PNBK · TickerCove

PNBKPatriot National Bancorp, Inc.Financial Services · Banks - Regionalas of 2026-09-14

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-14 at $1.11 · now $0.92 (2026-09-16, −17.1% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-14 close, PNBK has typically landed between $0.85 and $1.56 — a range of −23.7% to +40.1% from the issuance price $1.11.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

4,999 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-08 – 2026-08-13 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 54.0% (90% CI 51.9–56.1%, ≈1,519 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-14 issuance close ($1.11) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-13, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$0.9201 · 0% of range

$0.9201 low$1.92 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,519 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

54.0%

90% CI 51.9%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−4.4%

typical move · IQR 17.2%

−23.7%worst (p90)+40.1%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where PNBK has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-14 close of $1.11 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $0.9201 (-17.1%)
typical $1.06 (-4.4%)
middle 50% $0.966–$1.16
90% range $0.8474–$1.56

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,001 windows spanning 2006-09-08 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2025-05-14	−84.3%	−84.3%	+0.0%
2025-05-16	−84.2%	−84.2%	+4.0%
2025-05-13	−83.6%	−83.6%	+0.0%
3 best
2025-04-10	+397.0%	+0.0%	+397.0%
2025-04-11	+347.2%	+0.0%	+366.0%
2025-04-09	+285.0%	−3.6%	+285.0%

5,001 overlapping windows · 2006-09-08 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

60%

+2.4%

n=20

Feb

30%

−5.1%

n=20

Mar

55%

−3.5%

n=20

Apr

30%

+12.8%

n=20

May

45%

−8.8%

n=20

Jun

35%

−1.6%

n=20

Jul

60%

+3.7%

n=20

Aug

45%

−1.2%

n=20

Sep

35%

−2.7%

n=20

Oct

40%

−2.9%

n=20

Nov

40%

−0.0%

n=20

Dec

45%

−2.0%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-08	De Tomasi Mario	director	Purchase	63,000 @ $0.96	$60K	+30.0% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	272,941	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-27	De Tomasi Mario	director	Purchase	85,000 @ $0.96	$82K	+82.8% of holding	−3.4%	not yet — horizon still open	187,719	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-20	De Tomasi Mario	director	Purchase	87,719 @ $1.15	$101K	+584.8% of holding	−6.0%	not yet — horizon still open	102,719	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-03	Magzanyan Anahit	director	Purchase	400	—	+10.3% of holding	−1.1%	−32.3%	4,290	Form 4 · filed 52 days after the trade
2026-03-03	Magzanyan Anahit	director	Purchase	400	—	+10.3% of holding	−1.1%	−32.3%	4,290	Form 4 · filed 52 days after the trade
2025-08-19	Magzanyan Anahit	director	Purchase	500	—	+14.7% of holding	−11.7%	−21.4%	3,890	Form 4 · filed 248 days after the trade
2025-08-19	Magzanyan Anahit	director	Purchase	500	—	+14.7% of holding	−11.7%	−21.4%	3,890	Form 4 · filed 248 days after the trade
2025-07-24	Magzanyan Anahit	director	Purchase	175	—	+5.4% of holding	+10.0%	−6.0%	3,390	Form 4 · filed 274 days after the trade
2025-07-24	Magzanyan Anahit	director	Purchase	175	—	+5.4% of holding	+10.0%	−6.0%	3,390	Form 4 · filed 274 days after the trade
2025-07-17	Magzanyan Anahit	director	Purchase	375	—	+13.2% of holding	+5.0%	−0.7%	3,215	Form 4 · filed 281 days after the trade
2025-07-17	Magzanyan Anahit	director	Purchase	375	—	+13.2% of holding	+5.0%	−0.7%	3,215	Form 4 · filed 281 days after the trade
2025-05-13	Carrazza Michael A.	director	Purchase	865,990 @ $0.75	$649K	ownership Δ n/a	−86.5%	−101.0%	865,990	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-20	Sugarman Steven	director	Purchase	7,019,978 @ $0.75	$5.3M	ownership Δ n/a	+200.8%	+7.5%	7,019,978	Form 4 · filed 12 days after the trade
2025-03-20	Sugarman Steven	director	Purchase	19,167	—	ownership Δ n/a	+200.8%	+7.5%	19,167	Form 4 · filed 12 days after the trade
2025-03-20	Sugarman Steven	director	Purchase	19,167	—	ownership Δ n/a	+200.8%	+7.5%	19,167	Form 4 · filed 12 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

58 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-26	Sugarman Steven	director	Award / grant	28,857	1,280,915	Form 4
2026-07-29	Roth Jonathan Paul	director	Award / grant	66,372	91,524	Form 4
2026-07-29	Magzanyan Anahit	director	Award / grant	88,496	132,941	Form 4
2026-07-29	De Tomasi Mario	director	Award / grant	88,496	132,941	Form 4
2026-07-29	Constantino Edward N.	director	Award / grant	88,496	132,941	Form 4
2026-07-01	Sugarman Steven	director	Withheld for tax	303,861	2,338,109	Form 4
2026-07-01	Seabold Jeffrey T	director	Option exercise	133,333	266,667	Form 4
2026-07-01	Roth Jonathan Paul	director	Option exercise	12,575	13,825	Form 4
2026-07-01	Roth Jonathan Paul	director	Option exercise	12,575	25,152	Form 4
2026-07-01	Sugarman Steven	director	Option exercise	552,927	2,641,970	Form 4
2026-07-01	Sugarman Steven	director	Option exercise	552,927	1,252,058	Form 4
2026-07-01	Seabold Jeffrey T	director	Option exercise	133,333	133,583	Form 4
2026-07-01	Constantino Edward N.	director	Option exercise	22,222	42,542	Form 4
2026-07-01	Constantino Edward N.	director	Option exercise	22,222	44,445	Form 4
2026-07-01	De Tomasi Mario	director	Option exercise	22,222	209,941	Form 4
2026-07-01	De Tomasi Mario	director	Option exercise	22,222	44,445	Form 4
2026-07-01	Magzanyan Anahit	director	Option exercise	22,222	26,512	Form 4
2026-07-01	Magzanyan Anahit	director	Option exercise	22,222	44,445	Form 4
2026-05-20	Simmons William Paul	officer	Award / grant	74,983	741,650	Form 4
2026-05-20	Salas Carlos P	director	Award / grant	74,983	741,650	Form 4
2026-05-20	Sugarman Steven	director	Award / grant	104,452	1,804,985	Form 4
2026-05-20	Sugarman Steven	director	Award / grant	575	1,700,533	Form 4
2026-04-30	Simmons William Paul	officer	Withheld for tax	121,776	211,557	Form 4
2026-04-30	Salas Carlos P	director	Withheld for tax	121,776	211,557	Form 4
2026-04-30	Miranda Angie	officer	Withheld for tax	56,718	93,282	Form 4
2026-04-30	Simmons William Paul	officer	Option exercise	333,333	333,333	Form 4
2026-04-30	Salas Carlos P	director	Option exercise	333,333	333,333	Form 4
2026-04-30	Miranda Angie	officer	Option exercise	150,000	300,000	Form 4
2026-04-30	Miranda Angie	officer	Option exercise	150,000	150,000	Form 4
2026-04-30	Simmons William Paul	officer	Option exercise	333,333	666,667	Form 4
2026-04-30	Salas Carlos P	director	Option exercise	333,333	666,667	Form 4
2026-03-25	Sugarman Steven	director	Option exercise	4,049,593	—	Form 4
2026-03-25	Sugarman Steven	director	Option exercise	4,049,593	—	Form 4
2026-03-25	Sugarman Steven	director	Option exercise	2,089,043	2,089,043	Form 4
2026-03-25	Sugarman Steven	director	Option exercise	2,089,043	2,089,043	Form 4
2025-10-20	Sugarman Steven	director	Award / grant	1,147,031	5,749,551	Form 4
2025-10-16	Sugarman Steven	director	Option exercise	2,000,000	0	Form 4
2025-10-16	Sugarman Steven	director	Option exercise	2,000,000	9,019,978	Form 4
2025-10-16	Sugarman Steven	director	Option exercise	2,000,000	9,019,978	Form 4
2025-10-16	Sugarman Steven	director	Option exercise	2,000,000	0	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

26d remaining

2026-09-1510% elapsed2026-10-13

Logged immutably 2026-09-15; scored automatically on 2026-10-13 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i