Issued 2026-09-16 at $231.49 · now $231.49 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, PNC has typically landed between $205.22 and $260.89 — a range of −11.3% to +12.7% from the issuance price $231.49.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($231.49) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where PNC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $231.49 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $231.49 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $233.39 (+0.8%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $220.69–$246.09
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $205.22–$260.89
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-12-17 | −51.5% | −51.5% | +6.5% |
| 2020-02-21 | −47.6% | −47.6% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-18 | −42.2% | −42.2% | +2.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2009-03-06 | +82.7% | +0.0% | +93.4% |
| 2009-03-05 | +78.9% | −7.5% | +78.9% |
| 2009-04-08 | +65.9% | +0.0% | +65.9% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$100.1B
market cap
$18.17
EPS (TTM)
13.8
P/E (TTM)
2026-10-15
next earnings
Revenue$31.3B
'20'25
Net income$6.9B
'20'25
Free cash flow$4.4B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr22.1%
'20'25
ROE · by yr11.4%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.94
'20'25
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 69 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$128.97
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 16.4× · n=69$297.66
- Analyst target · range $257.00–$305.00$280.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$231.49
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
61%
−0.0%
n=18
Feb
42%
−1.3%
n=19
Mar
58%
−0.3%
n=19
Apr
63%
+4.3%
n=19
May
58%
+0.7%
n=19
Jun
37%
−1.6%
n=19
Jul
74%
+3.9%
n=19
Aug
47%
−0.7%
n=19
Sep
53%
+1.0%
n=19
Oct
72%
+1.4%
n=18
Nov
78%
+5.0%
n=18
Dec
67%
+1.7%
n=18
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 | Juchno Stacy M. | officer | Sale | 3,354 @ $255.84 | $858K | −15.1% of holding | −2.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 18,800 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-22 | Deborah Guild | officer | Sale | 1,200 @ $252.19 | $303K | −3.2% of holding | −6.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 36,527 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Thomas Michael Duane | officer | Sale | 1,500 @ $238.14 | $357K | −22.9% of holding | +4.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,059 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-08 | Overstrom Alexander E. C. | officer | Sale | 1,500 @ $227.97 | $342K | −7.1% of holding | +8.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 19,620 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-05 | Novosel Stephanie | officer | Sale | 1,800 @ $228.73 | $412K | −36.7% of holding | +6.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,107 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Feldstein Andrew T | director | Sale | 23,000 @ $220.57 | $5.1M | −48.8% of holding | +13.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 24,149 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Feldstein Andrew T | director | Sale | 18,000 @ $220.57 | $4.0M | −27.0% of holding | +13.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 48,610 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Feldstein Andrew T | director | Sale | 4,000 @ $220.57 | $882K | −27.1% of holding | +13.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,749 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | Medler Linda R | director | Purchase | 20 @ $200.38 | $4K | ownership Δ n/a | +7.6% | +6.6% | 20 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-20 | DEMCHAK WILLIAM S | director | Sale | 50,000 @ $230.88 | $11.5M | −8.3% of holding | −7.8% | −5.7% | 554,274 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | Cestello Louis Robert | officer | Sale | 4,279 @ $234.01 | $1.0M | −18.5% of holding | −9.3% | −5.1% | 18,867 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-18 | Overstrom Alexander E. C. | officer | Sale | 2,500 @ $233.91 | $585K | −10.6% of holding | −9.3% | −5.1% | 21,120 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-17 | Bynum Richard Kevin | officer | Sale | 6,407 @ $230.95 | $1.5M | −68.5% of holding | −9.9% | −1.3% | 2,942 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Bynum Richard Kevin | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $231.15 | $231K | −34.0% of holding | −9.9% | −1.3% | 1,942 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-04 | Thomas Michael Duane | officer | Sale | 700 @ $183.54 | $128K | −10.3% of holding | +7.0% | +12.8% | 6,102 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-04 | Thomas Michael Duane | officer | Sale | 300 @ $183.65 | $55K | −4.9% of holding | +7.0% | +12.8% | 5,802 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-24 | Deborah Guild | officer | Sale | 1,080 @ $186.97 | $202K | −3.8% of holding | +2.4% | +14.6% | 27,335 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-27 | Medler Linda R | director | Sale | 71 @ $205.55 | $15K | −100.0% of holding | −4.0% | −1.9% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-13 | Parsley E William III | officer | Sale | 7,665 @ $176.00 | $1.3M | −3.7% of holding | +8.0% | +8.8% | 198,347 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-06 | DEMCHAK WILLIAM S | director | Sale | 1,242 @ $177.63 | $221K | −0.2% of holding | +5.3% | −2.4% | 552,395 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-30 | DEMCHAK WILLIAM S | director | Sale | 1,242 @ $174.92 | $217K | −0.2% of holding | +5.7% | −4.9% | 553,637 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-23 | DEMCHAK WILLIAM S | director | Sale | 1,242 @ $169.75 | $211K | −0.2% of holding | +1.1% | −3.7% | 554,879 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-20 | Wiedman Mark | officer | Purchase | 20 @ $178.40 | $4K | ownership Δ n/a | −0.6% | −8.7% | 20 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-16 | DEMCHAK WILLIAM S | director | Sale | 1,242 @ $179.14 | $222K | −0.2% of holding | −4.0% | −9.3% | 556,121 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-12 | Fallon Kieran John | officer | Sale | 1,492 @ $174.56 | $260K | −6.8% of holding | −1.6% | −9.9% | 20,490 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-09 | DEMCHAK WILLIAM S | director | Sale | 1,242 @ $166.79 | $207K | −0.2% of holding | +0.9% | −6.9% | 557,363 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-02 | DEMCHAK WILLIAM S | director | Sale | 1,242 @ $163.16 | $203K | −0.2% of holding | +1.3% | −8.8% | 558,605 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-28 | DEMCHAK WILLIAM S | director | Sale | 601 @ $160.00 | $96K | −0.1% of holding | +2.3% | −7.2% | 559,847 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-25 | Pfinsgraff Martin | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $158.22 | $158K | +99.1% of holding | +3.9% | −3.9% | 2,009 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-25 | DEMCHAK WILLIAM S | director | Sale | 641 @ $158.45 | $102K | −0.1% of holding | +3.9% | −3.9% | 560,448 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-23 | DEMCHAK WILLIAM S | director | Sale | 1,202 @ $160.00 | $192K | −0.2% of holding | +1.0% | −8.3% | 561,089 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-21 | DEMCHAK WILLIAM S | director | Sale | 641 @ $150.50 | $96K | −0.1% of holding | +2.9% | −7.9% | 562,291 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-11 | DEMCHAK WILLIAM S | director | Sale | 641 @ $150.63 | $97K | −0.1% of holding | +8.1% | +0.5% | 562,932 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-09 | DEMCHAK WILLIAM S | director | Sale | 601 @ $160.00 | $96K | −0.1% of holding | +2.1% | −1.8% | 563,573 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-04 | DEMCHAK WILLIAM S | director | Sale | 641 @ $155.27 | $100K | −0.1% of holding | −2.7% | −3.5% | 564,174 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-28 | DEMCHAK WILLIAM S | director | Sale | 1,242 @ $174.78 | $217K | −0.2% of holding | −5.3% | −0.4% | 564,815 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-21 | DEMCHAK WILLIAM S | director | Sale | 1,242 @ $172.00 | $214K | −0.2% of holding | −3.6% | +0.3% | 566,057 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-14 | DEMCHAK WILLIAM S | director | Sale | 1,242 @ $171.15 | $213K | −0.2% of holding | −6.3% | +1.1% | 567,299 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-07 | DEMCHAK WILLIAM S | director | Sale | 1,242 @ $178.83 | $222K | −0.2% of holding | −2.8% | +2.2% | 568,541 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-28 | DEMCHAK WILLIAM S | director | Sale | 1,242 @ $190.18 | $236K | −0.2% of holding | −2.8% | +0.9% | 569,783 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-21 | DEMCHAK WILLIAM S | director | Sale | 1,242 @ $192.45 | $239K | −0.2% of holding | −2.1% | +1.1% | 571,025 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-14 | DEMCHAK WILLIAM S | director | Sale | 1,242 @ $196.14 | $244K | −0.2% of holding | −2.6% | −5.2% | 526,269 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
258 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | Deborah Guild | officer | Gift | 72 | 36,455 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Feldstein Andrew T | director | Award / grant | 392 | 21,216 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | CAFARO DEBRA A | director | Award / grant | 303 | 9,640 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Khator Renu | director | Award / grant | 204 | 3,627 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Salesky Bryan Scott | director | Award / grant | 184 | 2,372 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | HESSE DANIEL | director | Award / grant | 156 | 5,061 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | NIBLOCK ROBERT A | director | Award / grant | 102 | 2,011 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | HARSHMAN RICHARD J | director | Award / grant | 91 | 2,288 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Dachille Douglas A. | director | Award / grant | 51 | 274 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-22 | Feldstein Andrew T | director | Award / grant | 844 | 12,562 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-22 | Medler Linda R | director | Award / grant | 844 | 10,982 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-22 | ALVARADO JOSEPH | director | Award / grant | 844 | 9,691 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-22 | NIBLOCK ROBERT A | director | Award / grant | 844 | 5,701 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-22 | Salesky Bryan Scott | director | Award / grant | 844 | 5,701 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-22 | Pfinsgraff Martin | director | Award / grant | 844 | 10,982 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-22 | CAFARO DEBRA A | director | Award / grant | 844 | 10,982 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-22 | HARSHMAN RICHARD J | director | Award / grant | 844 | 9,691 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-22 | HESSE DANIEL | director | Award / grant | 844 | 12,562 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-22 | Khator Renu | director | Award / grant | 844 | 4,691 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-22 | Dachille Douglas A. | director | Award / grant | 844 | 2,080 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-22 | Cheshire Marjorie Rodgers | director | Award / grant | 844 | 12,562 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-17 | Wiedman Mark | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,071 | 2,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-17 | Wiedman Mark | officer | Award / grant | 4,551 | 4,571 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Feldstein Andrew T | director | Award / grant | 185 | 20,664 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | CAFARO DEBRA A | director | Award / grant | 126 | 9,265 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Khator Renu | director | Award / grant | 126 | 3,397 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Salesky Bryan Scott | director | Award / grant | 125 | 2,171 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | HESSE DANIEL | director | Award / grant | 69 | 4,868 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | NIBLOCK ROBERT A | director | Award / grant | 62 | 1,894 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | HARSHMAN RICHARD J | director | Award / grant | 32 | 2,181 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Dachille Douglas A. | director | Award / grant | 31 | 221 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-23 | Deborah Guild | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,376 | 37,727 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-23 | Deborah Guild | officer | Award / grant | 3,162 | 39,103 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | DEMCHAK WILLIAM S | director | Withheld for tax | 5,125 | 604,274 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | DEMCHAK WILLIAM S | director | Award / grant | 11,897 | 609,399 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | Juchno Stacy M. | officer | Gift | 867 | 22,154 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | DEMCHAK WILLIAM S | director | Withheld for tax | 4,626 | 597,502 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | Reilly Robert Q | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,037 | 181,088 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | Reilly Robert Q | officer | Withheld for tax | 929 | 182,476 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | Overstrom Alexander E. C. | officer | Withheld for tax | 819 | 22,973 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | sale | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $50–100K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-02 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-15 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-01 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-13 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-24 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-10 | $1–15K |
| Shelley Moore Capito | Senate | purchase | 2026-04-04 | 2026-03-12 | $1–15K |
| Julia Letlow | House | purchase | 2026-01-13 | 2024-10-23 | $1–15K |
| Julie Johnson | House | sale | 2025-11-14 | 2025-10-21 | $1–15K |
| Valerie Hoyle | House | sale | 2025-10-10 | 2025-09-23 | $1–15K |
| Valerie Hoyle | House | purchase | 2025-09-12 | 2024-10-29 | $1–15K |
| Julie Johnson | House | sale | 2025-09-11 | 2025-08-14 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.