Issued 2026-09-16 at $2.11 · now $2.11 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, POWW has typically landed between $1.61 and $2.69 — a range of −23.7% to +27.5% from the issuance price $2.11.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,393 overlapping 1 month windows · 2017-02-07 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($2.11) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where POWW has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $2.11 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $2.11 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $2.08 (-1.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $1.88–$2.28
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $1.61–$2.69
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2022-11-14 | −42.7% | −42.7% | +0.0% |
| 2022-11-11 | −41.0% | −41.0% | +1.3% |
| 2024-06-03 | −40.9% | −40.9% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2017-02-28 | +140.0% | +0.0% | +140.0% |
| 2020-12-16 | +117.5% | −2.2% | +124.0% |
| 2021-01-05 | +105.6% | +0.0% | +105.6% |
2,393 overlapping windows · 2017-02-07 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~10 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
88 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | Christensen Jordan | officer | Award / grant | 45,000 | 210,801 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Christensen Jordan | officer | Withheld for tax | 12,577 | 198,224 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Kasowski Paul Joseph | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,088 | 154,882 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Urvan Steven F. | director | Withheld for tax | 4,448 | 146,061 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | WALKER WAYNE REMELL | director | Award / grant | 15,000 | 191,413 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Urvan Steven F. | director | Award / grant | 15,000 | 150,509 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Tsentas Christos George | director | Award / grant | 15,000 | 191,413 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Akhavan Houman | director | Award / grant | 15,000 | 60,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Douglas David J. | director | Award / grant | 15,000 | 60,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Kasowski Paul Joseph | officer | Award / grant | 25,000 | 160,970 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Urvan Steven F. | director | Other acquisition | 0 | 17,222,857 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Christensen Jordan | officer | Award / grant | 45,000 | 178,385 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Kasowski Paul Joseph | officer | Award / grant | 25,000 | 142,058 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Akhavan Houman | director | Award / grant | 15,000 | 45,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Douglas David J. | director | Award / grant | 15,000 | 45,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Tsentas Christos George | director | Award / grant | 15,000 | 176,413 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Urvan Steven F. | director | Award / grant | 15,000 | 17,362,814 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | WALKER WAYNE REMELL | director | Award / grant | 15,000 | 176,413 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Christensen Jordan | officer | Withheld for tax | 12,584 | 165,801 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Kasowski Paul Joseph | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,088 | 135,970 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Urvan Steven F. | director | Withheld for tax | 4,448 | 17,358,366 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Christensen Jordan | officer | Withheld for tax | 14,970 | 133,385 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Kasowski Paul Joseph | officer | Withheld for tax | 8,038 | 117,058 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Urvan Steven F. | director | Withheld for tax | 4,448 | 17,347,814 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Christensen Jordan | officer | Award / grant | 45,000 | 148,355 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Douglas David J. | director | Award / grant | 15,000 | 30,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | WALKER WAYNE REMELL | director | Award / grant | 15,000 | 161,413 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Tsentas Christos George | director | Award / grant | 15,000 | 161,413 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Kasowski Paul Joseph | officer | Award / grant | 25,000 | 125,096 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Akhavan Houman | director | Award / grant | 15,000 | 30,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Urvan Steven F. | director | Award / grant | 15,000 | 17,352,262 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-15 | Christensen Jordan | officer | Withheld for tax | 25,121 | 103,355 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-15 | Kasowski Paul Joseph | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,712 | 100,096 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-15 | Cross Elizabeth Ann | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,941 | 93,868 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-15 | Urvan Steven F. | director | Withheld for tax | 4,448 | 17,337,262 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-15 | Christensen Jordan | officer | Award / grant | 90,000 | 128,476 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-15 | Cross Elizabeth Ann | officer | Award / grant | 18,750 | 98,809 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-15 | Akhavan Houman | director | Award / grant | 15,000 | 15,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-15 | Urvan Steven F. | director | Award / grant | 15,000 | 17,341,710 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-15 | Kasowski Paul Joseph | officer | Award / grant | 25,000 | 106,808 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.