Issued 2026-09-16 at $37.35 · now $37.35 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, PPLI has typically landed between $31.06 and $42.80 — a range of −16.9% to +14.6% from the issuance price $37.35.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($37.35) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where PPLI has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $37.35 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $37.35 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $36.83 (-1.4%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $34.18–$39.48
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $31.06–$42.8
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-20 | −44.0% | −44.0% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-21 | −42.2% | −42.7% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-18 | −41.2% | −41.2% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-03-23 | +67.6% | +0.0% | +69.8% |
| 2020-03-20 | +64.2% | +0.0% | +71.4% |
| 2020-03-18 | +60.6% | −6.1% | +60.6% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
68 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-16 | Clinton Chelsea | director | Award / grant | 5,490 | 5,490 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-16 | EISNER MICHAEL D | director | Award / grant | 5,490 | 5,490 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-16 | Hammer Bonnie S | director | Award / grant | 5,490 | 5,490 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-16 | Lourd Bryan | director | Award / grant | 5,490 | 5,490 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-16 | ROSENBLATT DAVID S | director | Award / grant | 5,490 | 5,490 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-16 | Seferian Maria | director | Award / grant | 5,490 | 5,490 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-16 | ZANNINO RICHARD F | director | Award / grant | 5,490 | 5,490 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-16 | SPOON ALAN G | director | Award / grant | 5,490 | 5,490 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-16 | Braham Tor | director | Award / grant | 5,490 | 5,490 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-16 | Von Furstenberg Alexander | director | Award / grant | 5,490 | 5,490 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Lourd Bryan | director | Award / grant | 352 | 204,250 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | EISNER MICHAEL D | director | Award / grant | 311 | 178,764 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Seferian Maria | director | Award / grant | 271 | 12,134 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Clinton Chelsea | director | Award / grant | 135 | 93,336 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | Clinton Chelsea | director | Option exercise | 2,263 | 4,528 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Braham Tor | director | Option exercise | 2,263 | 4,528 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Clinton Chelsea | director | Option exercise | 2,263 | 93,201 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Braham Tor | director | Option exercise | 2,263 | 17,263 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | EISNER MICHAEL D | director | Option exercise | 2,263 | 178,453 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | EISNER MICHAEL D | director | Option exercise | 2,263 | 4,528 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Hammer Bonnie S | director | Option exercise | 2,263 | 40,669 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Hammer Bonnie S | director | Option exercise | 2,263 | 4,528 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Lourd Bryan | director | Option exercise | 2,263 | 203,898 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Lourd Bryan | director | Option exercise | 2,263 | 4,528 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | ROSENBLATT DAVID S | director | Option exercise | 2,263 | 97,261 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | ROSENBLATT DAVID S | director | Option exercise | 2,263 | 4,528 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | ZANNINO RICHARD F | director | Option exercise | 2,263 | 64,435 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | ZANNINO RICHARD F | director | Option exercise | 2,263 | 4,528 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | SPOON ALAN G | director | Option exercise | 2,263 | 277,411 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | SPOON ALAN G | director | Option exercise | 2,263 | 4,528 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Seferian Maria | director | Option exercise | 2,263 | 11,863 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Seferian Maria | director | Option exercise | 2,263 | 4,528 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Von Furstenberg Alexander | director | Option exercise | 2,263 | 113,382 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Von Furstenberg Alexander | director | Option exercise | 2,263 | 4,528 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | ZANNINO RICHARD F | director | Option exercise | 1,609 | 62,172 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Clinton Chelsea | director | Option exercise | 1,609 | 90,938 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Clinton Chelsea | director | Option exercise | 1,609 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | EISNER MICHAEL D | director | Option exercise | 1,609 | 176,190 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | EISNER MICHAEL D | director | Option exercise | 1,609 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Hammer Bonnie S | director | Option exercise | 1,609 | 38,406 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.