Issued 2026-09-16 at $20.37 · now $20.37 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, PRVA has typically landed between $16.87 and $24.69 — a range of −17.2% to +21.2% from the issuance price $20.37.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,332 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-04-28 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($20.37) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where PRVA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $20.37 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $20.37 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $20.18 (-0.9%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $18.65–$21.71
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $16.87–$24.69
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,332 windows spanning 2021-04-28 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2021-07-23 | −36.7% | −36.7% | +0.0% |
| 2021-07-22 | −35.1% | −35.1% | +0.0% |
| 2022-10-28 | −31.9% | −31.9% | +2.3% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2021-05-20 | +53.8% | +0.0% | +53.8% |
| 2021-05-19 | +50.2% | −0.4% | +50.2% |
| 2021-04-28 | +48.5% | +0.0% | +65.2% |
1,332 overlapping windows · 2021-04-28 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
40%
+0.7%
n=5
Feb
100%
+9.3%
n=5
Mar
20%
−6.6%
n=5
Apr
60%
+0.3%
n=5
May
17%
−5.5%
n=6
Jun
100%
+13.7%
n=6
Jul
50%
+3.8%
n=6
Aug
33%
−4.0%
n=6
Sep
17%
−8.3%
n=6
Oct
40%
−0.6%
n=5
Nov
40%
−4.6%
n=5
Dec
40%
+1.3%
n=5
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-09 | Mountcastle David | officer | Sale | 21,275 @ $27.67 | $589K | −11.4% of holding | −22.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 164,853 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | Mountcastle David | officer | Sale | 600 @ $27.57 | $17K | −0.3% of holding | −15.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 186,128 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Morris Matthew Shawn | director | Sale | 53,722 @ $27.24 | $1.5M | −44.1% of holding | −15.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 68,188 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | Morris Matthew Shawn | director | Sale | 59,037 @ $27.33 | $1.6M | −43.5% of holding | −14.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 76,651 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | Mountcastle David | officer | Sale | 24,734 @ $27.50 | $680K | −11.7% of holding | −14.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 186,728 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Morris Matthew Shawn | director | Sale | 45,634 @ $26.52 | $1.2M | −28.6% of holding | −12.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 113,692 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Morris Matthew Shawn | director | Sale | 37,041 @ $26.93 | $998K | −32.6% of holding | −12.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 76,651 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | Morris Matthew Shawn | director | Sale | 52,823 @ $25.72 | $1.4M | −40.8% of holding | −6.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 76,651 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-29 | Morris Matthew Shawn | director | Sale | 63,212 @ $25.33 | $1.6M | −45.2% of holding | −4.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 76,651 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-26 | Morris Matthew Shawn | director | Sale | 88,110 @ $25.33 | $2.2M | −53.5% of holding | −4.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 76,651 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-26 | Mountcastle David | officer | Sale | 17,196 @ $25.18 | $433K | −7.5% of holding | −4.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 211,462 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | Mehrotra Parth | director | Sale | 15,647 @ $22.64 | $354K | −3.5% of holding | +1.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 434,357 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Mehrotra Parth | director | Sale | 105,439 @ $22.55 | $2.4M | −19.0% of holding | +2.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 450,004 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Mountcastle David | officer | Sale | 3,385 @ $22.60 | $77K | −1.6% of holding | +2.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 211,462 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | Mountcastle David | officer | Sale | 1,206 @ $25.00 | $30K | −0.6% of holding | −19.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 214,847 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | Morris Matthew Shawn | director | Sale | 1,017 @ $24.96 | $25K | −1.5% of holding | −19.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 68,188 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | Morris Matthew Shawn | director | Sale | 17,096 @ $24.99 | $427K | −20.0% of holding | −21.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 68,188 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | Mountcastle David | officer | Sale | 7,179 @ $25.03 | $180K | −3.2% of holding | −21.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 214,847 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-02 | Mountcastle David | officer | Sale | 5,566 @ $20.85 | $116K | −2.5% of holding | +4.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 214,847 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Mehrotra Parth | director | Sale | 26,509 @ $22.11 | $586K | −4.6% of holding | +1.8% | −21.1% | 555,443 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Mountcastle David | officer | Sale | 6,391 @ $22.11 | $141K | −2.8% of holding | +1.8% | −21.1% | 220,413 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-13 | Mehrotra Parth | director | Sale | 27,229 @ $21.52 | $586K | −4.5% of holding | +1.5% | −19.2% | 581,952 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-13 | Mountcastle David | officer | Sale | 6,565 @ $21.52 | $141K | −2.8% of holding | +1.5% | −19.2% | 226,804 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | Mehrotra Parth | director | Sale | 26,763 @ $21.90 | $586K | −4.2% of holding | +2.6% | −21.4% | 609,181 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | Mountcastle David | officer | Sale | 6,453 @ $21.90 | $141K | −2.7% of holding | +2.6% | −21.4% | 233,369 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | Mehrotra Parth | director | Sale | 21,097 @ $22.71 | $479K | −6.1% of holding | +0.4% | −22.3% | 322,698 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | Mehrotra Parth | director | Sale | 21,915 @ $22.84 | $501K | −5.7% of holding | −2.5% | −24.3% | 363,879 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | Mehrotra Parth | director | Sale | 18,865 @ $22.84 | $431K | −5.2% of holding | −2.5% | −24.3% | 343,795 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | Mountcastle David | officer | Sale | 5,829 @ $22.84 | $133K | −3.5% of holding | −2.5% | −24.3% | 161,903 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | Fargis Edward C | officer | Sale | 4,949 @ $22.84 | $113K | −5.6% of holding | −2.5% | −24.3% | 83,711 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | Mehrotra Parth | director | Sale | 1,219 @ $23.37 | $28K | −0.3% of holding | −2.5% | −24.3% | 362,660 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-06 | Mehrotra Parth | director | Sale | 21,440 @ $23.15 | $496K | −5.3% of holding | −2.1% | −26.4% | 385,794 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-06 | Mountcastle David | officer | Sale | 5,177 @ $23.15 | $120K | −3.0% of holding | −2.1% | −26.4% | 167,732 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-06 | Fargis Edward C | officer | Sale | 4,394 @ $23.15 | $102K | −4.7% of holding | −2.1% | −26.4% | 88,660 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | Morris Matthew Shawn | director | Sale | 16,550 @ $25.00 | $414K | −19.5% of holding | −8.1% | −25.2% | 68,188 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | Mountcastle David | officer | Sale | 7,697 @ $25.05 | $193K | −4.3% of holding | −8.1% | −25.2% | 172,909 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | Morris Matthew Shawn | director | Sale | 7,788 @ $24.99 | $195K | −10.3% of holding | −11.9% | −28.7% | 68,188 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | Mountcastle David | officer | Sale | 5,361 @ $25.00 | $134K | −3.0% of holding | −11.9% | −28.7% | 172,909 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-12 | Mountcastle David | officer | Sale | 23,887 @ $25.03 | $598K | −12.1% of holding | −9.8% | −16.2% | 172,909 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-12 | Morris Matthew Shawn | director | Sale | 13,647 @ $25.01 | $341K | −16.7% of holding | −9.8% | −16.2% | 68,188 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-13 | Mehrotra Parth | director | Sale | 15,909 @ $24.52 | $390K | −3.8% of holding | −9.5% | −17.0% | 407,234 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-12 | Mehrotra Parth | director | Sale | 13,773 @ $24.99 | $344K | −3.2% of holding | −11.3% | −24.1% | 423,143 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-12 | Mountcastle David | officer | Sale | 3,322 @ $24.99 | $83K | −1.9% of holding | −11.3% | −24.1% | 172,909 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-01 | Mehrotra Parth | director | Sale | 17,365 @ $23.08 | $401K | −3.8% of holding | −6.4% | −15.4% | 436,916 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-30 | Mehrotra Parth | director | Sale | 15,100 @ $23.33 | $352K | −3.2% of holding | −9.4% | −15.6% | 454,281 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-30 | Morris Matthew Shawn | director | Sale | 10,309 @ $23.33 | $241K | −14.7% of holding | −9.4% | −15.6% | 59,792 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-30 | Mountcastle David | officer | Sale | 3,445 @ $23.33 | $80K | −1.9% of holding | −9.4% | −15.6% | 176,231 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-02 | Mountcastle David | officer | Sale | 5,630 @ $22.38 | $126K | −3.0% of holding | +3.9% | −9.8% | 179,676 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-12 | Mehrotra Parth | director | Sale | 10,514 @ $24.03 | $253K | −2.2% of holding | +4.3% | −23.0% | 469,381 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-11 | Mehrotra Parth | director | Sale | 9,294 @ $23.88 | $222K | −1.9% of holding | −2.8% | −23.4% | 479,895 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-11 | Mountcastle David | officer | Sale | 2,872 @ $23.88 | $69K | −1.5% of holding | −2.8% | −23.4% | 185,306 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-11 | Fargis Edward C | officer | Sale | 2,438 @ $23.88 | $58K | −2.6% of holding | −2.8% | −23.4% | 93,054 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-10 | Mehrotra Parth | director | Sale | 9,640 @ $24.53 | $236K | −1.9% of holding | +1.9% | −19.0% | 489,189 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-10 | Mountcastle David | officer | Sale | 2,979 @ $24.53 | $73K | −1.6% of holding | +1.9% | −19.0% | 188,178 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-10 | Fargis Edward C | officer | Sale | 2,529 @ $24.53 | $62K | −2.6% of holding | +1.9% | −19.0% | 95,492 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-14 | Mountcastle David | officer | Sale | 100,000 @ $25.15 | $2.5M | −38.8% of holding | +1.6% | −21.5% | 157,727 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
78 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Ernest Opella Finley | director | Award / grant | 6,350 | 6,350 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-06 | Morris Matthew Shawn | director | Option exercise | 53,722 | 130,373 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-06 | Morris Matthew Shawn | director | Option exercise | 53,722 | 3,274,622 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-02 | Morris Matthew Shawn | director | Option exercise | 59,037 | 135,688 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-02 | Morris Matthew Shawn | director | Option exercise | 59,037 | 3,328,344 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Morris Matthew Shawn | director | Option exercise | 82,675 | 159,326 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Morris Matthew Shawn | director | Option exercise | 82,675 | 3,387,381 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Morris Matthew Shawn | director | Option exercise | 52,823 | 129,474 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Morris Matthew Shawn | director | Option exercise | 52,823 | 3,470,056 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-29 | Morris Matthew Shawn | director | Option exercise | 63,212 | 139,863 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-29 | Morris Matthew Shawn | director | Option exercise | 63,212 | 3,522,879 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Morris Matthew Shawn | director | Option exercise | 88,110 | 164,761 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Mountcastle David | officer | Option exercise | 17,196 | 228,658 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Mountcastle David | officer | Option exercise | 5,962 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Mountcastle David | officer | Option exercise | 1,001 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Mountcastle David | officer | Option exercise | 1,336 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Mountcastle David | officer | Option exercise | 8,897 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Morris Matthew Shawn | director | Option exercise | 88,110 | 3,586,091 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | KING DAVID P | director | Award / grant | 8,463 | 50,775 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | McCarthy Thomas A | director | Award / grant | 8,463 | 27,983 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Morris Matthew Shawn | director | Award / grant | 8,463 | 76,651 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Ryu Jaewon | director | Award / grant | 8,463 | 47,110 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | SOISTMAN FRANCIS S JR | director | Award / grant | 8,463 | 8,463 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | COCOZZA NANCY G | director | Award / grant | 8,463 | 42,814 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Kimmet Pamela O | director | Award / grant | 8,463 | 34,172 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | BERBERIAN LANCE | director | Award / grant | 8,463 | 16,131 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Mountcastle David | officer | Option exercise | 1,206 | 216,053 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Morris Matthew Shawn | director | Option exercise | 1,017 | 69,205 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Morris Matthew Shawn | director | Option exercise | 1,017 | 3,674,201 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Mountcastle David | officer | Option exercise | 202 | 1,336 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Mountcastle David | officer | Option exercise | 52 | 1,001 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Mountcastle David | officer | Option exercise | 592 | 8,897 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Mountcastle David | officer | Option exercise | 360 | 5,962 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Morris Matthew Shawn | director | Option exercise | 17,096 | 85,284 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Mountcastle David | officer | Option exercise | 7,179 | 222,026 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Morris Matthew Shawn | director | Option exercise | 17,096 | 3,675,218 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Mountcastle David | officer | Option exercise | 1,297 | 1,538 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Mountcastle David | officer | Option exercise | 2,331 | 6,322 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Mountcastle David | officer | Option exercise | 3,010 | 9,489 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Mountcastle David | officer | Option exercise | 541 | 1,053 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.