Issued 2026-09-16 at $41.85 · now $41.85 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, PRGS has typically landed between $36.44 and $47.44 — a range of −12.9% to +13.4% from the issuance price $41.85.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($41.85) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where PRGS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $41.85 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $41.85 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $41.99 (+0.3%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $39.81–$44.16
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $36.44–$47.44
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-03-03 | −35.5% | −35.5% | +2.1% |
| 2026-02-26 | −34.3% | −35.1% | +0.0% |
| 2026-03-02 | −33.5% | −33.5% | +3.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-06-22 | +37.1% | +0.0% | +46.6% |
| 2012-01-04 | +34.3% | +0.0% | +34.3% |
| 2009-03-25 | +33.3% | +0.0% | +33.3% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | FOLGER ANTHONY | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $44.80 | $90K | −4.1% of holding | +2.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 47,381 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-29 | Jarrett Loren | officer | Sale | 9,963 @ $41.63 | $415K | −45.3% of holding | +0.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 12,053 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-29 | Jarrett Loren | officer | Sale | 1,784 @ $41.49 | $74K | −14.8% of holding | +0.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,269 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Subramanian Sundar | officer | Sale | 10,597 @ $38.27 | $406K | −36.6% of holding | +3.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 18,370 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-19 | FOLGER ANTHONY | director | Sale | 4,074 @ $29.05 | $118K | −7.6% of holding | +0.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 49,202 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-19 | FOLGER ANTHONY | director | Sale | 400 @ $29.96 | $12K | −0.8% of holding | +0.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 48,802 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | WANG YUFAN STEPHANIE | officer | Sale | 3,519 @ $29.04 | $102K | −58.0% of holding | +2.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,544 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | WANG YUFAN STEPHANIE | officer | Sale | 1,500 @ $28.44 | $43K | −19.8% of holding | +2.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,063 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-11 | Subramanian Sundar | officer | Sale | 1,600 @ $38.28 | $61K | −9.3% of holding | −27.6% | −1.2% | 15,542 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | Subramanian Sundar | officer | Sale | 16,427 @ $37.48 | $616K | −44.2% of holding | −27.5% | −4.2% | 20,709 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | Subramanian Sundar | officer | Sale | 5,167 @ $38.19 | $197K | −25.0% of holding | −27.5% | −4.2% | 15,542 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-03 | FOLGER ANTHONY | director | Sale | 5,184 @ $39.88 | $207K | −9.5% of holding | +0.3% | −6.7% | 49,618 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-03 | FOLGER ANTHONY | director | Sale | 816 @ $40.78 | $33K | −1.6% of holding | +0.3% | −6.7% | 48,802 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-26 | Subramanian Sundar | officer | Sale | 1,352 @ $42.37 | $57K | −4.4% of holding | −4.4% | −13.4% | 29,066 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-06 | Pitt Ian | officer | Sale | 409 @ $46.20 | $19K | −5.3% of holding | −10.2% | −39.6% | 7,368 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-03 | FOLGER ANTHONY | director | Sale | 5,374 @ $46.45 | $250K | −11.2% of holding | −9.7% | −36.2% | 42,659 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-03 | WANG YUFAN STEPHANIE | officer | Sale | 1,428 @ $46.26 | $66K | −68.1% of holding | −9.7% | −36.2% | 668 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-03 | FOLGER ANTHONY | director | Sale | 100 @ $47.32 | $5K | −0.2% of holding | −9.7% | −36.2% | 42,559 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-12 | Gawlick Rainer | director | Purchase | 1,710 @ $43.48 | $74K | +3.2% of holding | −5.3% | −15.9% | 55,544 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-23 | KRALL DAVID | director | Purchase | 5,125 @ $48.90 | $251K | +5.4% of holding | −9.8% | −22.8% | 100,090 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-23 | Gupta Yogesh K | director | Purchase | 2,100 @ $49.14 | $103K | +0.9% of holding | −9.8% | −22.8% | 232,396 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-08 | FOLGER ANTHONY | director | Sale | 3,718 @ $52.78 | $196K | −7.6% of holding | −17.8% | −33.4% | 45,370 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-08 | FOLGER ANTHONY | director | Sale | 1,811 @ $53.36 | $97K | −4.0% of holding | −17.8% | −33.4% | 43,559 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-01 | Subramanian Sundar | officer | Sale | 501 @ $60.30 | $30K | −1.7% of holding | −15.7% | −33.6% | 28,169 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-30 | Pitt Ian | officer | Sale | 2,186 @ $65.21 | $143K | −25.1% of holding | −25.7% | −43.7% | 6,513 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-09 | Jarrett Loren | officer | Sale | 19,231 @ $61.10 | $1.2M | −58.9% of holding | −0.7% | −50.1% | 13,413 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-09 | Jarrett Loren | officer | Sale | 13,196 @ $61.10 | $806K | −49.6% of holding | −0.7% | −50.1% | 13,413 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-09 | Jarrett Loren | officer | Sale | 1,666 @ $61.10 | $102K | −12.4% of holding | −0.7% | −50.1% | 11,747 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-24 | WANG YUFAN STEPHANIE | officer | Sale | 1,428 @ $58.27 | $83K | −100.0% of holding | −2.5% | −47.3% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-04 | Pitt Ian | officer | Sale | 703 @ $56.29 | $40K | −7.8% of holding | −2.5% | −50.6% | 8,317 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-01 | LoCoco Domenic | officer | Sale | 7,185 @ $57.12 | $410K | −55.5% of holding | +4.5% | −41.6% | 5,762 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
269 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-02 | VITALE VIVIAN M | director | Award / grant | 5,857 | 36,224 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-02 | DACIER PAUL T | director | Award / grant | 5,857 | 58,691 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-02 | Tucci Angela | director | Award / grant | 5,857 | 51,116 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-02 | EGAN JOHN R | director | Award / grant | 5,857 | 57,174 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-02 | Kane Charles Francis | director | Award / grant | 5,857 | 76,291 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-02 | King Samskriti | director | Award / grant | 5,857 | 51,116 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-02 | KRALL DAVID | director | Award / grant | 5,857 | 105,947 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-02 | Gawlick Rainer | director | Award / grant | 5,857 | 61,401 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Subramanian Sundar | officer | Option exercise | 10,597 | 28,967 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Subramanian Sundar | officer | Option exercise | 10,597 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Gupta Yogesh K | director | Withheld for tax | 4,021 | 286,198 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Gupta Yogesh K | director | Withheld for tax | 3,554 | 281,904 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Gupta Yogesh K | director | Withheld for tax | 3,293 | 278,109 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | FOLGER ANTHONY | director | Withheld for tax | 1,353 | 53,276 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | FOLGER ANTHONY | director | Withheld for tax | 1,122 | 50,209 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | FOLGER ANTHONY | director | Withheld for tax | 1,093 | 51,580 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Subramanian Sundar | officer | Withheld for tax | 758 | 17,791 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Ainsworth John | officer | Withheld for tax | 758 | 58,124 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Jarrett Loren | officer | Withheld for tax | 724 | 22,016 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | WANG YUFAN STEPHANIE | officer | Withheld for tax | 545 | 7,563 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Subramanian Sundar | officer | Withheld for tax | 519 | 16,191 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Ainsworth John | officer | Withheld for tax | 519 | 56,524 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Ainsworth John | officer | Withheld for tax | 518 | 57,173 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Subramanian Sundar | officer | Withheld for tax | 518 | 16,840 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Jarrett Loren | officer | Withheld for tax | 495 | 21,031 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Jarrett Loren | officer | Withheld for tax | 495 | 20,359 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | WANG YUFAN STEPHANIE | officer | Withheld for tax | 486 | 6,340 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | WANG YUFAN STEPHANIE | officer | Withheld for tax | 471 | 6,907 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | LoCoco Domenic | officer | Withheld for tax | 272 | 9,857 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | LoCoco Domenic | officer | Withheld for tax | 261 | 8,635 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | LoCoco Domenic | officer | Withheld for tax | 237 | 9,205 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Gupta Yogesh K | director | Option exercise | 8,315 | 33,260 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Ainsworth John | officer | Option exercise | 1,168 | 57,043 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Ainsworth John | officer | Option exercise | 1,709 | 58,882 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | LoCoco Domenic | officer | Option exercise | 886 | 8,896 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | LoCoco Domenic | officer | Option exercise | 807 | 9,442 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | LoCoco Domenic | officer | Option exercise | 924 | 10,129 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | LoCoco Domenic | officer | Option exercise | 886 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | LoCoco Domenic | officer | Option exercise | 807 | 1,614 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | LoCoco Domenic | officer | Option exercise | 924 | 3,696 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.