Issued 2026-09-16 at $177.71 · now $177.71 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, POWL has typically landed between $142.74 and $246.57 — a range of −19.7% to +38.7% from the issuance price $177.71.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($177.71) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where POWL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $177.71 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $177.71 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $185.56 (+4.4%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $163.95–$207.17
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $142.74–$246.57
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-09-30 | −56.5% | −56.5% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-18 | −56.2% | −56.2% | +2.0% |
| 2008-09-26 | −53.9% | −53.9% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2024-01-30 | +127.4% | +0.0% | +127.4% |
| 2024-01-26 | +124.0% | +0.0% | +124.0% |
| 2024-01-29 | +120.4% | +0.0% | +120.4% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
55%
+3.5%
n=20
Feb
45%
+2.2%
n=20
Mar
65%
−0.4%
n=20
Apr
60%
+4.0%
n=20
May
60%
+8.5%
n=20
Jun
60%
+1.3%
n=20
Jul
45%
−0.2%
n=20
Aug
45%
+0.5%
n=20
Sep
55%
+1.0%
n=20
Oct
55%
+0.7%
n=20
Nov
60%
+4.0%
n=20
Dec
60%
+4.4%
n=20
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | Williams Richard E | director | Sale | 2,250 @ $203.05 | $457K | −5.7% of holding | −17.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 37,380 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | COPE BRETT ALAN | director | Sale | 4,500 @ $207.01 | $932K | −0.9% of holding | −14.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 512,733 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-09 | COPE BRETT ALAN | director | Sale | 4,440 @ $241.55 | $1.1M | −0.9% of holding | −13.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 517,233 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | COPE BRETT ALAN | director | Sale | 36,000 @ $0.01 | $360 | +7.4% of holding | −21.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 521,673 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | METCALF MICHAEL WILLIAM | officer | Sale | 1,235 @ $286.52 | $354K | −1.5% of holding | −26.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 79,399 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | METCALF MICHAEL WILLIAM | officer | Sale | 697 @ $285.66 | $199K | −0.9% of holding | −26.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 80,634 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | METCALF MICHAEL WILLIAM | officer | Sale | 619 @ $281.22 | $174K | −0.7% of holding | −26.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 82,594 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | METCALF MICHAEL WILLIAM | officer | Sale | 499 @ $287.57 | $143K | −0.6% of holding | −26.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 78,900 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | METCALF MICHAEL WILLIAM | officer | Sale | 471 @ $284.29 | $134K | −0.6% of holding | −26.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 81,331 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | METCALF MICHAEL WILLIAM | officer | Sale | 405 @ $283.34 | $115K | −0.5% of holding | −26.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 81,802 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | METCALF MICHAEL WILLIAM | officer | Sale | 387 @ $282.45 | $109K | −0.5% of holding | −26.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 82,207 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | METCALF MICHAEL WILLIAM | officer | Sale | 187 @ $280.05 | $52K | −0.2% of holding | −26.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 83,213 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-25 | POWELL THOMAS W | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 33,958 @ $294.49 | $10.0M | −5.7% of holding | −29.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 564,736 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | COPE BRETT ALAN | director | Sale | 4,440 @ $272.64 | $1.2M | −0.9% of holding | −21.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 485,673 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | Singh Mohit | director | Sale | 1,350 @ $293.21 | $396K | −33.1% of holding | −1.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,730 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | COPE BRETT ALAN | director | Sale | 4,440 @ $301.00 | $1.3M | −0.9% of holding | +1.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 490,113 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | Williams Richard E | director | Sale | 4,370 @ $298.88 | $1.3M | −9.7% of holding | +1.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 40,510 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | Williams Richard E | director | Sale | 740 @ $300.66 | $222K | −1.8% of holding | +1.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 39,770 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | Williams Richard E | director | Sale | 140 @ $301.05 | $42K | −0.4% of holding | +1.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 39,630 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Mauney William Marshall Jr | officer | Sale | 927 @ $321.86 | $298K | −6.9% of holding | −16.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 12,426 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Mauney William Marshall Jr | officer | Sale | 623 @ $325.97 | $203K | −5.4% of holding | −16.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,928 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Mauney William Marshall Jr | officer | Sale | 386 @ $322.70 | $125K | −3.1% of holding | −16.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 12,040 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Mauney William Marshall Jr | officer | Sale | 313 @ $324.87 | $102K | −2.6% of holding | −16.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,551 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Mauney William Marshall Jr | officer | Sale | 176 @ $323.82 | $57K | −1.5% of holding | −16.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,864 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Mauney William Marshall Jr | officer | Sale | 66 @ $327.06 | $22K | −0.6% of holding | −16.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,862 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Mauney William Marshall Jr | officer | Sale | 9 @ $327.69 | $3K | −0.1% of holding | −16.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,853 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-09 | COPE BRETT ALAN | director | Sale | 4,440 @ $233.96 | $1.0M | −2.6% of holding | +25.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 164,851 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-31 | METCALF MICHAEL WILLIAM | officer | Sale | 393 @ $536.81 | $211K | −1.4% of holding | +43.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 28,459 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-31 | METCALF MICHAEL WILLIAM | officer | Sale | 240 @ $535.81 | $129K | −0.8% of holding | +43.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 28,852 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-31 | METCALF MICHAEL WILLIAM | officer | Sale | 234 @ $539.07 | $126K | −0.8% of holding | +43.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 28,025 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-31 | METCALF MICHAEL WILLIAM | officer | Sale | 240 @ $519.47 | $125K | −0.8% of holding | +43.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 29,856 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-31 | METCALF MICHAEL WILLIAM | officer | Sale | 200 @ $537.51 | $108K | −0.7% of holding | +43.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 28,259 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-31 | METCALF MICHAEL WILLIAM | officer | Sale | 204 @ $522.15 | $107K | −0.7% of holding | +43.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 29,452 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-31 | METCALF MICHAEL WILLIAM | officer | Sale | 202 @ $518.67 | $105K | −0.7% of holding | +43.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 30,096 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-31 | METCALF MICHAEL WILLIAM | officer | Sale | 200 @ $520.85 | $104K | −0.7% of holding | +43.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 29,656 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-31 | METCALF MICHAEL WILLIAM | officer | Sale | 175 @ $540.19 | $95K | −0.6% of holding | +43.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 27,850 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-31 | METCALF MICHAEL WILLIAM | officer | Sale | 162 @ $517.35 | $84K | −0.5% of holding | +43.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 30,298 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-31 | METCALF MICHAEL WILLIAM | officer | Sale | 140 @ $516.09 | $72K | −0.5% of holding | +43.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 30,460 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-31 | METCALF MICHAEL WILLIAM | officer | Sale | 120 @ $534.62 | $64K | −0.4% of holding | +43.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 29,092 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-31 | METCALF MICHAEL WILLIAM | officer | Sale | 120 @ $522.88 | $63K | −0.4% of holding | +43.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 29,332 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-31 | METCALF MICHAEL WILLIAM | officer | Sale | 80 @ $513.07 | $41K | −0.3% of holding | +43.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 30,600 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-31 | METCALF MICHAEL WILLIAM | officer | Sale | 80 @ $511.76 | $41K | −0.3% of holding | +43.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 30,680 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-31 | METCALF MICHAEL WILLIAM | officer | Sale | 50 @ $541.43 | $27K | −0.2% of holding | +43.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 27,800 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-31 | METCALF MICHAEL WILLIAM | officer | Sale | 40 @ $532.74 | $21K | −0.1% of holding | +43.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 29,212 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-31 | METCALF MICHAEL WILLIAM | officer | Sale | 40 @ $530.81 | $21K | −0.1% of holding | +43.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 29,252 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-31 | METCALF MICHAEL WILLIAM | officer | Sale | 40 @ $528.67 | $21K | −0.1% of holding | +43.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 29,292 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-31 | METCALF MICHAEL WILLIAM | officer | Sale | 40 @ $510.16 | $20K | −0.1% of holding | +43.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 30,760 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-19 | POWELL THOMAS W | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 49,778 @ $502.23 | $25.0M | −7.7% of holding | +30.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 598,694 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | COPE BRETT ALAN | director | Sale | 1,480 @ $504.80 | $747K | −0.9% of holding | +30.5% | −8.7% | 169,291 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | POWELL THOMAS W | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 318 @ $560.37 | $178K | −0.0% of holding | +2.2% | −6.3% | 650,472 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | POWELL THOMAS W | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 412 @ $561.44 | $231K | −0.1% of holding | +8.7% | −9.9% | 651,137 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | POWELL THOMAS W | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 400 @ $560.30 | $224K | −0.1% of holding | +8.7% | −9.9% | 651,549 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | POWELL THOMAS W | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 223 @ $562.25 | $125K | −0.0% of holding | +8.7% | −9.9% | 650,914 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | POWELL THOMAS W | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 124 @ $563.65 | $70K | −0.0% of holding | +8.7% | −9.9% | 650,790 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-13 | POWELL THOMAS W | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 120 @ $600.06 | $72K | −0.0% of holding | −9.1% | −1.7% | 651,949 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-12 | POWELL THOMAS W | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 8,511 @ $600.56 | $5.1M | −1.3% of holding | −11.8% | −6.5% | 658,469 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-12 | POWELL THOMAS W | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 6,320 @ $601.39 | $3.8M | −1.0% of holding | −11.8% | −6.5% | 652,149 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-12 | POWELL THOMAS W | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 80 @ $602.58 | $48K | −0.0% of holding | −11.8% | −6.5% | 652,069 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | POWELL THOMAS W | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 7,976 @ $592.27 | $4.7M | −1.2% of holding | −10.8% | −9.6% | 669,289 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | POWELL THOMAS W | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 2,309 @ $593.57 | $1.4M | −0.3% of holding | −10.8% | −9.6% | 666,980 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
54 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-26 | HOGLUND PETER G | officer | Withheld for tax | 585 | 5,394 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-11 | POWELL THOMAS W | tenPercentOwner | Gift | 2,000 | 648,472 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-11 | POWELL THOMAS W | tenPercentOwner | Gift | 2,000 | 6,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | CURTIS KATHERYN BAUCOM | director | Award / grant | 200 | 5,960 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | McGill James W | director | Award / grant | 200 | 10,360 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | Williams Richard E | director | Award / grant | 200 | 14,960 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | Brooks Alaina K | director | Award / grant | 200 | 3,760 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | Singh Mohit | director | Award / grant | 200 | 1,360 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | Stacey John | director | Award / grant | 200 | 6,160 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | Smith Mark W. | director | Award / grant | 200 | 430 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-03 | TUNINETTI DAVIDE | officer | Withheld for tax | 110 | 1,070 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-03 | COPE BRETT ALAN | director | Award / grant | 1,300 | 170,771 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-03 | METCALF MICHAEL WILLIAM | officer | Award / grant | 500 | 30,800 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | MUDGE FREDERICK N | officer | Award / grant | 1,900 | 31,088 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | MUDGE FREDERICK N | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,167 | 29,921 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-01 | COPE BRETT ALAN | director | Award / grant | 24,000 | 169,471 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-01 | METCALF MICHAEL WILLIAM | officer | Award / grant | 7,000 | 30,300 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-01 | MUDGE FREDERICK N | officer | Award / grant | 4,400 | 29,188 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-01 | Mauney William Marshall Jr | officer | Award / grant | 3,000 | 7,451 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-01 | McKertcher Terry B | officer | Award / grant | 2,600 | 9,533 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-01 | Birchall John | officer | Award / grant | 2,400 | 8,967 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-16 | Ni Ping | officer | Withheld for tax | 380 | 2,093 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-01 | COPE BRETT ALAN | director | Award / grant | 1,900 | 145,471 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-01 | METCALF MICHAEL WILLIAM | officer | Award / grant | 600 | 23,300 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-01 | McKertcher Terry B | officer | Award / grant | 400 | 6,933 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-01 | TUNINETTI DAVIDE | officer | Award / grant | 400 | 1,180 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-01 | MUDGE FREDERICK N | officer | Award / grant | 400 | 24,788 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-01 | Birchall John | officer | Award / grant | 300 | 6,567 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-01 | HOGLUND PETER G | officer | Award / grant | 300 | 1,993 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-01 | Mauney William Marshall Jr | officer | Award / grant | 300 | 4,451 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-01 | Eckenrode David L | officer | Award / grant | 100 | 738 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-01 | Ni Ping | officer | Award / grant | 100 | 2,473 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-30 | COPE BRETT ALAN | director | Withheld for tax | 3,900 | 143,571 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-30 | METCALF MICHAEL WILLIAM | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,000 | 22,700 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-30 | MUDGE FREDERICK N | officer | Withheld for tax | 600 | 24,388 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-30 | McKertcher Terry B | officer | Withheld for tax | 467 | 6,533 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-30 | Mauney William Marshall Jr | officer | Withheld for tax | 466 | 4,151 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-30 | Birchall John | officer | Withheld for tax | 433 | 6,267 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-30 | Ni Ping | officer | Withheld for tax | 57 | 2,373 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-30 | Eckenrode David L | officer | Withheld for tax | 57 | 638 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.