POOLPool Corporationas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $167.76 · now $167.76 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, POOL has typically landed between $144.79 and $192.20 — a range of −13.7% to +14.6% from the issuance price $167.76.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,673 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($167.76) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where POOL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $167.76 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$144.79worst · -13.7%$192.2best · +14.6%
  • now $167.76 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $165.26 (-1.5%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $155.73–$174.8
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $144.79–$192.2
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,673 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-09-23−34.2%−34.2%+0.0%
2008-09-26−33.7%−33.7%+0.0%
2008-09-25−32.6%−32.6%+0.0%
3 best
2009-06-24+56.0%+0.0%+56.0%
2009-07-09+51.4%+0.0%+52.1%
2009-06-23+50.9%−0.9%+50.9%

4,673 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
61%
+1.7%
n=18
Feb
53%
−0.7%
n=19
Mar
63%
+1.1%
n=19
Apr
58%
+5.0%
n=19
May
53%
+0.7%
n=19
Jun
53%
+0.7%
n=19
Jul
68%
+4.8%
n=19
Aug
47%
−0.3%
n=19
Sep
53%
−0.2%
n=19
Oct
50%
−0.8%
n=18
Nov
61%
+3.1%
n=18
Dec
67%
+1.5%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$328$1672026-05-13: 1 insider purchase, $1.8M — PEREZ DE LA MESA MANUEL J2026-05-08: 1 insider purchase, $100K — WHALEN DAVID G2026-05-07: 3 insider purchases, $2.2M — PEREZ DE LA MESA MANUEL J, STOKELY JOHN E, Hope James D2026-03-24: 1 insider sale, $103K — NEIL JENNIFER M2026-03-13: 1 insider purchase, $1.0M — PEREZ DE LA MESA MANUEL J2026-03-02: 1 insider purchase, $1.1M — PEREZ DE LA MESA MANUEL J2026-02-25: 1 insider purchase, $300K — Hope James D2026-02-24: 1 insider sale, $605K — HART MELANIE M2026-02-23: 2 insider purchases, $1.2M — St Romain Kenneth G …2025-12-02: 3 insider sales, $1.2M — Arvan Peter D …2025-12: 3 open-market sales, $1.2M2026-02: 3 open-market purchases, $1.5M2026-02: 1 open-market sale, $605K2026-03: 2 open-market purchases, $2.1M2026-03: 1 open-market sale, $103K2026-05: 5 open-market purchases, $4.0M↑ buys↓ salesdirector PEREZ DE LA MESA MANUEL J — Purchase on 2026-05-13, filed 1 day after the tradedirector WHALEN DAVID G — Purchase on 2026-05-08, filed 4 days after the tradedirector PEREZ DE LA MESA MANUEL J — Purchase on 2026-05-07, filed 1 day after the tradedirector STOKELY JOHN E — Purchase on 2026-05-07, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Hope James D — Purchase on 2026-05-07, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer NEIL JENNIFER M — Sale on 2026-03-24, filed 2 days after the tradedirector PEREZ DE LA MESA MANUEL J — Purchase on 2026-03-13, filed 4 days after the tradedirector PEREZ DE LA MESA MANUEL J — Purchase on 2026-03-02, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Hope James D — Purchase on 2026-02-25, filed 2 days after the tradedirector HART MELANIE M — Sale on 2026-02-24, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer St Romain Kenneth G — Purchase on 2026-02-23, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer St Romain Kenneth G — Purchase on 2026-02-23, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Arvan Peter D — Sale on 2025-12-02, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Arvan Peter D — Sale on 2025-12-02, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Arvan Peter D — Sale on 2025-12-02, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-05-13PEREZ DE LA MESA MANUEL JdirectorPurchase10,000 @ $175.95$1.8M+33.2% of holding+12.1%not yet — horizon still open40,108Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-08WHALEN DAVID GdirectorPurchase525 @ $190.44$100K+6.2% of holding+3.3%not yet — horizon still open8,936Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-07PEREZ DE LA MESA MANUEL JdirectorPurchase10,000 @ $190.00$1.9M+49.7% of holding−5.3%not yet — horizon still open30,108Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-07STOKELY JOHN EdirectorPurchase1,000 @ $193.06$193K+6.6% of holding−5.3%not yet — horizon still open16,230Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-07Hope James DdirectorPurchase464 @ $194.41$90K+14.4% of holding−5.3%not yet — horizon still open3,678Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-24NEIL JENNIFER MofficerSale508 @ $203.60$103K−3.5% of holding+4.1%not yet — horizon still open13,969Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-13PEREZ DE LA MESA MANUEL JdirectorPurchase5,000 @ $205.00$1.0M+4.8% of holding+0.3%not yet — horizon still open110,108Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-02PEREZ DE LA MESA MANUEL JdirectorPurchase5,000 @ $218.00$1.1M+5.0% of holding−3.3%not yet — horizon still open105,108Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-25Hope James DdirectorPurchase1,405 @ $213.64$300K+120.6% of holding+0.9%−29.3%2,570Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-24HART MELANIE MdirectorSale2,750 @ $220.00$605K−13.2% of holding−2.2%−31.1%18,039Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-23St Romain Kenneth GofficerPurchase4,560 @ $219.50$1.0M+5.9% of holding−2.4%−30.1%81,845Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-23St Romain Kenneth GofficerPurchase1,000 @ $214.89$215K+1.2% of holding−2.4%−30.1%82,845Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-02Arvan Peter DofficerSale2,454 @ $244.65$600K−2.7% of holding−6.7%−35.8%88,958Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-02Arvan Peter DofficerSale1,402 @ $246.84$346K−1.6% of holding−6.7%−35.8%86,412Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-02Arvan Peter DofficerSale1,144 @ $245.98$281K−1.3% of holding−6.7%−35.8%87,814Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-31NEIL JENNIFER MofficerSale1,223 @ $315.00$385K−11.2% of holding−7.1%−22.0%9,667Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-25PEREZ DE LA MESA MANUEL JdirectorSale10,000 @ $349.00$3.5M−13.8% of holding−1.9%−17.3%62,577Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-25PEREZ DE LA MESA MANUEL JdirectorSale10,000 @ $347.00$3.5M−13.8% of holding−1.9%−17.3%62,577Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-25PEREZ DE LA MESA MANUEL JdirectorSale7,500 @ $349.50$2.6M−10.7% of holding−1.9%−17.3%62,577Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-24PEREZ DE LA MESA MANUEL JdirectorSale10,000 @ $346.00$3.5M−13.8% of holding−1.9%−14.3%62,577Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-24HART MELANIE MdirectorSale1,250 @ $344.92$431K−7.3% of holding−1.9%−14.3%15,782Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-24HART MELANIE MdirectorSale1,062 @ $346.38$368K−6.7% of holding−1.9%−14.3%14,720Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

97 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-13PEREZ DE LA MESA MANUEL JdirectorGift3,963896,009Form 4
2026-08-13PEREZ DE LA MESA MANUEL JdirectorGift3,96344,071Form 4
2026-07-27Saik WalkerofficerWithheld for tax221,959Form 4
2026-05-28WHALEN DAVID GdirectorCode L38,939Form 4
2026-05-04Watwood John BruceofficerAward / grant8,61021,413Form 4
2026-05-04Watwood John BruceofficerAward / grant4,30512,803Form 4
2026-04-29POMPA MARK AdirectorAward / grant1,1691,169Form 4
2026-04-29OLER DEBRA SUEdirectorAward / grant6443,607Form 4
2026-04-29Murphy Kevin MichaeldirectorAward / grant6441,105Form 4
2026-04-29GERVASI MARTHA SdirectorAward / grant6442,617Form 4
2026-04-29Hope James DdirectorAward / grant6443,214Form 4
2026-04-29STOKELY JOHN EdirectorAward / grant64415,230Form 4
2026-04-29PEREZ DE LA MESA MANUEL JdirectorAward / grant2,6042,604Form 4
2026-04-29WHALEN DAVID GdirectorAward / grant6448,411Form 4
2026-04-07PEREZ DE LA MESA MANUEL JdirectorGift90,000899,972Form 4
2026-04-07PEREZ DE LA MESA MANUEL JdirectorGift90,00020,108Form 4
2026-03-26WHALEN DAVID GdirectorCode L457,767Form 4
2026-03-25HART MELANIE MdirectorCode L826,387Form 4
2026-02-25HART MELANIE MdirectorAward / grant2,85220,675Form 4
2026-02-25Arvan Peter DofficerAward / grant21,536110,999Form 4
2026-02-25Arvan Peter DofficerAward / grant10,76889,463Form 4
2026-02-25Watwood John BruceofficerAward / grant5,0065,006Form 4
2026-02-25Watwood John BruceofficerAward / grant3,4928,498Form 4
2026-02-25NEIL JENNIFER MofficerAward / grant3,61414,477Form 4
2026-02-25NEIL JENNIFER MofficerAward / grant1,80710,863Form 4
2026-02-25St Romain Kenneth GofficerAward / grant6,52092,258Form 4
2026-02-25St Romain Kenneth GofficerAward / grant3,26085,738Form 4
2026-02-25HART MELANIE MdirectorAward / grant5,70426,379Form 4
2026-02-25Saik WalkerofficerAward / grant7921,981Form 4
2026-02-24PEREZ DE LA MESA MANUEL JdirectorWithheld for tax17,92512,075Form 4
2026-02-24PEREZ DE LA MESA MANUEL JdirectorOption exercise30,00030,000Form 4
2026-02-24Arvan Peter DofficerWithheld for tax3,77578,695Form 4
2026-02-24HART MELANIE MdirectorOption exercise2,75020,789Form 4
2026-02-24St Romain Kenneth GofficerWithheld for tax36782,478Form 4
2026-02-24HART MELANIE MdirectorWithheld for tax21617,823Form 4
2026-02-24NEIL JENNIFER MofficerWithheld for tax1959,056Form 4
2026-02-24HART MELANIE MdirectorOption exercise2,7500Form 4
2026-02-24PEREZ DE LA MESA MANUEL JdirectorOption exercise30,0000Form 4
2026-02-23PEREZ DE LA MESA MANUEL JdirectorGift3,000815,630Form 4
2026-02-23PEREZ DE LA MESA MANUEL JdirectorGift5,658809,972Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-06-092026-05-15$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-05-112026-04-13$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-04-072026-03-10$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-04-072026-03-23$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-02-062026-01-29$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-06$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-02-062026-01-13$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-12-082025-11-10$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-09-092025-08-04$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-09-092025-08-04$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-07-092025-06-23$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-03-062025-02-25$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.