Issued 2026-09-16 at $41.01 · now $41.01 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, PS has typically landed between $32.45 and $53.03 — a range of −20.9% to +29.3% from the issuance price $41.01.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
76 overlapping 1 month windows · 2026-04-29 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($41.01) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where PS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $41.01 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $41.01 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $42.57 (+3.8%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $39–$46.14
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $32.45–$53.03
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-05-11 | −37.5% | −37.5% | +0.0% |
| 2026-05-12 | −34.0% | −36.0% | +0.0% |
| 2026-05-13 | −28.4% | −30.5% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-04-29 | +63.6% | +0.0% | +115.2% |
| 2026-04-30 | +33.5% | +0.0% | +86.1% |
| 2026-07-31 | +29.0% | +0.0% | +29.0% |
76 overlapping windows · 2026-04-29 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | ACKMAN WILLIAM A | director | Purchase | 659,540 @ $23.88 | $15.7M | +84.4% of holding | +28.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,441,302 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-30 | ACKMAN WILLIAM A | director | Purchase | 81,762 @ $22.61 | $1.8M | +11.7% of holding | +28.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 781,762 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-30 | ACKMAN WILLIAM A | director | Purchase | 58,698 @ $24.20 | $1.4M | +4.1% of holding | +28.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,500,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
51 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | ACKMAN WILLIAM A | director | Gift | 10,000,000 | 66,825,763 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | Hakim Ben | director | Disposition | 231,388 | 3,134,632 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | Pershing Square Partner Group LLC | director | Disposition | 13,603,657 | 184,289,699 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | Coussin Halit | director | Disposition | 197,771 | 2,679,219 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | ACKMAN WILLIAM A | director | Disposition | 6,874,237 | 76,825,763 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | Gonnella Michael | officer | Disposition | 192,426 | 2,606,804 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | ISRAEL RYAN | director | Disposition | 667,614 | 9,044,214 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | ACKMAN WILLIAM A | director | Award / grant | 10,489 | 314,729 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | Coppel Calvo David | director | Award / grant | 450,000 | 3,126,557 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | Coppel Calvo David | director | Award / grant | 450,000 | 450,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | ACKMAN WILLIAM A | director | Award / grant | 10,489 | 314,729 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | ACKMAN WILLIAM A | director | Other acquisition | 700,000 | 700,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | ACKMAN WILLIAM A | director | Other acquisition | 4,240 | 304,240 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | ACKMAN WILLIAM A | director | Other acquisition | 168,200 | 168,200 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | ACKMAN WILLIAM A | director | Award / grant | 10,489 | 314,729 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | Lamotte Nicholas M | director | Award / grant | 600,000 | 600,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | Lamotte Nicholas M | director | Other acquisition | 304,000 | 904,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | ACKMAN WILLIAM A | director | Other acquisition | 700,000 | 700,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | ACKMAN WILLIAM A | director | Other acquisition | 168,200 | 168,200 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | ACKMAN WILLIAM A | director | Other acquisition | 4,240 | 304,240 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | Coussin Halit | director | Other acquisition | 40,000 | 2,719,219 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | Gonnella Michael | officer | Other acquisition | 20,000 | 2,626,804 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | Lamotte Nicholas M | director | Award / grant | 600,000 | 600,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | Lamotte Nicholas M | director | Other acquisition | 304,000 | 904,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | ACKMAN WILLIAM A | director | Other acquisition | 700,000 | 700,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | ACKMAN WILLIAM A | director | Other acquisition | 168,200 | 168,200 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | ACKMAN WILLIAM A | director | Other acquisition | 4,240 | 304,240 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | Coppel Calvo David | director | Award / grant | 450,000 | 3,126,557 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | Coppel Calvo David | director | Award / grant | 450,000 | 450,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | Coussin Halit | director | Other acquisition | 40,000 | 2,719,219 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | Gonnella Michael | officer | Other acquisition | 20,000 | 2,626,804 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | Hakim Ben | director | Other acquisition | 20,000 | 3,154,632 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | Hakim Ben | director | Award / grant | 75,000 | 3,229,632 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | ISRAEL RYAN | director | Other acquisition | 100,000 | 9,144,214 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | ISRAEL RYAN | director | Other acquisition | 100,000 | 9,144,214 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | Hakim Ben | director | Other acquisition | 20,000 | 3,154,632 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | Hakim Ben | director | Award / grant | 75,000 | 3,229,632 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-28 | ACKMAN WILLIAM A | director | Gift | 300,000 | 83,700,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-28 | ISRAEL RYAN | director | Award / grant | 23,576,358 | 23,576,358 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-28 | ISRAEL RYAN | director | Award / grant | 23,576,358 | 23,576,358 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.