PPTAPerpetua Resources Corp.Basic Materials · Other Precious Metalsas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $22.51 · now $22.51 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, PPTA has typically landed between $17.04 and $31.62 — a range of −24.3% to +40.5% from the issuance price $22.51.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

1,380 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-02-18 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($22.51) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where PPTA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $22.51 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$17.04worst · -24.3%$31.62best · +40.5%
  • now $22.51 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $22.87 (+1.6%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $19.73–$26.01
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $17.04–$31.62
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,380 windows spanning 2021-02-18 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2025-01-24−35.4%−36.4%+0.0%
2021-06-24−35.2%−35.2%+0.0%
2022-09-09−35.1%−35.1%+0.0%
3 best
2022-12-16+88.8%+0.0%+88.8%
2022-12-15+86.3%−1.1%+86.3%
2022-12-14+84.6%+0.0%+84.6%

1,380 overlapping windows · 2021-02-18 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
60%
+2.0%
n=5
Feb
60%
+2.1%
n=5
Mar
67%
+12.9%
n=6
Apr
67%
+14.7%
n=6
May
33%
+2.0%
n=6
Jun
0%
−15.0%
n=6
Jul
50%
+1.3%
n=6
Aug
50%
+10.3%
n=6
Sep
33%
−3.7%
n=6
Oct
80%
+10.2%
n=5
Nov
40%
−3.3%
n=5
Dec
60%
+7.9%
n=5

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$37$162026-04-02: 3 insider sales, $376K — Lyon Mckinsey Margaret, Cherry Jonathan …2026-02-12: 2 insider sales, $1.2M — Lyon Mckinsey Margaret …2026-01-07: 1 insider sale, $87K — Sternhell Alexander McLeod2026-01-06: 3 insider sales, $291K — Malmen Jeffrey L, Robison Chris J, Dean Robert Alan2026-01-05: 5 insider sales, $1.8M — Lyon Mckinsey Margaret, Sternhell Alexander McLeod, Malmen Jeffrey L, Robison Chris J …2025-12-24: 1 insider sale, $132K — Dean Robert Alan2025-12-23: 1 insider sale, $179K — Dean Robert Alan2025-10-06: 1 insider sale, $354K — Cherry Jonathan2025-09-02: 1 insider sale, $183K — Wright Michael Stephen2025-09: 1 open-market sale, $183K2025-10: 1 open-market sale, $354K2025-12: 2 open-market sales, $310K2026-01: 9 open-market sales, $2.1M2026-02: 2 open-market sales, $1.2M2026-04: 3 open-market sales, $376K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Lyon Mckinsey Margaret — Sale on 2026-04-02, filed same daydirector Cherry Jonathan — Sale on 2026-04-02, filed same dayofficer Lyon Mckinsey Margaret — Sale on 2026-04-02, filed same dayofficer Lyon Mckinsey Margaret — Sale on 2026-02-12, filed 5 days after the tradeofficer Lyon Mckinsey Margaret — Sale on 2026-02-12, filed 5 days after the tradedirector Sternhell Alexander McLeod — Sale on 2026-01-07, filed same daydirector Malmen Jeffrey L — Sale on 2026-01-06, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Robison Chris J — Sale on 2026-01-06, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Dean Robert Alan — Sale on 2026-01-06, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Lyon Mckinsey Margaret — Sale on 2026-01-05, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Sternhell Alexander McLeod — Sale on 2026-01-05, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Malmen Jeffrey L — Sale on 2026-01-05, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Robison Chris J — Sale on 2026-01-05, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Dean Robert Alan — Sale on 2026-01-05, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Dean Robert Alan — Sale on 2025-12-24, filed 5 days after the tradedirector Dean Robert Alan — Sale on 2025-12-23, filed 6 days after the tradedirector Cherry Jonathan — Sale on 2025-10-06, filed same dayofficer Wright Michael Stephen — Sale on 2025-09-02, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-04-02Lyon Mckinsey MargaretofficerSale6,123 @ $29.62$181K−4.1% of holding−18.0%not yet — horizon still open144,905Form 4 · filed same day
2026-04-02Cherry JonathandirectorSale4,079 @ $29.31$120K−8.3% of holding−18.0%not yet — horizon still open44,895Form 4 · filed same day
2026-04-02Lyon Mckinsey MargaretofficerSale2,576 @ $29.31$76K−1.8% of holding−18.0%not yet — horizon still open142,329Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-12Lyon Mckinsey MargaretofficerSale37,452 @ $27.58$1.0M−22.1% of holding+14.7%−23.0%132,110Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-02-12Lyon Mckinsey MargaretofficerSale6,270 @ $27.54$173K−3.6% of holding+14.7%−23.0%169,562Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-01-07Sternhell Alexander McLeoddirectorSale3,000 @ $29.09$87K−15.5% of holding−3.5%−43.2%16,352Form 4 · filed same day
2026-01-06Malmen Jeffrey LdirectorSale5,000 @ $26.57$133K−25.9% of holding−5.5%−38.6%14,319Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-01-06Robison Chris JdirectorSale3,500 @ $26.57$93K−3.9% of holding−5.5%−38.6%85,799Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-01-06Dean Robert AlandirectorSale2,400 @ $27.14$65K−9.7% of holding−5.5%−38.6%22,302Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-01-05Lyon Mckinsey MargaretofficerSale32,490 @ $26.61$865K−25.2% of holding+8.0%−36.6%96,664Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-05Sternhell Alexander McLeoddirectorSale10,148 @ $26.50$269K−34.4% of holding+8.0%−36.6%19,352Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-05Malmen Jeffrey LdirectorSale10,181 @ $26.34$268K−34.5% of holding+8.0%−36.6%19,319Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-05Robison Chris JdirectorSale10,201 @ $26.24$268K−10.3% of holding+8.0%−36.6%89,299Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-05Dean Robert AlandirectorSale3,308 @ $26.28$87K−11.8% of holding+8.0%−36.6%24,702Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-24Dean Robert AlandirectorSale5,000 @ $26.31$132K−21.3% of holding+30.8%−30.3%18,510Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-12-23Dean Robert AlandirectorSale6,490 @ $27.55$179K−21.6% of holding+19.1%−29.5%23,510Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade
2025-10-06Cherry JonathandirectorSale14,911 @ $23.72$354K−29.1% of holding−10.2%+25.1%36,249Form 4 · filed same day
2025-09-02Wright Michael StephenofficerSale10,000 @ $18.31$183K−41.3% of holding+5.9%+75.4%14,195Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-16PAULSON & CO. INC.otherPurchase7,575,757 @ $13.20$100.0M+30.6% of holding+17.6%+92.9%32,347,299Form 4 · filed same day
2025-04-24Wright Michael StephenofficerSale6,500 @ $13.85$90K−31.4% of holding−9.2%+40.2%14,195Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-28Lyon Mckinsey MargaretofficerSale20,000 @ $11.00$220K−18.3% of holding+28.6%+68.0%89,154Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-05Largent Jessica MariedirectorSale21,567 @ $8.82$190K−10.6% of holding+29.4%+84.4%182,544Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-05Haslam Alan DouglasofficerSale19,721 @ $8.82$174K−14.3% of holding+29.4%+84.4%118,017Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-05Lyon Mckinsey MargaretofficerSale19,465 @ $8.82$172K−17.9% of holding+29.4%+84.4%89,154Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-05Largent Jessica MariedirectorSale3,595 @ $8.82$32K−1.7% of holding+29.4%+84.4%204,111Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-05Haslam Alan DouglasofficerSale3,287 @ $8.82$29K−2.3% of holding+29.4%+84.4%137,738Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-05Lyon Mckinsey MargaretofficerSale3,245 @ $8.82$29K−2.9% of holding+29.4%+84.4%108,619Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-26Haddock Richie DarrindirectorPurchase5,780 @ $8.56$49Kownership Δ n/a+34.2%+108.8%5,780Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-24Cole Andrew PhillipdirectorPurchase9,450 @ $7.99$76Kownership Δ n/a+42.8%+116.8%9,450Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-21Robison Chris JdirectorPurchase10,000 @ $8.43$84K+16.7% of holding+37.6%+104.1%70,000Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-02-21Dean Robert AlandirectorPurchase5,000 @ $8.32$42K+100.0% of holding+37.6%+104.1%10,000Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-02-21Cherry JonathandirectorPurchase1,160 @ $8.60$10Kownership Δ n/a+37.6%+104.1%1,160Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-02-20Largent Jessica MariedirectorSale11,737 @ $9.24$108K−8.8% of holding+28.7%+88.9%121,692Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-20Haslam Alan DouglasofficerSale10,400 @ $9.24$96K−13.7% of holding+28.7%+88.9%65,763Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-20Lyon Mckinsey MargaretofficerSale10,209 @ $9.24$94K−21.4% of holding+28.7%+88.9%37,580Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

147 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-06-25Dean Robert AlandirectorAward / grant1,00668,772Form 4
2026-06-25Malmen Jeffrey LdirectorAward / grant82860,256Form 4
2026-06-25Cole Andrew PhillipdirectorAward / grant82827,489Form 4
2026-06-25Haddock Richie DarrindirectorAward / grant82831,166Form 4
2026-06-25Sternhell Alexander McLeoddirectorAward / grant82859,568Form 4
2026-03-25Dean Robert AlandirectorAward / grant84367,766Form 4
2026-03-25Malmen Jeffrey LdirectorAward / grant69459,428Form 4
2026-03-25Haddock Richie DarrindirectorAward / grant69430,338Form 4
2026-03-25Cole Andrew PhillipdirectorAward / grant69426,661Form 4
2026-03-25Sternhell Alexander McLeoddirectorAward / grant69458,740Form 4
2026-03-16Fontaine Gregory AofficerAward / grant8,1978,197Form 4
2026-02-21Lyon Mckinsey MargaretofficerOption exercise5,28229,325Form 4
2026-02-21Cherry JonathandirectorOption exercise12,72547,088Form 4
2026-02-21Cherry JonathandirectorOption exercise12,72548,974Form 4
2026-02-21Lyon Mckinsey MargaretofficerOption exercise5,282151,028Form 4
2026-02-16Lyon Mckinsey MargaretofficerOption exercise13,63634,607Form 4
2026-02-16Lyon Mckinsey MargaretofficerOption exercise13,636145,746Form 4
2026-02-16Lyon Mckinsey MargaretofficerOption exercise13,636145,746Form 4
2026-02-11Malmen Jeffrey LdirectorAward / grant2,45958,734Form 4
2026-02-11Haddock Richie DarrindirectorAward / grant2,45929,644Form 4
2026-02-11Sternhell Alexander McLeoddirectorAward / grant2,45958,046Form 4
2026-02-11Robison Chris JdirectorAward / grant2,45972,038Form 4
2026-02-11Cole Andrew PhillipdirectorAward / grant2,45925,967Form 4
2026-02-11Dean Robert AlandirectorAward / grant2,45966,923Form 4
2026-02-11Dove LauradirectorAward / grant2,45953,119Form 4
2026-02-11Kahl Timothy CharlesofficerAward / grant5,53311,320Form 4
2026-02-11Cherry JonathandirectorAward / grant21,63959,813Form 4
2026-02-11Lyon Mckinsey MargaretofficerAward / grant67,858175,832Form 4
2026-02-11Lyon Mckinsey MargaretofficerAward / grant5,12348,243Form 4
2026-02-11Murchison Mark EofficerAward / grant9,83617,836Form 4
2026-02-11Norine James ArthurofficerAward / grant6,7626,762Form 4
2026-02-10Lyon Mckinsey MargaretofficerOption exercise11,31043,120Form 4
2026-02-10Lyon Mckinsey MargaretofficerOption exercise11,310107,974Form 4
2026-02-10Lyon Mckinsey MargaretofficerOption exercise11,310107,974Form 4
2026-01-05Lyon Mckinsey MargaretofficerExercise40,000129,154Form 4
2026-01-05Sternhell Alexander McLeoddirectorExercise20,00020,000Form 4
2026-01-05Robison Chris JdirectorExercise20,00090,000Form 4
2026-01-05Malmen Jeffrey LdirectorExercise20,00020,000Form 4
2026-01-05Sternhell Alexander McLeoddirectorExercise9,50029,500Form 4
2026-01-05Robison Chris JdirectorExercise9,50099,500Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.