POSTPost Holdings, Inc.Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foodsas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $78.49 · now $78.49 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, POST has typically landed between $71.31 and $86.55 — a range of −9.1% to +10.3% from the issuance price $78.49.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

3,659 overlapping 1 month windows · 2012-01-27 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($78.49) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where POST has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $78.49 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$71.31worst · -9.1%$86.55best · +10.3%
  • now $78.49 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $78.56 (+0.1%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $75.55–$81.57
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $71.31–$86.55
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,659 windows spanning 2012-01-27 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−31.9%−31.9%+0.0%
2020-02-20−31.4%−31.4%+0.0%
2020-02-19−30.0%−30.0%+0.0%
3 best
2012-01-27+80.3%+0.0%+80.3%
2012-01-31+78.8%+0.0%+78.9%
2012-01-30+77.6%+0.0%+79.6%

3,659 overlapping windows · 2012-01-27 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~15 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
57%
+1.5%
n=14
Feb
73%
+8.8%
n=15
Mar
47%
+0.6%
n=15
Apr
67%
+1.7%
n=15
May
33%
−2.5%
n=15
Jun
60%
+2.5%
n=15
Jul
60%
+0.8%
n=15
Aug
60%
+1.5%
n=15
Sep
27%
−3.3%
n=15
Oct
36%
+0.0%
n=14
Nov
86%
+5.4%
n=14
Dec
43%
+0.3%
n=14

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$115$762026-09-02: 2 insider sales, $23.4M — STIRITZ WILLIAM P …2026-09-01: 2 insider sales, $8.9M — STIRITZ WILLIAM P …2026-05-13: 1 insider sale, $650K — CURL GREGORY L2026-02-09: 1 insider sale, $798K — CURL GREGORY L2025-12-05: 1 insider sale, $160K — HARPER BRADLY A2025-11-25: 1 insider sale, $1.0M — CATOGGIO NICOLAS2025-11-24: 1 insider purchase, $176K — KEMPER DAVID W2025-08-19: 1 insider purchase, $3.9M — STIRITZ WILLIAM P2025-08: 1 open-market purchase, $3.9M2025-11: 1 open-market purchase, $176K2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $1.0M2025-12: 1 open-market sale, $160K2026-02: 1 open-market sale, $798K2026-05: 1 open-market sale, $650K2026-09: 4 open-market sales, $32.3M↑ buys↓ salesdirector STIRITZ WILLIAM P — Sale on 2026-09-02, filed 1 day after the tradedirector STIRITZ WILLIAM P — Sale on 2026-09-02, filed 1 day after the tradedirector STIRITZ WILLIAM P — Sale on 2026-09-01, filed 2 days after the tradedirector STIRITZ WILLIAM P — Sale on 2026-09-01, filed 2 days after the tradedirector CURL GREGORY L — Sale on 2026-05-13, filed 1 day after the tradedirector CURL GREGORY L — Sale on 2026-02-09, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer HARPER BRADLY A — Sale on 2025-12-05, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer CATOGGIO NICOLAS — Sale on 2025-11-25, filed 1 day after the tradedirector KEMPER DAVID W — Purchase on 2025-11-24, filed 1 day after the tradedirector STIRITZ WILLIAM P — Purchase on 2025-08-19, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-02STIRITZ WILLIAM PdirectorSale277,707 @ $84.23$23.4M−99.9% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open228Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-02STIRITZ WILLIAM PdirectorSale228 @ $85.01$19K−100.0% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-01STIRITZ WILLIAM PdirectorSale99,990 @ $83.54$8.4M−26.0% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open284,142Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-09-01STIRITZ WILLIAM PdirectorSale6,207 @ $84.63$525K−2.2% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open277,935Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-13CURL GREGORY LdirectorSale6,186 @ $105.05$650K−29.1% of holding−10.6%not yet — horizon still open15,107Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-09CURL GREGORY LdirectorSale6,983 @ $114.31$798K−24.7% of holding−8.3%−42.7%21,293Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-05HARPER BRADLY AofficerSale1,658 @ $96.69$160K−12.7% of holding−0.4%−12.8%11,441Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-11-25CATOGGIO NICOLASofficerSale10,000 @ $100.21$1.0M−11.7% of holding−2.4%−21.8%75,542Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-24KEMPER DAVID WdirectorPurchase1,800 @ $97.93$176K+6.1% of holding+0.9%−14.2%31,522Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-19STIRITZ WILLIAM PdirectorPurchase36,000 @ $109.53$3.9M+0.8% of holding−9.0%−10.1%4,334,667Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-05STIRITZ WILLIAM PdirectorPurchase186,740 @ $109.11$20.4M+4.5% of holding−6.7%−25.9%4,298,667Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-06-05CATOGGIO NICOLASofficerSale1,750 @ $108.97$191K−3.8% of holding−6.7%−25.9%43,751Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-07CATOGGIO NICOLASofficerSale5,000 @ $117.00$585K−9.9% of holding+9.8%−22.4%45,501Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-03-04HARPER BRADLY AofficerSale2,000 @ $114.59$229K−18.6% of holding+4.6%−13.8%8,741Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-03CATOGGIO NICOLASofficerSale5,000 @ $114.50$573K−9.0% of holding+6.0%−12.9%50,501Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-25VITALE ROBERT VdirectorSale40,381 @ $115.87$4.7M−4.6% of holding+2.3%−11.9%840,928Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-25CATOGGIO NICOLASofficerSale5,000 @ $116.50$583K−8.3% of holding+2.3%−11.9%55,501Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-25VITALE ROBERT VdirectorSale3,729 @ $116.55$435K−0.4% of holding+2.3%−11.9%837,199Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-24VITALE ROBERT VdirectorSale17,005 @ $115.53$2.0M−2.0% of holding+0.2%−10.5%839,327Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-24VITALE ROBERT VdirectorSale2,128 @ $116.43$248K−0.3% of holding+0.2%−10.5%837,199Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-21GRAY DIEDRE JofficerSale15,157 @ $115.80$1.8M−44.0% of holding+0.4%−9.6%19,325Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-02-12CATOGGIO NICOLASofficerSale10,000 @ $111.73$1.1M−14.2% of holding+7.2%−10.2%60,501Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-11KEMPER DAVID WdirectorSale8,939 @ $110.75$990K−23.1% of holding+9.4%−9.5%29,722Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

277 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-31KEMPER DAVID WdirectorAward / grant20721,328Form 4
2026-08-31SKARIE DAVID PdirectorAward / grant16033,832Form 4
2026-08-31BURWELL DOROTHY MdirectorAward / grant1338,872Form 4
2026-08-31CURL GREGORY LdirectorAward / grant1338,060Form 4
2026-08-31Zadoks Jeff AdirectorAward / grant133670Form 4
2026-08-31ERB THOMAS CdirectorAward / grant1337,360Form 4
2026-08-31JOHNSON JENNIFER KUPERMANdirectorAward / grant1337,360Form 4
2026-08-31Atkinson Michelle MariedirectorAward / grant133670Form 4
2026-08-25Zadoks Jeff AdirectorGift26,2151,800Form 4
2026-08-25Zadoks Jeff AdirectorGift122,740122,740Form 4
2026-08-25Zadoks Jeff AdirectorGift122,7400Form 4
2026-08-25Zadoks Jeff AdirectorGift26,21574,360Form 4
2026-07-31KEMPER DAVID WdirectorAward / grant18821,106Form 4
2026-07-31SKARIE DAVID PdirectorAward / grant14633,649Form 4
2026-07-31Zadoks Jeff AdirectorAward / grant122536Form 4
2026-07-31Atkinson Michelle MariedirectorAward / grant122536Form 4
2026-07-31JOHNSON JENNIFER KUPERMANdirectorAward / grant1227,222Form 4
2026-07-31ERB THOMAS CdirectorAward / grant1227,222Form 4
2026-07-31BURWELL DOROTHY MdirectorAward / grant1228,733Form 4
2026-07-31CURL GREGORY LdirectorAward / grant1227,921Form 4
2026-07-02Zadoks Jeff AdirectorWithheld for tax3,86731,566Form 4
2026-07-02Zadoks Jeff AdirectorWithheld for tax3,55128,015Form 4
2026-07-02Zadoks Jeff AdirectorWithheld for tax2,54435,433Form 4
2026-06-30KEMPER DAVID WdirectorAward / grant19520,925Form 4
2026-06-30SKARIE DAVID PdirectorAward / grant15133,513Form 4
2026-06-30ERB THOMAS CdirectorAward / grant1267,103Form 4
2026-06-30JOHNSON JENNIFER KUPERMANdirectorAward / grant1267,103Form 4
2026-06-30Zadoks Jeff AdirectorAward / grant126415Form 4
2026-06-30Atkinson Michelle MariedirectorAward / grant126415Form 4
2026-06-30BURWELL DOROTHY MdirectorAward / grant1268,614Form 4
2026-06-30CURL GREGORY LdirectorAward / grant1267,802Form 4
2026-05-29KEMPER DAVID WdirectorAward / grant18820,732Form 4
2026-05-29SKARIE DAVID PdirectorAward / grant14533,366Form 4
2026-05-29BURWELL DOROTHY MdirectorAward / grant1218,489Form 4
2026-05-29Zadoks Jeff AdirectorAward / grant121289Form 4
2026-05-29JOHNSON JENNIFER KUPERMANdirectorAward / grant1216,977Form 4
2026-05-29Atkinson Michelle MariedirectorAward / grant121289Form 4
2026-05-29ERB THOMAS CdirectorAward / grant1216,977Form 4
2026-05-29CURL GREGORY LdirectorAward / grant1217,677Form 4
2026-04-30KEMPER DAVID WdirectorAward / grant16420,534Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.