PNWPinnacle West Capital CorporationUtilities · Regulated Electricas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $94.99 · now $94.99 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, PNW has typically landed between $87.66 and $103.58 — a range of −7.7% to +9.0% from the issuance price $94.99.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($94.99) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where PNW has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $94.99 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$87.66worst · -7.7%$103.58best · +9.0%
  • now $94.99 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $95.93 (+1.0%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $92.32–$99.53
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $87.66–$103.58
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−39.3%−39.3%+0.0%
2020-02-18−35.6%−35.6%+1.8%
2020-02-20−35.2%−35.2%+2.5%
3 best
2020-03-23+23.3%+0.0%+30.7%
2022-10-12+23.1%+0.0%+23.1%
2020-03-18+21.9%−4.1%+25.4%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$12.9B
market cap
$5.36
EPS (TTM)
19.8
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-04
next earnings
Revenue$5.3B
'20'25
Net income$617M
'20'25
Free cash flow−$820M
'20'25
Net margin · by yr11.5%
'20'25
ROE · by yr8.7%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr2.53
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 32 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $94.99$-256.51$157.56
  • DCF (intrinsic)$-227.95
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 22.6× · n=32$121.00
  • Analyst target · range $97.00–$129.00$106.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$94.99

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
+1.4%
n=18
Feb
53%
−0.5%
n=19
Mar
79%
+2.9%
n=19
Apr
68%
+0.9%
n=19
May
47%
+0.3%
n=19
Jun
47%
+0.2%
n=19
Jul
74%
+3.3%
n=19
Aug
47%
−0.8%
n=19
Sep
53%
−1.1%
n=19
Oct
61%
+1.6%
n=18
Nov
61%
+2.3%
n=18
Dec
50%
+0.3%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$109$832026-08-10: 1 insider sale, $97K — Blankenship Elizabeth A2026-08-07: 1 insider sale, $184K — Esparza Jose Luis Jr2026-05-13: 2 insider sales, $650K — Tetlow Jacob …2025-08: 1 open-market sale, $600K2026-05: 2 open-market sales, $650K2026-08: 2 open-market sales, $281K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Blankenship Elizabeth A — Sale on 2026-08-10, filed 1 day after the tradeother Esparza Jose Luis Jr — Sale on 2026-08-07, filed 4 days after the tradeother Tetlow Jacob — Sale on 2026-05-13, filed 1 day after the tradeother Tetlow Jacob — Sale on 2026-05-13, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-10Blankenship Elizabeth AofficerSale980 @ $99.17$97K−8.3% of holding−0.7%not yet — horizon still open10,886Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-07Esparza Jose Luis JrotherSale1,800 @ $102.01$184K−26.8% of holding−2.0%not yet — horizon still open4,910Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-13Tetlow JacobotherSale6,526 @ $99.00$646K−49.4% of holding+4.5%not yet — horizon still open6,675Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-13Tetlow JacobotherSale41 @ $99.01$4K−0.6% of holding+4.5%not yet — horizon still open6,634Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-11Tetlow JacobotherSale6,496 @ $92.37$600K−99.1% of holding−7.8%−4.4%56Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-06Mountain Paul JofficerSale911 @ $93.91$86K−18.5% of holding−10.5%−24.0%4,013Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-06Mountain Paul JofficerSale592 @ $93.97$56K−14.8% of holding−10.5%−24.0%3,421Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

293 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-05-14SPENCE WILLIAM HdirectorAward / grant1,6656,291Form 4
2026-05-14Sims Paula JdirectorAward / grant1,66511,032Form 4
2026-05-14TREVATHAN JAMES E JRdirectorAward / grant1,6651,665Form 4
2026-05-14Butler Ronald JrdirectorAward / grant1,6651,665Form 4
2026-05-14de la Melena Gonzalo A JrdirectorAward / grant1,6651,665Form 4
2026-05-14BRYAN GLYNISdirectorAward / grant1,6651,665Form 4
2026-05-14EICHER CAROL SdirectorAward / grant1,6651,665Form 4
2026-05-14Flanagan Susan T.directorAward / grant1,6651,665Form 4
2026-05-14BRYAN GLYNISdirectorAward / grant1,6651,665Form 4
2026-05-14de la Melena Gonzalo A JrdirectorAward / grant1,6651,665Form 4
2026-05-14Svinicki Kristine LdirectorAward / grant1,6651,665Form 4
2026-05-14EICHER CAROL SdirectorAward / grant1,6651,665Form 4
2026-05-14Butler Ronald JrdirectorAward / grant1,6651,665Form 4
2026-05-14TREVATHAN JAMES E JRdirectorAward / grant1,6651,665Form 4
2026-03-18Geisler Theodore NdirectorWithheld for tax8,95412,436Form 4
2026-03-18Heflin Adam CotherWithheld for tax8,36439,471Form 4
2026-03-18Tetlow JacobotherWithheld for tax7,88013,201Form 4
2026-03-18Cooper Andrew DofficerWithheld for tax6,70429,053Form 4
2026-03-18Geisler Theodore NdirectorDisposition2,89721,390Form 4
2026-03-18Heflin Adam CotherDisposition2,64247,835Form 4
2026-03-18Tetlow JacobotherDisposition2,49021,081Form 4
2026-03-18Cooper Andrew DofficerDisposition2,16035,757Form 4
2026-03-18Esparza Jose Luis JrotherWithheld for tax1,4026,648Form 4
2026-03-18Baum Shirley AofficerWithheld for tax1,0525,846Form 4
2026-03-18Blankenship Elizabeth AofficerWithheld for tax73311,866Form 4
2026-03-18Esparza Jose Luis JrotherDisposition4438,050Form 4
2026-03-18Blankenship Elizabeth AofficerDisposition37312,599Form 4
2026-03-18Baum Shirley AofficerDisposition3276,898Form 4
2026-03-18Baum Shirley AofficerAward / grant2,7817,225Form 4
2026-03-18Heflin Adam CotherAward / grant22,15750,477Form 4
2026-03-18Blankenship Elizabeth AofficerAward / grant3,09812,972Form 4
2026-03-18Tetlow JacobotherAward / grant20,87923,571Form 4
2026-03-18Esparza Jose Luis JrotherAward / grant3,7128,493Form 4
2026-03-18Cooper Andrew DofficerAward / grant18,17737,917Form 4
2026-03-18Geisler Theodore NdirectorAward / grant24,28724,287Form 4
2026-03-18Geisler Theodore NdirectorGift12,4360Form 4
2026-03-18Geisler Theodore NdirectorGift12,43650,003Form 4
2026-03-18Geisler Theodore NdirectorGift12,4360Form 4
2026-03-18Geisler Theodore NdirectorGift12,43650,003Form 4
2026-02-20Geisler Theodore NdirectorWithheld for tax9895,319Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Donna ShalalaHousepurchase2020-04-272019-04-03$1–15K
Donna ShalalaHousesale2020-04-272019-06-24$1–15K
Donna ShalalaHousepurchase2020-04-272019-03-19$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2020-04-202020-03-24$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2020-02-102020-01-08$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2018-07-112018-06-15$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2018-03-092018-03-05$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.