin	director	Option exercise	25,000	25,000	Form 4
2026-07-21	Cardinale Gerald J.	director	Award / grant	46,893	46,893	Form 4
2026-07-15	Cinelli Dennis	director	Withheld for tax	95,401	197,232	Form 4
2026-07-15	Cinelli Dennis	director	Option exercise	187,500	3,375,000	Form 4
2026-07-15	Cinelli Dennis	director	Option exercise	187,500	292,633	Form 4
2026-07-06	Delrahim Makan	officer	Option exercise	150,000	2,550,000	Form 4
2026-07-06	Delrahim Makan	officer	Option exercise	150,000	387,093	Form 4
2026-07-02	Byrne Barbara M	director	Award / grant	315	61,356	Form 4
2026-07-02	Byrne Barbara M	director	Option exercise	16,340	61,041	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iiDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks

Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

Member	Chamber	Type	Filed	Traded	Size
Ro Khanna	House	purchase	2026-06-09	2026-05-15	$1–15K
Gilbert Cisneros	House	sale	2026-06-08	2026-05-15	$1–15K
Gilbert Cisneros	House	purchase	2026-04-07	2026-03-13	$1–15K
Laura Friedman	House	sale	2025-10-08	2025-09-10	$1–15K
Laura Friedman	House	exchange	2025-09-09	2025-08-07	$1–15K

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Fair value — three views i

Seasonality · by month i