Issued 2026-09-16 at $2.24 · now $2.24 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, PODC has typically landed between $1.63 and $3.25 — a range of −27.1% to +45.0% from the issuance price $2.24.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
737 overlapping 1 month windows · 2023-09-08 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($2.24) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where PODC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $2.24 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $2.24 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $2.23 (-0.6%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $1.91–$2.54
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $1.63–$3.25
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2023-09-08 | −58.5% | −59.5% | +0.0% |
| 2025-07-02 | −45.6% | −45.6% | +0.0% |
| 2023-09-11 | −45.1% | −46.9% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-04-07 | +82.7% | +0.0% | +82.7% |
| 2026-04-16 | +76.1% | +0.0% | +81.8% |
| 2026-04-17 | +75.7% | +0.0% | +75.7% |
737 overlapping windows · 2023-09-08 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~3 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | MERRIMAN D JONATHAN | director | Purchase | 15,700 @ $2.75 | $43K | +4.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 353,732 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | MERRIMAN D JONATHAN | director | Purchase | 11,300 @ $2.80 | $32K | +3.5% of holding | −18.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 338,032 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-14 | MERRIMAN D JONATHAN | director | Purchase | 17,000 @ $3.20 | $54K | +5.5% of holding | −25.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 326,732 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-22 | MERRIMAN D JONATHAN | director | Purchase | 7,000 @ $4.38 | $31K | +2.3% of holding | −8.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 309,732 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-17 | MERRIMAN D JONATHAN | director | Purchase | 6,200 @ $2.14 | $13K | +2.1% of holding | +71.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 302,732 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-17 | Carhart Ryan | officer | Purchase | 4,500 @ $2.24 | $10K | +68.6% of holding | +71.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,061 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-17 | MERRIMAN D JONATHAN | director | Purchase | 4,000 @ $2.07 | $8K | +1.4% of holding | +71.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 296,532 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-23 | MERRIMAN D JONATHAN | director | Purchase | 2,980 @ $2.35 | $7K | +1.0% of holding | +7.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 292,532 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | MERRIMAN D JONATHAN | director | Purchase | 6,300 @ $2.22 | $14K | +2.2% of holding | −2.8% | −5.0% | 289,552 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-16 | MERRIMAN D JONATHAN | director | Purchase | 6,100 @ $2.08 | $13K | +2.2% of holding | +13.9% | +78.0% | 283,252 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | MERRIMAN D JONATHAN | director | Purchase | 5,700 @ $2.16 | $12K | +2.1% of holding | +19.0% | +88.7% | 277,152 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-26 | MERRIMAN D JONATHAN | director | Purchase | 7,373 @ $2.47 | $18K | +2.8% of holding | −16.9% | +82.9% | 271,452 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-19 | MERRIMAN D JONATHAN | director | Purchase | 11,000 @ $2.20 | $24K | +4.3% of holding | −6.1% | +82.5% | 264,079 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-14 | MERRIMAN D JONATHAN | director | Purchase | 10,700 @ $2.16 | $23K | +4.4% of holding | −7.5% | +58.7% | 253,079 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-04 | MERRIMAN D JONATHAN | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $1.58 | $16K | +4.3% of holding | −0.9% | +41.4% | 242,379 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-22 | MERRIMAN D JONATHAN | director | Purchase | 11,100 @ $1.49 | $17K | +5.0% of holding | +19.7% | +70.8% | 232,379 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-21 | MERRIMAN D JONATHAN | director | Purchase | 5,700 @ $1.49 | $8K | +2.6% of holding | +18.1% | +54.3% | 221,279 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-31 | MERRIMAN D JONATHAN | director | Purchase | 5,200 @ $1.51 | $8K | +2.5% of holding | +31.9% | −15.4% | 215,579 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-28 | MERRIMAN D JONATHAN | director | Purchase | 4,500 @ $1.46 | $7K | +2.2% of holding | +16.8% | −8.9% | 210,379 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-27 | MERRIMAN D JONATHAN | director | Purchase | 3,200 @ $1.51 | $5K | +1.6% of holding | +16.9% | −5.9% | 205,879 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-18 | MERRIMAN D JONATHAN | director | Purchase | 7,000 @ $1.72 | $12K | +3.6% of holding | +21.8% | −12.4% | 202,679 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-10 | MERRIMAN D JONATHAN | director | Purchase | 5,200 @ $1.72 | $9K | ownership Δ n/a | −0.3% | −3.5% | 5,200 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-05 | MERRIMAN D JONATHAN | director | Purchase | 8,700 @ $1.87 | $16K | +4.7% of holding | +3.1% | −20.6% | 195,679 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-26 | MERRIMAN D JONATHAN | director | Purchase | 7,700 @ $1.80 | $14K | +4.3% of holding | −8.4% | −20.5% | 186,979 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-24 | MERRIMAN D JONATHAN | director | Purchase | 4,700 @ $2.00 | $9K | +2.7% of holding | −28.5% | −44.5% | 179,279 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-20 | MERRIMAN D JONATHAN | director | Purchase | 5,500 @ $2.10 | $12K | +3.3% of holding | −11.8% | −36.5% | 174,579 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
78 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-11 | LiveOne, Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Award / grant | 1,100,000 | 20,430,126 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | LiveOne, Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Option exercise | 1,100,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-06 | MERRIMAN D JONATHAN | director | Award / grant | 250,000 | 250,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Blackwood Carolyn | director | Option exercise | 32,911 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | MERRIMAN D JONATHAN | director | Option exercise | 32,911 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Arani Ramin | director | Option exercise | 38,396 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Wachsberger Patrick D | director | Option exercise | 34,740 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Berk James | director | Option exercise | 32,911 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | MERRIMAN D JONATHAN | director | Option exercise | 32,911 | 249,363 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Blackwood Carolyn | director | Option exercise | 32,911 | 55,493 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | MERRIMAN D JONATHAN | director | Option exercise | 32,911 | 249,363 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Wachsberger Patrick D | director | Option exercise | 34,740 | 84,604 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Blackwood Carolyn | director | Option exercise | 32,911 | 55,493 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Wachsberger Patrick D | director | Option exercise | 34,740 | 84,604 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Berk James | director | Option exercise | 32,911 | 109,581 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Arani Ramin | director | Option exercise | 38,396 | 93,509 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Berk James | director | Option exercise | 32,911 | 109,581 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Arani Ramin | director | Option exercise | 38,396 | 93,509 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-21 | LiveOne, Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Award / grant | 135,135 | 19,330,126 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-21 | LiveOne, Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Award / grant | 135,135 | 19,330,126 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | MERRIMAN D JONATHAN | director | Award / grant | 32,911 | 32,911 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Gray Christopher | officer | Award / grant | 50,000 | 50,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Krigsman Jay E. | director | Award / grant | 42,053 | 42,053 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Berk James | director | Award / grant | 32,911 | 32,911 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Arani Ramin | director | Award / grant | 38,396 | 38,396 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Wachsberger Patrick D | director | Award / grant | 34,740 | 34,740 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Blackwood Carolyn | director | Award / grant | 32,911 | 32,911 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-22 | LiveOne, Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Award / grant | 186,636 | 19,194,991 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-22 | LiveOne, Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Award / grant | 186,636 | 19,194,991 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-11 | LiveOne, Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Award / grant | 347,305 | 19,008,355 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-11 | LiveOne, Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Award / grant | 347,305 | 19,008,355 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-27 | McNamara Sue | officer | Award / grant | 150,000 | 150,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-27 | Gray Christopher | officer | Award / grant | 700,000 | 700,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-23 | Gray Christopher | officer | Award / grant | 100,000 | 100,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-11 | LiveOne, Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Award / grant | 237,113 | 18,661,050 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-11 | LiveOne, Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Award / grant | 237,113 | 18,661,050 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-26 | LiveOne, Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Award / grant | 550,000 | 18,423,937 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-26 | LiveOne, Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Award / grant | 550,000 | 18,423,937 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-10 | Berk James | director | Option exercise | 75,071 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-10 | Blackwood Carolyn | director | Option exercise | 22,582 | 0 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.