PONY · TickerCove

PONYPony AI Inc. American Depositary SharesTechnology · Software - Applicationas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $6.55 · now $6.55 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, PONY has typically landed between $4.06 and $10.38 — a range of −37.9% to +58.5% from the issuance price $6.55.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

429 overlapping 1 month windows · 2024-11-27 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($6.55) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$6.55 · 0% of range

$6.55 low$24.06 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−3.0%

typical move · IQR 31.4%

−37.9%worst (p90)+58.5%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where PONY has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $6.55 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $6.55 (+0.0%)
typical $6.35 (-3.0%)
middle 50% $5.33–$7.38
90% range $4.06–$10.38

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 429 windows spanning 2024-11-27 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2025-03-21	−67.3%	−67.3%	+3.9%
2025-03-20	−66.6%	−66.6%	+5.7%
2025-03-19	−64.3%	−64.3%	+5.3%
3 best
2025-04-21	+327.8%	−0.5%	+380.1%
2025-04-22	+315.6%	+0.0%	+382.5%
2025-04-16	+293.0%	−11.3%	+327.9%

429 overlapping windows · 2024-11-27 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~2 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

−6.3%

n=2

Feb

100%

+12.7%

n=2

Mar

−39.6%

n=2

Apr

100%

+3.8%

n=2

May

100%

+56.8%

n=2

Jun

−31.1%

n=2

Jul

100%

+7.5%

n=2

Aug

50%

−1.5%

n=2

Sep

50%

+24.4%

n=2

Oct

−16.9%

n=1

Nov

−26.8%

n=1

Dec

100%

+8.1%

n=2

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-06-26	ZHANG NING	officer	Sale	17,347 @ $6.86	$119K	−2.7% of holding	+8.7%	not yet — horizon still open	630,109	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-06-26	Mo Luyi	officer	Sale	14,460 @ $6.86	$99K	−4.0% of holding	+8.7%	not yet — horizon still open	350,156	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-06-26	Wang Haojun	officer	Sale	13,751 @ $6.86	$94K	−0.9% of holding	+8.7%	not yet — horizon still open	1,442,504	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-03-30	Gao Tian	officer	Sale	31,561 @ $8.69	$274K	−8.7% of holding	−0.7%	not yet — horizon still open	331,683	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-30	ZHANG NING	officer	Sale	22,946 @ $8.69	$199K	−3.6% of holding	−0.7%	not yet — horizon still open	612,539	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-30	Mo Luyi	officer	Sale	19,864 @ $8.69	$173K	−5.6% of holding	−0.7%	not yet — horizon still open	335,526	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-30	Wang Haojun	officer	Sale	18,283 @ $8.69	$159K	−1.3% of holding	−0.7%	not yet — horizon still open	1,421,543	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

102 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-06-25	Lou Tiancheng	director	Disposition	31,250	80,197	Form 4
2026-06-25	ZHANG NING	officer	Option exercise	10,000	56,667	Form 4
2026-06-25	ZHANG NING	officer	Option exercise	20,000	186,668	Form 4
2026-06-25	Wang Haojun	officer	Option exercise	962	3,209	Form 4
2026-06-25	Mo Luyi	officer	Option exercise	3,667	0	Form 4
2026-06-25	Mo Luyi	officer	Option exercise	417	0	Form 4
2026-06-25	Mo Luyi	officer	Option exercise	15,000	140,002	Form 4
2026-06-25	Wang Haojun	officer	Option exercise	10,000	56,667	Form 4
2026-06-25	Mo Luyi	officer	Option exercise	944	3,146	Form 4
2026-06-25	Mo Luyi	officer	Option exercise	9,062	51,355	Form 4
2026-06-25	Wang Haojun	officer	Option exercise	23,750	221,668	Form 4
2026-06-25	ZHANG NING	officer	Option exercise	3,667	0	Form 4
2026-06-25	ZHANG NING	officer	Option exercise	1,250	4,167	Form 4
2026-06-25	Lou Tiancheng	director	Option exercise	31,250	291,667	Form 4
2026-06-25	ZHANG NING	officer	Option exercise	1,250	617,456	Form 4
2026-06-25	Wang Haojun	officer	Option exercise	962	1,422,505	Form 4
2026-06-25	Wang Haojun	officer	Option exercise	10,000	1,432,505	Form 4
2026-06-25	ZHANG NING	officer	Option exercise	3,667	616,206	Form 4
2026-06-25	Mo Luyi	officer	Option exercise	9,062	349,616	Form 4
2026-06-25	Mo Luyi	officer	Option exercise	15,000	364,616	Form 4
2026-06-25	ZHANG NING	officer	Option exercise	10,000	627,456	Form 4
2026-06-25	ZHANG NING	officer	Option exercise	20,000	647,456	Form 4
2026-06-25	Wang Haojun	officer	Option exercise	23,750	1,456,255	Form 4
2026-06-25	Mo Luyi	officer	Option exercise	3,667	339,193	Form 4
2026-06-25	Mo Luyi	officer	Option exercise	944	340,554	Form 4
2026-06-25	Mo Luyi	officer	Option exercise	9,062	349,616	Form 4
2026-06-25	Lou Tiancheng	director	Option exercise	31,250	111,447	Form 4
2026-06-25	Mo Luyi	officer	Option exercise	15,000	364,616	Form 4
2026-06-25	Lou Tiancheng	director	Option exercise	31,250	111,447	Form 4
2026-06-25	Wang Haojun	officer	Option exercise	962	1,422,505	Form 4
2026-06-25	Wang Haojun	officer	Option exercise	10,000	1,432,505	Form 4
2026-06-25	Wang Haojun	officer	Option exercise	23,750	1,456,255	Form 4
2026-06-25	ZHANG NING	officer	Option exercise	3,667	616,206	Form 4
2026-06-25	ZHANG NING	officer	Option exercise	1,250	617,456	Form 4
2026-06-25	ZHANG NING	officer	Option exercise	10,000	627,456	Form 4
2026-06-25	ZHANG NING	officer	Option exercise	20,000	647,456	Form 4
2026-06-25	Mo Luyi	officer	Option exercise	3,667	339,193	Form 4
2026-06-25	Mo Luyi	officer	Option exercise	417	339,610	Form 4
2026-06-25	Mo Luyi	officer	Option exercise	944	340,554	Form 4
2026-06-25	Mo Luyi	officer	Option exercise	417	339,610	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

27d remaining

2026-09-174% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i