PRAA · TickerCove

PRAAPRA Group, Inc.Financial Services · Financial - Credit Servicesas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $20.07 · now $20.07 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, PRAA has typically landed between $15.91 and $24.53 — a range of −20.7% to +22.2% from the issuance price $20.07.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($20.07) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$20.07 · 82% of range

$10.42 low$22.23 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−0.9%

typical move · IQR 15.7%

−20.7%worst (p90)+22.2%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where PRAA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $20.07 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $20.07 (+0.0%)
typical $19.89 (-0.9%)
middle 50% $18.31–$21.46
90% range $15.91–$24.53

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2023-04-13	−53.3%	−53.3%	+0.0%
2023-04-17	−51.8%	−52.9%	+0.0%
2023-04-19	−51.2%	−51.7%	+0.0%
3 best
2026-02-23	+70.9%	+0.0%	+81.0%
2026-02-20	+70.5%	−3.3%	+75.0%
2026-02-24	+64.8%	+0.0%	+74.3%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

35%

−4.9%

n=20

Feb

80%

+5.5%

n=20

Mar

70%

+1.5%

n=20

Apr

55%

+3.9%

n=20

May

50%

−3.4%

n=20

Jun

60%

+4.8%

n=20

Jul

70%

+4.1%

n=20

Aug

45%

−0.6%

n=20

Sep

45%

−0.7%

n=20

Oct

50%

−4.2%

n=20

Nov

40%

+3.7%

n=20

Dec

40%

+2.1%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2025-11-06	Olsen Geir	director	Purchase	15,000 @ $14.15	$212K	+34.1% of holding	+25.0%	+14.6%	58,933	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-07	Olsen Geir	director	Purchase	18,230 @ $13.59	$248K	+70.9% of holding	+3.8%	−19.3%	43,933	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-07	Paschke Brett Lee	director	Purchase	5,000 @ $13.39	$67K	+20.0% of holding	+3.8%	−19.3%	30,056	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

92 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-10	WEAVER LANCE L	director	Gift	5,370	15,914	Form 4
2026-09-10	WEAVER LANCE L	director	Gift	5,371	10,543	Form 4
2026-08-15	Tarrant LaTisha Owens	officer	Withheld for tax	3,342	102,346	Form 4
2026-08-15	James Richard Owen	officer	Withheld for tax	1,844	93,426	Form 4
2026-06-17	Sjolund Martin	director	Withheld for tax	9,772	263,586	Form 4
2026-06-17	James Richard Owen	officer	Withheld for tax	1,086	95,270	Form 4
2026-06-16	Olsen Geir	director	Withheld for tax	3,223	28,228	Form 4
2026-06-16	Gadhia Jayne-Anne	director	Withheld for tax	3,223	23,387	Form 4
2026-06-16	TABAKIN SCOTT M	director	Award / grant	10,543	108,542	Form 4
2026-06-16	WEAVER LANCE L	director	Award / grant	10,543	21,284	Form 4
2026-06-16	Connelly Marjorie Mary	director	Award / grant	10,543	65,160	Form 4
2026-06-16	Gadhia Jayne-Anne	director	Award / grant	10,543	26,610	Form 4
2026-06-16	Olsen Geir	director	Award / grant	10,543	31,451	Form 4
2026-06-16	Paschke Brett Lee	director	Award / grant	10,543	51,340	Form 4
2026-06-16	Butler Adrian M	director	Award / grant	10,543	24,657	Form 4
2026-03-09	Sjolund Martin	director	Withheld for tax	5,514	273,358	Form 4
2026-03-09	Sehgal Rakesh	officer	Withheld for tax	5,098	81,349	Form 4
2026-03-09	Tarrant LaTisha Owens	officer	Withheld for tax	4,157	106,524	Form 4
2026-03-09	James Richard Owen	officer	Withheld for tax	3,939	96,356	Form 4
2026-03-09	Sjolund Martin	director	Withheld for tax	3,869	280,729	Form 4
2026-03-09	Tarrant LaTisha Owens	officer	Withheld for tax	3,055	112,463	Form 4
2026-03-09	Sehgal Rakesh	officer	Withheld for tax	3,035	88,632	Form 4
2026-03-09	James Richard Owen	officer	Withheld for tax	2,476	102,152	Form 4
2026-03-09	Sjolund Martin	director	Withheld for tax	2,338	286,298	Form 4
2026-03-09	Sehgal Rakesh	officer	Withheld for tax	2,185	86,447	Form 4
2026-03-09	Sjolund Martin	director	Withheld for tax	1,857	278,872	Form 4
2026-03-09	James Richard Owen	officer	Withheld for tax	1,857	100,295	Form 4
2026-03-09	Tarrant LaTisha Owens	officer	Withheld for tax	1,782	110,681	Form 4
2026-03-09	Sjolund Martin	director	Withheld for tax	1,700	284,598	Form 4
2026-03-09	Sehgal Rakesh	officer	Withheld for tax	837	80,512	Form 4
2026-03-09	Tarrant LaTisha Owens	officer	Withheld for tax	836	105,688	Form 4
2026-03-09	Sehgal Rakesh	officer	Withheld for tax	610	91,667	Form 4
2026-03-09	Tarrant LaTisha Owens	officer	Withheld for tax	608	115,518	Form 4
2026-03-09	James Richard Owen	officer	Withheld for tax	584	105,054	Form 4
2026-03-09	James Richard Owen	officer	Withheld for tax	426	104,628	Form 4
2026-03-09	Tarrant LaTisha Owens	officer	Award / grant	30,303	108,959	Form 4
2026-03-09	Tarrant LaTisha Owens	officer	Award / grant	1,658	110,617	Form 4
2026-03-09	Tarrant LaTisha Owens	officer	Award / grant	5,509	116,126	Form 4
2026-03-09	Sehgal Rakesh	officer	Award / grant	30,303	85,387	Form 4
2026-03-09	Sehgal Rakesh	officer	Award / grant	1,381	86,768	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i