Issued 2026-09-16 at $48.91 · now $48.91 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, PRSU has typically landed between $43.19 and $57.26 — a range of −11.7% to +17.1% from the issuance price $48.91.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
409 overlapping 1 month windows · 2024-12-27 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($48.91) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where PRSU has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $48.91 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $48.91 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $49.14 (+0.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $46.06–$52.21
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $43.19–$57.26
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2025-03-20 | −23.0% | −23.0% | +0.2% |
| 2025-03-10 | −21.4% | −21.4% | +4.0% |
| 2025-03-27 | −21.2% | −22.7% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-08-01 | +32.0% | −0.3% | +32.0% |
| 2025-08-04 | +31.6% | +0.0% | +32.4% |
| 2025-08-05 | +28.6% | +0.0% | +29.3% |
409 overlapping windows · 2024-12-27 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~2 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-17 | BARRY DAVID W | director | Purchase | 755 @ $33.39 | $25K | +0.7% of holding | +11.5% | +23.2% | 110,430 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | BARRY DAVID W | director | Purchase | 2,245 @ $33.32 | $75K | +2.1% of holding | +4.0% | +14.9% | 109,675 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | Schechter Joshua | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $34.00 | $34K | +1.8% of holding | +4.0% | +14.9% | 56,848 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-26 | Bright Jill | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $36.77 | $37K | +18.8% of holding | −2.9% | −12.2% | 6,311 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
43 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-16 | Bosco Michael Louis | officer | Withheld for tax | 906 | 7,462 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Archiopoli Michael Brent | officer | Award / grant | 1,207 | 4,316 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | BARRY DAVID W | director | Withheld for tax | 2,391 | 133,322 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Auck Samuel Andrew | officer | Withheld for tax | 337 | 17,707 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Henkels Virginia | director | Gift | 3,149 | 3,596 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Henkels Virginia | director | Gift | 3,149 | 24,243 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Coll Denise M | director | Award / grant | 3,596 | 22,658 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Crestview Partners IV GP, L.P. | director | Award / grant | 3,596 | 30,490 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Schechter Joshua | director | Award / grant | 3,596 | 60,444 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Bosco Michael Louis | officer | Award / grant | 2,157 | 8,368 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Carmichael Beverly K | director | Award / grant | 3,596 | 18,782 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Bright Jill | director | Award / grant | 3,596 | 9,907 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Auck Samuel Andrew | officer | Award / grant | 4,315 | 18,044 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | BARRY DAVID W | director | Award / grant | 27,617 | 135,713 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Heitz Michael John | officer | Award / grant | 4,315 | 12,393 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Henkels Virginia | director | Award / grant | 3,596 | 6,745 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-19 | Heitz Michael John | officer | Withheld for tax | 636 | 8,078 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | BARRY DAVID W | director | Withheld for tax | 2,334 | 108,096 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Heitz Michael John | officer | Withheld for tax | 414 | 8,714 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-05 | Auck Samuel Andrew | officer | Withheld for tax | 362 | 13,729 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-30 | Auck Samuel Andrew | officer | Withheld for tax | 405 | 14,091 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-24 | Tang Catherine | officer | Award / grant | 6,624 | 6,624 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-01 | BARRY DAVID W | director | Withheld for tax | 2,507 | 107,430 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-01 | INGERSOLL ELLEN M | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,411 | 11,489 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-01 | STRIEDEL LESLIE S | officer | Withheld for tax | 564 | 26,016 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-01 | Carmichael Beverly K | director | Award / grant | 3,149 | 15,186 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-01 | Bright Jill | director | Award / grant | 3,149 | 5,311 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-01 | Henkels Virginia | director | Award / grant | 3,149 | 6,525 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-01 | Henkels Virginia | director | Gift | 3,376 | 3,149 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-01 | Henkels Virginia | director | Gift | 3,376 | 21,094 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-01 | Schechter Joshua | director | Award / grant | 3,149 | 55,848 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-01 | Auck Samuel Andrew | officer | Award / grant | 2,928 | 14,496 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-01 | Coll Denise M | director | Award / grant | 3,149 | 19,062 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-01 | Crestview Partners IV GP, L.P. | director | Award / grant | 3,149 | 26,894 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-01 | INGERSOLL ELLEN M | officer | Gift | 3,371 | 8,118 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-01 | INGERSOLL ELLEN M | officer | Gift | 3,371 | 121,290 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-23 | INGERSOLL ELLEN M | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,189 | 15,258 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-23 | STRIEDEL LESLIE S | officer | Withheld for tax | 724 | 26,580 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-23 | INGERSOLL ELLEN M | officer | Gift | 1,358 | 117,919 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-23 | INGERSOLL ELLEN M | officer | Gift | 1,358 | 13,900 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.