PSECProspect Capital CorporationFinancial Services · Asset Managementas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $2.20 · now $2.20 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, PSEC has typically landed between $1.90 and $2.42 — a range of −13.5% to +10.2% from the issuance price $2.20.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,002 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($2.20) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where PSEC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $2.2 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$1.9worst · -13.5%$2.42best · +10.2%
  • now $2.2 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $2.19 (-0.5%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $2.08–$2.3
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $1.9–$2.42
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,002 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-09-10−50.7%−50.7%+3.5%
2009-02-05−40.3%−40.3%+1.6%
2009-02-04−38.9%−38.9%+0.8%
3 best
2008-10-09+67.5%+0.0%+101.6%
2020-05-07+43.6%−1.1%+43.6%
2020-05-11+40.8%+0.0%+45.3%

5,002 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
70%
+2.8%
n=20
Feb
60%
+1.7%
n=20
Mar
45%
−0.4%
n=20
Apr
50%
+0.1%
n=20
May
35%
−1.8%
n=20
Jun
50%
+0.0%
n=20
Jul
55%
+0.9%
n=20
Aug
50%
+0.4%
n=20
Sep
40%
−1.0%
n=20
Oct
40%
+0.1%
n=20
Nov
65%
+2.4%
n=20
Dec
35%
−0.3%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$3$22026-09-04: 1 insider purchase, $2.7M — Barry John F2026-06-23: 2 insider purchases, $2.4M — Barry John F …2026-06-22: 1 insider purchase, $2.2M — Barry John F2026-05-26: 2 insider purchases, $1.0M — Barry John F …2026-05-22: 3 insider purchases, $539K — Barry John F …2026-05-21: 2 insider purchases, $452K — Barry John F …2026-02-11: 1 insider purchase, $2.7M — Eliasek M Grier2025-09-25: 2 insider purchases, $3.5M — Barry John F, Eliasek M Grier2025-09-24: 1 insider purchase, $1.9M — Barry John F2025-09-23: 1 insider purchase, $1.0M — Barry John F2025-09-22: 1 insider purchase, $997K — Barry John F2025-09-17: 1 insider purchase, $7K — Stark Eugene S2025-09: 6 open-market purchases, $7.5M2026-02: 1 open-market purchase, $2.7M2026-05: 7 open-market purchases, $2.0M2026-06: 3 open-market purchases, $4.7M2026-09: 1 open-market purchase, $2.7M↑ buys↓ salesdirector Barry John F — Purchase on 2026-09-04, filed 5 days after the tradedirector Barry John F — Purchase on 2026-06-23, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Barry John F — Purchase on 2026-06-23, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Barry John F — Purchase on 2026-06-22, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Barry John F — Purchase on 2026-05-26, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Barry John F — Purchase on 2026-05-26, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Barry John F — Purchase on 2026-05-22, filed 5 days after the tradedirector Barry John F — Purchase on 2026-05-22, filed 5 days after the tradedirector Barry John F — Purchase on 2026-05-22, filed 5 days after the tradedirector Barry John F — Purchase on 2026-05-21, filed 5 days after the tradedirector Barry John F — Purchase on 2026-05-21, filed 5 days after the tradedirector Eliasek M Grier — Purchase on 2026-02-11, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Barry John F — Purchase on 2025-09-25, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Eliasek M Grier — Purchase on 2025-09-25, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Barry John F — Purchase on 2025-09-24, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Barry John F — Purchase on 2025-09-23, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Barry John F — Purchase on 2025-09-22, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Stark Eugene S — Purchase on 2025-09-17, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-04Barry John FdirectorPurchase1,217,105 @ $2.24$2.7M+1.4% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open90,479,988Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-06-23Barry John FdirectorPurchase1,000,000 @ $2.27$2.3M+1.1% of holding−5.6%not yet — horizon still open89,146,077Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-23Barry John FdirectorPurchase67,648 @ $2.27$154K+0.1% of holding−5.6%not yet — horizon still open89,213,725Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-22Barry John FdirectorPurchase1,000,000 @ $2.25$2.2M+1.1% of holding−3.6%not yet — horizon still open88,146,077Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-26Barry John FdirectorPurchase430,000 @ $2.32$1000K+0.5% of holding+1.5%not yet — horizon still open87,119,376Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-26Barry John FdirectorPurchase3,000 @ $2.33$7K+0.0% of holding+1.5%not yet — horizon still open87,122,376Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-22Barry John FdirectorPurchase100,000 @ $2.33$233K+0.1% of holding+0.5%not yet — horizon still open86,557,351Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-05-22Barry John FdirectorPurchase100,000 @ $2.32$232K+0.1% of holding+0.5%not yet — horizon still open86,657,351Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-05-22Barry John FdirectorPurchase32,000 @ $2.29$73K+0.0% of holding+0.5%not yet — horizon still open86,689,351Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-05-21Barry John FdirectorPurchase100,000 @ $2.28$228K+0.1% of holding+3.3%not yet — horizon still open86,357,351Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-05-21Barry John FdirectorPurchase100,000 @ $2.24$224K+0.1% of holding+3.3%not yet — horizon still open86,457,351Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-02-11Eliasek M GrierdirectorPurchase942,800 @ $2.92$2.7M+37.7% of holding−6.0%−23.3%3,443,930Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-25Barry John FdirectorPurchase925,000 @ $2.72$2.5M+1.1% of holding−0.3%+6.2%86,067,158Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-09-25Eliasek M GrierdirectorPurchase370,000 @ $2.71$1.0M+17.4% of holding−0.3%+6.2%2,501,130Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-09-24Barry John FdirectorPurchase741,158 @ $2.62$1.9M+0.9% of holding+5.3%+10.2%85,142,158Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-23Barry John FdirectorPurchase384,000 @ $2.66$1.0M+0.5% of holding+5.9%+12.1%84,401,000Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-22Barry John FdirectorPurchase374,500 @ $2.66$997K+0.4% of holding+7.3%+10.4%84,017,000Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-17Stark Eugene SdirectorPurchase2,500 @ $2.79$7K+4.3% of holding+1.7%+3.7%60,000Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-23Barry John FdirectorPurchase319,000 @ $3.16$1.0M+0.4% of holding+5.9%−28.4%83,585,026Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-20Barry John FdirectorPurchase623,300 @ $3.19$2.0M+0.8% of holding+3.3%−26.4%83,266,026Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-24Barry John FdirectorPurchase24,000 @ $4.24$102K+0.0% of holding−6.8%−50.1%82,594,540Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-21Barry John FdirectorPurchase24,000 @ $4.26$102K+0.0% of holding−8.1%−52.5%82,570,540Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-20Barry John FdirectorPurchase24,000 @ $4.28$103K+0.0% of holding−8.1%−50.7%82,546,540Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-19Barry John FdirectorPurchase24,000 @ $4.30$103K+0.0% of holding−8.5%−49.5%82,509,933Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-18Barry John FdirectorPurchase24,000 @ $4.30$103K+0.0% of holding−12.2%−48.9%82,485,933Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-18Gremp WilliamdirectorPurchase14,623 @ $4.29$63K+26.1% of holding−12.2%−48.9%70,676Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-18Gremp WilliamdirectorPurchase4,477 @ $4.30$19K+6.3% of holding−12.2%−48.9%75,153Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-17Barry John FdirectorPurchase240,000 @ $4.30$1.0M+0.3% of holding−10.9%−46.5%82,461,933Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-14Barry John FdirectorPurchase240,000 @ $4.28$1.0M+0.3% of holding−11.6%−48.6%82,221,933Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-14Gremp WilliamdirectorPurchase900 @ $4.24$4K+1.6% of holding−11.6%−48.6%56,053Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-13Barry John FdirectorPurchase240,000 @ $4.20$1.0M+0.3% of holding−11.2%−47.7%81,981,933Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-12Barry John FdirectorPurchase240,000 @ $4.25$1.0M+0.3% of holding−10.8%−46.8%81,741,933Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-11Barry John FdirectorPurchase1,000,000 @ $4.33$4.3M+1.2% of holding−11.5%−47.6%81,501,933Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-11Barry John FdirectorPurchase1,000,000 @ $4.31$4.3M+1.3% of holding−11.5%−47.6%80,501,933Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-24Barry John FdirectorPurchase2,000,000 @ $4.29$8.6M+2.6% of holding+0.7%−24.1%79,477,549Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.