PPLPPL CorporationUtilities · Regulated Electricas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $33.41 · now $33.41 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, PPL has typically landed between $30.52 and $36.30 — a range of −8.7% to +8.7% from the issuance price $33.41.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($33.41) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where PPL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $33.41 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$30.52worst · -8.7%$36.3best · +8.7%
  • now $33.41 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $33.79 (+1.1%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $32.54–$35.04
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $30.52–$36.3
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−47.1%−47.1%+0.0%
2020-02-20−43.7%−43.7%+0.6%
2020-02-24−38.7%−46.3%+0.0%
3 best
2020-03-23+36.1%+0.0%+43.6%
2020-05-07+26.2%+0.0%+26.2%
2020-03-20+24.9%−5.5%+35.7%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$27.3B
market cap
$1.64
EPS (TTM)
22.1
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-07
next earnings
Revenue$9.0B
'20'25
Net income$1.2B
'20'25
Free cash flow−$1.4B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr13.1%
'20'25
ROE · by yr7.9%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr1.30
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 32 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $33.41$-28.51$53.67
  • DCF (intrinsic)$-22.84
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 22.6× · n=32$37.02
  • Analyst target · range $37.00–$48.00$41.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$33.41

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
56%
+0.6%
n=18
Feb
42%
−2.4%
n=19
Mar
74%
+2.2%
n=19
Apr
63%
+1.0%
n=19
May
63%
+1.0%
n=19
Jun
47%
−0.3%
n=19
Jul
68%
+1.7%
n=19
Aug
47%
−0.8%
n=19
Sep
53%
−0.8%
n=19
Oct
61%
+1.1%
n=18
Nov
67%
+1.5%
n=18
Dec
50%
−0.1%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$40$332026-06-12: 1 insider sale, $251K — Cornett John Gregory2026-06: 1 open-market sale, $251K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Cornett John Gregory — Sale on 2026-06-12, filed 3 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-06-12Cornett John GregoryofficerSale7,051 @ $35.56$251K−47.6% of holding−2.4%not yet — horizon still open7,769Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-07-29Bonenberger David JofficerSale2,165 @ $35.86$78K−4.5% of holding−0.7%−7.1%45,560Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-27Bonenberger David JofficerSale1,767 @ $34.98$62K−3.7% of holding−6.6%−7.4%45,485Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-27Henninger Tadd JofficerSale1,076 @ $34.98$38K−8.7% of holding−6.6%−7.4%11,259Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-27Martin Christine MofficerSale306 @ $34.98$11K−0.8% of holding−6.6%−7.4%36,433Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-23Gosman Angela KofficerSale6,533 @ $34.66$226K−19.6% of holding−7.7%−8.6%26,832Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-02-28Martin Christine MofficerSale1,146 @ $34.78$40K−3.0% of holding+9.0%−3.9%37,167Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-02-18Bonenberger David JofficerSale4,523 @ $33.86$153K−9.1% of holding+10.4%+3.9%45,414Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-18Henninger Tadd JofficerSale2,248 @ $33.86$76K−16.6% of holding+10.4%+3.9%11,259Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

291 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-01Martin Christine MofficerOption exercise1,21247,948Form 4
2026-09-01Martin Christine MofficerWithheld for tax34647,602Form 4
2026-09-01Martin Christine MofficerOption exercise1,2120Form 4
2026-07-22Hartwick Kenneth MichaeldirectorAward / grant1,2281,228Form 4
2026-07-01DE LIMA ARMANDO ZAGALOdirectorAward / grant1,755133,405Form 4
2026-07-01BEATTIE ART PdirectorAward / grant1,44650,384Form 4
2026-07-01ROGERSON CRAIG AdirectorAward / grant1,228248,673Form 4
2026-07-01WOOD PHOEBE AdirectorAward / grant1,22853,698Form 4
2026-07-01Williamson Keith HdirectorAward / grant1,228141,535Form 4
2026-07-01Sullivan Linda GdirectorAward / grant1,22821,041Form 4
2026-07-01Madabhushi Venkata RdirectorAward / grant1,22897,394Form 4
2026-07-01Redman Heather BdirectorAward / grant1,22828,939Form 4
2026-04-24Bonenberger David JofficerOption exercise21772,056Form 4
2026-04-24Bonenberger David JofficerWithheld for tax9571,961Form 4
2026-04-24Bellar Lonnie EofficerOption exercise8142,242Form 4
2026-04-24Bellar Lonnie EofficerWithheld for tax3742,205Form 4
2026-04-24Bellar Lonnie EofficerOption exercise810Form 4
2026-04-24Bonenberger David JofficerOption exercise2170Form 4
2026-04-08Sorgi VincentofficerGift33,000612,492Form 4
2026-04-01DE LIMA ARMANDO ZAGALOdirectorAward / grant1,629130,606Form 4
2026-04-01BEATTIE ART PdirectorAward / grant1,34248,550Form 4
2026-04-01Redman Heather BdirectorAward / grant1,14027,490Form 4
2026-04-01ROGERSON CRAIG AdirectorAward / grant1,140245,480Form 4
2026-04-01Madabhushi Venkata RdirectorAward / grant1,14095,403Form 4
2026-04-01Williamson Keith HdirectorAward / grant1,140139,193Form 4
2026-04-01von Althann NaticadirectorAward / grant1,140107,614Form 4
2026-04-01Sullivan Linda GdirectorAward / grant1,14019,656Form 4
2026-04-01WOOD PHOEBE AdirectorAward / grant1,14052,053Form 4
2026-02-20Sorgi VincentofficerOption exercise68,775675,595Form 4
2026-02-20Sorgi VincentofficerWithheld for tax30,103645,492Form 4
2026-02-20Bergstein Joseph P JrofficerOption exercise21,118223,740Form 4
2026-02-20Stark Wendy EofficerOption exercise14,621111,026Form 4
2026-02-20Bergstein Joseph P JrofficerWithheld for tax9,244214,496Form 4
2026-02-20Crockett John R IIIofficerOption exercise9,22756,341Form 4
2026-02-20Gosman Angela KofficerOption exercise8,67060,456Form 4
2026-02-20Bonenberger David JofficerOption exercise7,87575,215Form 4
2026-02-20Stark Wendy EofficerWithheld for tax6,400104,626Form 4
2026-02-20Crockett John R IIIofficerWithheld for tax4,15752,184Form 4
2026-02-20Gosman Angela KofficerWithheld for tax3,84156,615Form 4
2026-02-20Bellar Lonnie EofficerOption exercise3,53343,197Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-12-082025-11-25$1–15K
Ritchie John TorresHousesale2025-08-202025-07-11$1–15K
Ritchie John TorresHousepurchase2025-08-202024-09-26$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-07-092025-06-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-04-102025-03-21$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-03-062025-02-24$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2024-09-062024-08-02$1–15K
Kathy ManningHousepurchase2022-11-102022-10-12$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2022-05-062022-04-23$1–15K
Virginia FoxxHousesale2022-04-052021-03-14$100–250K
Virginia FoxxHousepurchase2022-03-072022-02-14$15–50K
Virginia FoxxHousepurchase2022-02-042022-01-03$1–15K
Virginia FoxxHousepurchase2021-11-022021-10-04$1–15K
Thomas SuozziHousesale2021-09-232018-04-30$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.