PRUPrudential Financial, Inc.Financial Services · Insurance - Lifeas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $117.04 · now $117.04 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, PRU has typically landed between $104.54 and $128.89 — a range of −10.7% to +10.1% from the issuance price $117.04.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($117.04) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where PRU has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $117.04 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$104.54worst · -10.7%$128.89best · +10.1%
  • now $117.04 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $118.4 (+1.2%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $112.77–$124.03
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $104.54–$128.89
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2009-02-05−58.4%−59.6%+8.4%
2008-09-10−58.3%−58.3%+8.1%
2008-10-22−57.8%−57.8%+21.6%
3 best
2009-03-05+111.2%+0.0%+120.9%
2009-03-06+100.3%+0.0%+119.0%
2009-03-11+94.2%+0.0%+94.2%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$41.6B
market cap
$9.79
EPS (TTM)
12.3
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-04
next earnings
Revenue$60.8B
'20'25
Net income$3.6B
'20'25
Free cash flow$6.3B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr5.9%
'20'25
ROE · by yr11.0%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.71
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 69 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $117.04$81.13$166.25
  • DCF (intrinsic)$153.78
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 16.4× · n=69$160.38
  • Analyst target · range $87.00–$114.00$109.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$117.04

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
67%
−0.0%
n=18
Feb
53%
−2.3%
n=19
Mar
53%
+0.4%
n=19
Apr
68%
+4.7%
n=19
May
53%
+1.2%
n=19
Jun
47%
−0.4%
n=19
Jul
74%
+4.8%
n=19
Aug
42%
−0.7%
n=19
Sep
37%
−0.4%
n=19
Oct
72%
−0.5%
n=18
Nov
67%
+3.1%
n=18
Dec
61%
+3.0%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$125$912026-08-14: 1 insider sale, $957K — KAPPLER ANN M2026-05-14: 1 insider sale, $1.4M — KAPPLER ANN M2026-02-17: 1 insider purchase, $26K — Stoddard Thomas D2026-02-11: 1 insider purchase, $42K — Wolk Joseph J2026-02-06: 1 insider purchase, $101K — Chappuis Jacques2025-12-11: 4 insider sales, $762K — Feeney Caroline …2025-12-02: 1 insider sale, $862K — SCHMIDT TIMOTHY L2025-11-10: 1 insider sale, $5.2M — Lowrey Charles F2025-08-29: 1 insider sale, $439K — KAPPLER ANN M2025-08: 1 open-market sale, $439K2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $5.2M2025-12: 5 open-market sales, $1.6M2026-02: 3 open-market purchases, $169K2026-05: 1 open-market sale, $1.4M2026-08: 1 open-market sale, $957K↑ buys↓ salesofficer KAPPLER ANN M — Sale on 2026-08-14, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer KAPPLER ANN M — Sale on 2026-05-14, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Stoddard Thomas D — Purchase on 2026-02-17, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Wolk Joseph J — Purchase on 2026-02-11, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Chappuis Jacques — Purchase on 2026-02-06, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Feeney Caroline — Sale on 2025-12-11, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Feeney Caroline — Sale on 2025-12-11, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Feeney Caroline — Sale on 2025-12-11, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Feeney Caroline — Sale on 2025-12-11, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer SCHMIDT TIMOTHY L — Sale on 2025-12-02, filed same daydirector Lowrey Charles F — Sale on 2025-11-10, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer KAPPLER ANN M — Sale on 2025-08-29, filed 5 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-14KAPPLER ANN MofficerSale7,652 @ $125.01$957K−34.7% of holding−2.2%not yet — horizon still open14,407Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-14KAPPLER ANN MofficerSale13,580 @ $103.25$1.4M−38.1% of holding+5.9%not yet — horizon still open22,059Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-17Stoddard Thomas DdirectorPurchase250 @ $102.97$26Kownership Δ n/a−6.9%+9.3%250Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-11Wolk Joseph JdirectorPurchase400 @ $105.32$42Kownership Δ n/a−7.1%+8.8%400Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-06Chappuis JacquesofficerPurchase1,000 @ $100.97$101Kownership Δ n/a−3.9%+9.5%1,000Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-12-11Feeney CarolineofficerSale2,874 @ $116.28$334K−11.3% of holding−1.4%−14.7%22,575Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-11Feeney CarolineofficerSale2,096 @ $116.28$244K−8.5% of holding−1.4%−14.7%22,596Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-11Feeney CarolineofficerSale1,201 @ $116.28$140K−5.0% of holding−1.4%−14.7%22,617Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-11Feeney CarolineofficerSale384 @ $116.28$45K−1.7% of holding−1.4%−14.7%22,523Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-02SCHMIDT TIMOTHY LofficerSale8,000 @ $107.69$862K−41.0% of holding+5.0%−13.3%11,535Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-10Lowrey Charles FdirectorSale48,164 @ $107.39$5.2M−22.5% of holding+7.8%−11.3%165,564Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-29KAPPLER ANN MofficerSale4,000 @ $109.65$439K−15.7% of holding−9.0%−13.6%21,506Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

288 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-10CASELLAS GILBERT FdirectorAward / grant51343,957Form 4
2026-09-10HUNDMEJEAN MARTINAdirectorAward / grant33628,783Form 4
2026-09-10Pianalto SandradirectorAward / grant21418,394Form 4
2026-09-10HUNDMEJEAN MARTINAdirectorAward / grant18015,434Form 4
2026-09-10POON CHRISTINE AdirectorAward / grant16113,840Form 4
2026-09-10TODMAN MICHAELdirectorAward / grant15513,334Form 4
2026-09-10TODMAN MICHAELdirectorAward / grant15112,943Form 4
2026-09-10SULLIVAN ANDREW FdirectorAward / grant14312,559Form 4
2026-09-10Jones Wendy ElizabethdirectorAward / grant1159,895Form 4
2026-09-10Pianalto SandradirectorAward / grant847,227Form 4
2026-09-10POON CHRISTINE AdirectorAward / grant494,248Form 4
2026-09-10Di Sibio CarminedirectorAward / grant373,236Form 4
2026-09-10POON CHRISTINE AdirectorAward / grant211,798Form 4
2026-09-10Wolk Joseph JdirectorAward / grant211,798Form 4
2026-09-10Mannen Maryann T.directorAward / grant211,798Form 4
2026-09-10Jones Wendy ElizabethdirectorAward / grant211,798Form 4
2026-09-10Jones Wendy ElizabethdirectorAward / grant211,809Form 4
2026-09-10Wolk Joseph JdirectorAward / grant211,826Form 4
2026-09-10TODMAN MICHAELdirectorAward / grant211,798Form 4
2026-09-10HUNDMEJEAN MARTINAdirectorAward / grant211,798Form 4
2026-09-10Pianalto SandradirectorAward / grant211,798Form 4
2026-09-10Stoddard Thomas DdirectorAward / grant211,798Form 4
2026-09-10Di Sibio CarminedirectorAward / grant211,798Form 4
2026-09-10CASELLAS GILBERT FdirectorAward / grant211,798Form 4
2026-09-10Stoddard Thomas DdirectorAward / grant201,783Form 4
2026-08-31Boyle Robert EofficerWithheld for tax1155,972Form 4
2026-08-31Boyle Robert EofficerOption exercise3530Form 4
2026-08-31Boyle Robert EofficerOption exercise3536,087Form 4
2026-06-11CASELLAS GILBERT FdirectorAward / grant56343,444Form 4
2026-06-11HUNDMEJEAN MARTINAdirectorAward / grant36928,447Form 4
2026-06-11Pianalto SandradirectorAward / grant23618,179Form 4
2026-06-11HUNDMEJEAN MARTINAdirectorAward / grant19715,254Form 4
2026-06-11POON CHRISTINE AdirectorAward / grant17713,679Form 4
2026-06-11TODMAN MICHAELdirectorAward / grant17013,179Form 4
2026-06-11TODMAN MICHAELdirectorAward / grant16512,792Form 4
2026-06-11SULLIVAN ANDREW FdirectorAward / grant15812,415Form 4
2026-06-11Jones Wendy ElizabethdirectorAward / grant1269,779Form 4
2026-06-11Pianalto SandradirectorAward / grant927,142Form 4
2026-06-11POON CHRISTINE AdirectorAward / grant544,198Form 4
2026-06-11Di Sibio CarminedirectorAward / grant413,198Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatesale2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-15$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-06-092026-05-01$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-05-112026-04-24$1–15K
Lloyd K. SmuckerHousesale2026-04-302026-04-23$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-04-072026-03-23$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-03-092026-02-24$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousesale2026-03-092026-02-10$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2026-02-132026-01-09$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-12-082025-11-03$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-10-032025-09-29$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-08-072025-07-25$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-08-072025-07-25$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-07-092025-06-23$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.