Issued 2026-09-16 at $47.91 · now $47.91 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, POR has typically landed between $43.99 and $51.98 — a range of −8.2% to +8.5% from the issuance price $47.91.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($47.91) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where POR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $47.91 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $47.91 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $48.29 (+0.8%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $46.58–$50
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $43.99–$51.98
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-21 | −36.3% | −36.3% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-20 | −35.5% | −35.5% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-13 | −33.3% | −33.3% | +0.2% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-03-23 | +26.1% | +0.0% | +33.5% |
| 2009-03-05 | +24.2% | +0.0% | +28.9% |
| 2009-03-03 | +20.6% | −4.1% | +23.6% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | Lewis Michael A | director | Sale | 1,537 @ $51.83 | $80K | −9.3% of holding | −6.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,045 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | HOGLUND ROBERT N | director | Purchase | 2,000 @ $48.80 | $98K | +385.4% of holding | +6.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,519 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | McFarland John Carter | officer | Sale | 1,571 @ $48.52 | $76K | −7.4% of holding | +6.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 19,719 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | McFarland John Carter | officer | Sale | 819 @ $48.51 | $40K | −3.7% of holding | +6.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 21,290 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-08 | Gallegos Juan Diego | officer | Sale | 2,750 @ $48.67 | $134K | −18.5% of holding | +3.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 12,127 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-07 | Espinosa Maria Angelica | officer | Sale | 4,300 @ $48.81 | $210K | −14.9% of holding | +1.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 24,583 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-06 | Trpik Joseph R JR | officer | Sale | 7,400 @ $49.03 | $363K | −18.8% of holding | +3.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 31,997 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-06 | Trpik Joseph R JR | officer | Sale | 100 @ $49.05 | $5K | −0.3% of holding | +3.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 31,897 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | Felton Benjamin | officer | Sale | 4,969 @ $53.56 | $266K | −10.8% of holding | +6.1% | −18.9% | 41,081 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-10 | POPE MARIA M | director | Sale | 18,896 @ $42.50 | $803K | −8.9% of holding | +1.7% | +25.1% | 194,135 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-22 | Bekkedahl Larry Neal | officer | Sale | 2,000 @ $43.00 | $86K | −5.6% of holding | −2.8% | +19.9% | 33,670 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-06 | McFarland John Carter | officer | Sale | 2,190 @ $42.34 | $93K | −9.5% of holding | −0.6% | +16.1% | 20,819 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-01 | Trpik Joseph R JR | officer | Sale | 2,603 @ $41.35 | $108K | −8.8% of holding | −0.8% | +11.2% | 27,089 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-31 | Kochavatr John Teeruk | officer | Sale | 6,000 @ $41.15 | $247K | −19.6% of holding | +2.0% | +15.0% | 24,609 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-21 | Lewis Michael A | director | Sale | 1,937 @ $40.10 | $78K | −12.5% of holding | +3.0% | +16.7% | 13,509 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-17 | Felton Benjamin | officer | Sale | 1,845 @ $43.02 | $79K | −5.3% of holding | −13.8% | −20.8% | 32,646 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-18 | Espinosa Maria Angelica | officer | Sale | 2,618 @ $41.32 | $108K | −11.1% of holding | +10.7% | −3.2% | 21,014 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-18 | Trpik Joseph R JR | officer | Sale | 1,375 @ $41.32 | $57K | −4.1% of holding | +10.7% | −3.2% | 31,960 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-18 | Felton Benjamin | officer | Sale | 575 @ $41.32 | $24K | −1.5% of holding | +10.7% | −3.2% | 37,282 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-13 | Espinosa Maria Angelica | officer | Sale | 2,199 @ $41.90 | $92K | −8.1% of holding | +13.3% | −2.9% | 24,839 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
154 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | Huber Marie Oh | director | Award / grant | 3,073 | 22,288 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-24 | James Renee Jo | director | Award / grant | 3,073 | 7,240 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-24 | Lewis Michael A | director | Award / grant | 3,073 | 16,582 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-24 | Millegan Michael | director | Award / grant | 3,073 | 23,763 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-24 | O'Leary John H. | director | Award / grant | 3,073 | 11,972 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-24 | Torgerson James P | director | Award / grant | 3,073 | 23,519 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-24 | HOGLUND ROBERT N | director | Award / grant | 3,073 | 5,592 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-24 | Pineda Patricia Salas | director | Award / grant | 3,073 | 15,266 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | HOGLUND ROBERT N | director | Award / grant | 519 | 519 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | POPE MARIA M | director | Award / grant | 60,112 | 281,359 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | POPE MARIA M | director | Withheld for tax | 30,928 | 250,432 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | POPE MARIA M | director | Award / grant | 27,112 | 221,247 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Trpik Joseph R JR | officer | Award / grant | 13,293 | 46,691 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Felton Benjamin | officer | Award / grant | 10,059 | 50,678 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Bekkedahl Larry Neal | officer | Award / grant | 8,161 | 41,444 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Espinosa Maria Angelica | officer | Award / grant | 7,983 | 33,442 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Kochavatr John Teeruk | officer | Award / grant | 7,724 | 36,700 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Felton Benjamin | officer | Award / grant | 7,379 | 40,619 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | POPE MARIA M | director | Withheld for tax | 6,319 | 241,350 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Trpik Joseph R JR | officer | Award / grant | 6,309 | 33,398 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | POPE MARIA M | director | Withheld for tax | 5,991 | 235,892 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Espinosa Maria Angelica | officer | Award / grant | 5,325 | 25,459 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Trpik Joseph R JR | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,141 | 41,550 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | McFarland John Carter | officer | Award / grant | 5,081 | 25,924 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | POPE MARIA M | director | Withheld for tax | 5,058 | 246,591 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Wyspianski Martin Kajetan | officer | Award / grant | 4,374 | 18,788 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Kochavatr John Teeruk | officer | Award / grant | 4,257 | 28,976 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Kochavatr John Teeruk | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,820 | 32,880 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Gallegos Juan Diego | officer | Award / grant | 3,787 | 17,458 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | McFarland John Carter | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,078 | 23,262 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Bekkedahl Larry Neal | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,975 | 38,468 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Espinosa Maria Angelica | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,910 | 30,532 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Felton Benjamin | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,877 | 47,801 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Gallegos Juan Diego | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,561 | 15,158 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Wyspianski Martin Kajetan | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,369 | 17,550 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | POPE MARIA M | director | Award / grant | 1,217 | 251,649 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | POPE MARIA M | director | Award / grant | 1,078 | 247,808 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Trpik Joseph R JR | officer | Withheld for tax | 941 | 40,178 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Felton Benjamin | officer | Withheld for tax | 936 | 46,787 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | McFarland John Carter | officer | Withheld for tax | 914 | 22,109 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.