PSBDPalmer Square Capital BDC Inc.Financial Services · Asset Managementas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $10.24 · now $10.24 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, PSBD has typically landed between $9.36 and $10.88 — a range of −8.6% to +6.2% from the issuance price $10.24.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

647 overlapping 1 month windows · 2024-01-18 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($10.24) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where PSBD has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $10.24 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$9.36worst · -8.6%$10.88best · +6.2%
  • now $10.24 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $10.24 (+0.0%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $10–$10.48
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $9.36–$10.88
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 647 windows spanning 2024-01-18 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2025-03-10−16.8%−16.8%+0.0%
2025-03-06−14.3%−14.3%+0.0%
2025-03-07−12.7%−12.7%+0.0%
3 best
2025-05-08+15.0%+0.0%+16.3%
2026-04-01+15.0%+0.0%+15.0%
2026-04-02+13.8%+0.0%+13.8%

647 overlapping windows · 2024-01-18 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~3 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
−0.6%
n=2
Feb
0%
−4.5%
n=3
Mar
33%
−3.2%
n=3
Apr
67%
+2.7%
n=3
May
67%
+3.0%
n=3
Jun
67%
+1.3%
n=3
Jul
33%
−2.0%
n=3
Aug
67%
+3.1%
n=3
Sep
33%
−2.9%
n=3
Oct
50%
−1.0%
n=2
Nov
100%
+0.6%
n=2
Dec
50%
−0.1%
n=2

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$12$92026-07-07: 1 insider purchase, $225K — Bicknell Martin C2026-07-06: 1 insider purchase, $422K — Bicknell Martin C2026-07-02: 1 insider purchase, $422K — Bicknell Martin C2026-07-01: 1 insider purchase, $423K — Bicknell Martin C2026-06-08: 1 insider purchase, $21K — Bicknell Martin C2026-06-05: 1 insider purchase, $324K — Bicknell Martin C2026-05-29: 1 insider purchase, $163K — Bicknell Martin C2025-11-06: 1 insider sale, $359K — Alaris Master Fund LP2025-10-22: 1 insider sale, $6.7M — Alaris Master Fund LP2025-10: 1 open-market sale, $6.7M2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $359K2026-05: 1 open-market purchase, $163K2026-06: 2 open-market purchases, $345K2026-07: 4 open-market purchases, $1.5M↑ buys↓ salestenPercentOwner Bicknell Martin C — Purchase on 2026-07-07, filed same daytenPercentOwner Bicknell Martin C — Purchase on 2026-07-06, filed 1 day after the tradetenPercentOwner Bicknell Martin C — Purchase on 2026-07-02, filed same daytenPercentOwner Bicknell Martin C — Purchase on 2026-07-01, filed 1 day after the tradetenPercentOwner Bicknell Martin C — Purchase on 2026-06-08, filed 22 days after the tradetenPercentOwner Bicknell Martin C — Purchase on 2026-06-05, filed 25 days after the tradetenPercentOwner Bicknell Martin C — Purchase on 2026-05-29, filed 32 days after the tradetenPercentOwner Alaris Master Fund LP — Sale on 2025-11-06, filed 4 days after the tradetenPercentOwner Alaris Master Fund LP — Sale on 2025-10-22, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-07-07Bicknell Martin CtenPercentOwnerPurchase21,484 @ $10.47$225K+6.1% of holding−7.2%not yet — horizon still open373,472Form 4 · filed same day
2026-07-06Bicknell Martin CtenPercentOwnerPurchase40,000 @ $10.56$422K+12.8% of holding−8.4%not yet — horizon still open351,988Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-02Bicknell Martin CtenPercentOwnerPurchase40,000 @ $10.55$422K+14.7% of holding−8.6%not yet — horizon still open311,988Form 4 · filed same day
2026-07-01Bicknell Martin CtenPercentOwnerPurchase40,000 @ $10.57$423K+17.2% of holding−9.9%not yet — horizon still open271,988Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-08Bicknell Martin CtenPercentOwnerPurchase1,988 @ $10.80$21K+0.9% of holding−0.9%not yet — horizon still open231,988Form 4 · filed 22 days after the trade
2026-06-05Bicknell Martin CtenPercentOwnerPurchase30,000 @ $10.79$324K+15.0% of holding−2.3%not yet — horizon still open230,000Form 4 · filed 25 days after the trade
2026-05-29Bicknell Martin CtenPercentOwnerPurchase15,000 @ $10.87$163K+8.1% of holding+0.6%not yet — horizon still open200,000Form 4 · filed 32 days after the trade
2025-11-06Alaris Master Fund LPtenPercentOwnerSale30,000 @ $11.97$359K−0.9% of holding−0.9%−15.8%3,145,027Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-10-22Alaris Master Fund LPtenPercentOwnerSale532,350 @ $12.56$6.7M−14.4% of holding−4.1%−18.1%3,175,027Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-21Bloomfield Matthew LofficerPurchase750 @ $14.51$11K+1.3% of holding−0.8%−20.5%59,678Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-03-11Bloomfield Matthew LofficerPurchase7,000 @ $15.05$105K+13.5% of holding−7.4%−21.2%58,928Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-10Bloomfield Matthew LofficerPurchase5,250 @ $15.25$80K+11.2% of holding−5.7%−20.7%51,928Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-07Bloomfield Matthew LofficerPurchase5,200 @ $15.43$80K+12.5% of holding−0.6%−17.0%46,678Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-06Bloomfield Matthew LofficerPurchase4,000 @ $15.48$62K+10.7% of holding−2.8%−18.9%41,478Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-05Bloomfield Matthew LofficerPurchase5,000 @ $15.34$77K+15.4% of holding−0.1%−16.4%37,478Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-04Bloomfield Matthew LofficerPurchase4,200 @ $15.38$65K+14.9% of holding−5.1%−16.1%32,478Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.