Issued 2026-09-16 at $15.89 · now $15.89 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, PRCH has typically landed between $9.60 and $26.11 — a range of −39.6% to +64.3% from the issuance price $15.89.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,654 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-01-13 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($15.89) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where PRCH has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $15.89 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $15.89 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $15.71 (-1.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $12.29–$19.14
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $9.6–$26.11
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,654 windows spanning 2020-01-13 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2023-02-16 | −67.4% | −67.4% | +0.0% |
| 2023-02-15 | −67.0% | −67.0% | +0.0% |
| 2023-02-21 | −61.5% | −65.2% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2023-11-01 | +205.0% | +0.0% | +205.0% |
| 2023-11-07 | +204.7% | +0.0% | +204.7% |
| 2023-11-06 | +200.0% | +0.0% | +200.0% |
1,654 overlapping windows · 2020-01-13 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~7 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
33%
−3.1%
n=6
Feb
71%
+12.5%
n=7
Mar
29%
−6.0%
n=7
Apr
29%
−17.0%
n=7
May
86%
+18.1%
n=7
Jun
57%
+3.2%
n=7
Jul
43%
+1.4%
n=7
Aug
71%
+0.8%
n=7
Sep
43%
−0.9%
n=7
Oct
33%
−4.9%
n=6
Nov
83%
+43.3%
n=6
Dec
50%
+21.8%
n=6
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Neagle Matthew | officer | Sale | 50,000 @ $16.46 | $823K | −2.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,940,705 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Reierson Amanda L | director | Sale | 33,135 @ $16.46 | $545K | −19.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 134,180 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Tabak Shawn | officer | Sale | 25,000 @ $16.21 | $405K | −10.4% of holding | +14.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 215,495 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | Tabak Shawn | officer | Sale | 25,000 @ $16.13 | $403K | −9.4% of holding | +4.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 240,495 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Tabak Shawn | officer | Sale | 3,944 @ $10.87 | $43K | −1.5% of holding | +41.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 265,495 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Tabak Shawn | officer | Sale | 30,000 @ $10.08 | $303K | −10.0% of holding | +28.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 269,439 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | Ehrlichman Matt | director | Sale | 120,368 @ $9.78 | $1.2M | −0.7% of holding | +25.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,972,080 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | Neagle Matthew | officer | Sale | 62,344 @ $9.78 | $609K | −3.0% of holding | +25.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,990,705 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | Tabak Shawn | officer | Sale | 10,881 @ $9.78 | $106K | −3.5% of holding | +25.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 299,439 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Ehrlichman Matt | director | Sale | 115,805 @ $10.34 | $1.2M | −0.7% of holding | +14.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 16,092,448 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Neagle Matthew | officer | Sale | 59,983 @ $10.34 | $620K | −2.8% of holding | +14.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,053,049 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Tabak Shawn | officer | Sale | 10,467 @ $10.34 | $108K | −3.3% of holding | +14.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 310,320 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | Ehrlichman Matt | director | Sale | 122,881 @ $10.52 | $1.3M | −0.8% of holding | −5.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 16,208,253 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | Neagle Matthew | officer | Sale | 63,650 @ $10.52 | $670K | −2.9% of holding | −5.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,113,032 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | Tabak Shawn | officer | Sale | 11,107 @ $10.52 | $117K | −3.3% of holding | −5.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 320,787 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-08 | Ehrlichman Matt | director | Sale | 116,303 @ $11.12 | $1.3M | −0.7% of holding | −13.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 16,331,134 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-08 | Neagle Matthew | officer | Sale | 60,240 @ $11.12 | $670K | −2.7% of holding | −13.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,176,682 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-08 | Tabak Shawn | officer | Sale | 10,511 @ $11.12 | $117K | −3.1% of holding | −13.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 331,894 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Ehrlichman Matt | director | Sale | 117,385 @ $10.43 | $1.2M | −0.7% of holding | −18.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 16,447,437 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Neagle Matthew | officer | Sale | 60,802 @ $10.43 | $634K | −2.6% of holding | −18.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,236,922 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Tabak Shawn | officer | Sale | 10,610 @ $10.43 | $111K | −3.0% of holding | −18.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 342,405 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | Ehrlichman Matt | director | Sale | 124,089 @ $9.79 | $1.2M | −0.7% of holding | +0.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 16,564,822 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | Neagle Matthew | officer | Sale | 64,274 @ $9.79 | $629K | −2.7% of holding | +0.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,297,724 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-28 | Ehrlichman Matt | director | Sale | 115,642 @ $8.11 | $938K | −0.7% of holding | +14.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 16,688,911 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-28 | Neagle Matthew | officer | Sale | 59,901 @ $8.11 | $486K | −2.5% of holding | +14.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,361,998 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-28 | Tabak Shawn | officer | Sale | 10,454 @ $8.11 | $85K | −2.8% of holding | +14.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 364,230 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-24 | Ehrlichman Matt | director | Sale | 123,518 @ $7.68 | $949K | −0.7% of holding | +24.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 16,804,553 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-24 | Neagle Matthew | officer | Sale | 63,979 @ $7.68 | $491K | −2.6% of holding | +24.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,421,899 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-24 | Tabak Shawn | officer | Sale | 7,875 @ $7.68 | $60K | −2.1% of holding | +24.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 374,684 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-21 | Ehrlichman Matt | director | Sale | 121,242 @ $8.12 | $984K | −0.7% of holding | +17.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 16,928,071 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-21 | Neagle Matthew | officer | Sale | 62,801 @ $8.12 | $510K | −2.5% of holding | +17.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,485,878 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-21 | Tabak Shawn | officer | Sale | 7,730 @ $8.12 | $63K | −2.0% of holding | +17.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 382,559 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-17 | Ehrlichman Matt | director | Sale | 113,862 @ $7.87 | $896K | −0.7% of holding | +17.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,049,313 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-17 | Neagle Matthew | officer | Sale | 58,978 @ $7.87 | $464K | −2.3% of holding | +17.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,548,679 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-17 | Tabak Shawn | officer | Sale | 8,367 @ $7.87 | $66K | −2.1% of holding | +17.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 390,289 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-14 | Ehrlichman Matt | director | Sale | 117,149 @ $6.84 | $802K | −0.7% of holding | +38.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,191,908 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-14 | Neagle Matthew | officer | Sale | 60,681 @ $6.84 | $415K | −2.3% of holding | +38.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,630,575 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-14 | Ehrlichman Matt | director | Sale | 28,733 @ $6.84 | $197K | −0.2% of holding | +38.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,163,175 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-14 | Neagle Matthew | officer | Sale | 22,918 @ $6.84 | $157K | −0.9% of holding | +38.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,607,657 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-14 | Tabak Shawn | officer | Sale | 10,227 @ $6.84 | $70K | −2.5% of holding | +38.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 398,656 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-14 | Tabak Shawn | officer | Sale | 7,470 @ $6.84 | $51K | −1.8% of holding | +38.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 408,883 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-09 | Ehrlichman Matt | director | Sale | 121,293 @ $7.15 | $867K | −0.7% of holding | +47.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,309,057 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-09 | Neagle Matthew | officer | Sale | 62,827 @ $7.15 | $449K | −2.3% of holding | +47.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,691,256 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-09 | Tabak Shawn | officer | Sale | 7,734 @ $7.15 | $55K | −1.8% of holding | +47.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 416,353 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-07 | Ehrlichman Matt | director | Sale | 27,188 @ $7.19 | $195K | −0.2% of holding | +39.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,430,350 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-07 | Ehrlichman Matt | director | Sale | 24,996 @ $7.19 | $180K | −0.1% of holding | +39.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,457,538 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-07 | Ehrlichman Matt | director | Sale | 18,983 @ $7.19 | $136K | −0.1% of holding | +39.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,482,534 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-07 | Neagle Matthew | officer | Sale | 10,359 @ $7.19 | $74K | −0.4% of holding | +39.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,762,784 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-07 | Neagle Matthew | officer | Sale | 9,765 @ $7.19 | $70K | −0.4% of holding | +39.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,773,143 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-07 | Neagle Matthew | officer | Sale | 8,701 @ $7.19 | $63K | −0.3% of holding | +39.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,754,083 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-07 | Tabak Shawn | officer | Sale | 4,444 @ $7.19 | $32K | −1.0% of holding | +39.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 428,987 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-07 | Tabak Shawn | officer | Sale | 2,969 @ $7.19 | $21K | −0.7% of holding | +39.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 424,087 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-07 | Tabak Shawn | officer | Sale | 1,931 @ $7.19 | $14K | −0.5% of holding | +39.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 427,056 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-02 | Neagle Matthew | officer | Sale | 8,446 @ $6.98 | $59K | −0.3% of holding | +28.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,626,286 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-02 | Ehrlichman Matt | director | Sale | 6,988 @ $6.98 | $49K | −0.0% of holding | +28.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,203,688 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-15 | Tabak Shawn | officer | Sale | 24,294 @ $9.66 | $235K | −17.1% of holding | −4.4% | +22.1% | 118,130 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-11 | Tabak Shawn | officer | Sale | 10,706 @ $9.99 | $107K | −7.0% of holding | −13.2% | −9.9% | 142,424 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-04 | Tabak Shawn | officer | Sale | 22,216 @ $9.52 | $211K | −12.7% of holding | −4.9% | −9.8% | 153,130 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-12 | Reierson Amanda L | director | Sale | 50,000 @ $17.67 | $883K | −24.8% of holding | −14.8% | −57.4% | 151,375 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-09 | Neagle Matthew | officer | Sale | 55,000 @ $18.69 | $1.0M | −5.2% of holding | −21.5% | −64.1% | 999,784 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
71 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2028-03-19 | Ehrlichman Matt | director | Award / grant | 1,748,472 | 15,462,200 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Reierson Amanda L | director | Award / grant | 15,940 | 167,315 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Lam Rachel | director | Award / grant | 15,940 | 193,931 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Pickerill Alan R | director | Award / grant | 15,940 | 198,356 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Vengalil Regi | director | Award / grant | 15,940 | 181,843 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | TULLOCH MAURICE | director | Award / grant | 15,940 | 141,706 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Velasquez Camilla | director | Award / grant | 15,940 | 219,291 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Kell Sean Davis | director | Award / grant | 15,940 | 313,647 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Ehrlichman Matt | director | Award / grant | 71,474 | 17,501,517 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Tabak Shawn | officer | Award / grant | 39,027 | 405,123 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Neagle Matthew | officer | Award / grant | 52,030 | 2,782,908 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Neagle Matthew | officer | Award / grant | 104,592 | 2,730,878 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Tabak Shawn | officer | Award / grant | 28,308 | 433,431 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Ehrlichman Matt | director | Award / grant | 226,355 | 17,430,043 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-19 | Neagle Matthew | officer | Option exercise | 826,554 | 2,634,732 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-19 | Tabak Shawn | officer | Award / grant | 123,980 | 242,110 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-19 | Tabak Shawn | officer | Option exercise | 123,986 | 366,096 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-19 | Tabak Shawn | officer | Option exercise | 123,986 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-19 | Ehrlichman Matt | director | Option exercise | 1,748,476 | 17,210,676 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-19 | Ehrlichman Matt | director | Option exercise | 1,748,476 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-19 | Neagle Matthew | officer | Award / grant | 826,548 | 1,808,178 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-19 | Neagle Matthew | officer | Option exercise | 826,554 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-01 | Tabak Shawn | officer | Award / grant | 15,259 | 175,346 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-05 | Ehrlichman Matt | director | Withheld for tax | 29,091 | 13,739,717 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-05 | Ehrlichman Matt | director | Withheld for tax | 25,989 | 13,713,728 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-05 | Neagle Matthew | officer | Withheld for tax | 15,068 | 994,286 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-05 | Neagle Matthew | officer | Withheld for tax | 12,656 | 981,630 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-05 | Tabak Shawn | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,829 | 160,087 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-05 | Tabak Shawn | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,241 | 162,916 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-01 | Neagle Matthew | officer | Withheld for tax | 11,548 | 1,009,354 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-01 | Ehrlichman Matt | director | Withheld for tax | 10,540 | 13,768,808 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-10 | Neagle Matthew | officer | Option exercise | 7,674 | 1,020,359 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-10 | Neagle Matthew | officer | Option exercise | 7,045 | 1,012,685 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-10 | Neagle Matthew | officer | Option exercise | 4,578 | 1,005,640 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-10 | Neagle Matthew | officer | Option exercise | 1,278 | 1,001,062 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-10 | Neagle Matthew | officer | Option exercise | 291 | 1,020,902 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-10 | Neagle Matthew | officer | Option exercise | 252 | 1,020,611 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-10 | Neagle Matthew | officer | Option exercise | 1,278 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-10 | Neagle Matthew | officer | Option exercise | 4,578 | 1,291 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-10 | Neagle Matthew | officer | Option exercise | 7,045 | 0 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.