PMPhilip Morris International Inc.Consumer Defensive · Tobaccoas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $191.71 · now $191.71 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, PM has typically landed between $175.46 and $213.58 — a range of −8.5% to +11.4% from the issuance price $191.71.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,634 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-03-17 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($191.71) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where PM has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $191.71 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$175.46worst · -8.5%$213.58best · +11.4%
  • now $191.71 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $193.72 (+1.0%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $184.65–$202.78
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $175.46–$213.58
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,634 windows spanning 2008-03-17 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−31.9%−31.9%+0.0%
2020-02-20−28.9%−28.9%+2.5%
2008-09-10−27.9%−27.9%+1.3%
3 best
2025-01-13+27.5%+0.0%+27.5%
2025-01-15+27.0%+0.0%+27.0%
2025-01-10+26.3%+0.0%+26.3%

4,634 overlapping windows · 2008-03-17 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$300.8B
market cap
$6.96
EPS (TTM)
27.7
P/E (TTM)
2026-10-21
next earnings
Revenue$40.6B
'20'25
Net income$11.3B
'20'25
Free cash flow$10.7B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr27.9%
'20'25
ROE · by yr-113.5%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr-4.89
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 28 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $191.71$166.06$225.07
  • DCF (intrinsic)$190.12
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 24.4× · n=28$170.13
  • Analyst target · range $182.00–$221.00$210.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$191.71

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
+0.6%
n=18
Feb
67%
+4.1%
n=18
Mar
72%
+1.5%
n=18
Apr
74%
+1.6%
n=19
May
58%
+0.9%
n=19
Jun
58%
+0.6%
n=19
Jul
74%
+3.8%
n=19
Aug
42%
−1.4%
n=19
Sep
42%
−0.7%
n=19
Oct
50%
+1.8%
n=18
Nov
50%
+0.5%
n=18
Dec
78%
+1.1%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$200$1412026-02-20: 3 insider sales, $3.7M — Kennedy Stacey, Dobrowolski Reginaldo …2026-02-19: 4 insider sales, $25.1M — Olczak Jacek, Babeau Emmanuel, De Wilde Frederic, Guerin Yann2026-02: 7 open-market sales, $28.8M↑ buys↓ salesofficer Kennedy Stacey — Sale on 2026-02-20, filed same dayofficer Dobrowolski Reginaldo — Sale on 2026-02-20, filed same dayofficer Dobrowolski Reginaldo — Sale on 2026-02-20, filed same daydirector Olczak Jacek — Sale on 2026-02-19, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Babeau Emmanuel — Sale on 2026-02-19, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer De Wilde Frederic — Sale on 2026-02-19, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Guerin Yann — Sale on 2026-02-19, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-02-20Kennedy StaceyofficerSale14,350 @ $183.13$2.6M−24.1% of holding−5.5%−7.2%45,301Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-20Dobrowolski ReginaldoofficerSale5,000 @ $183.46$917K−19.1% of holding−5.5%−7.2%21,182Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-20Dobrowolski ReginaldoofficerSale1,000 @ $183.58$184K−12.1% of holding−5.5%−7.2%7,254Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-19Olczak JacekdirectorSale80,000 @ $182.18$14.6M−11.2% of holding−5.3%−5.8%632,344Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-19Babeau EmmanuelofficerSale33,800 @ $181.61$6.1M−17.0% of holding−5.3%−5.8%164,463Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-19De Wilde FredericofficerSale20,000 @ $182.58$3.7M−13.0% of holding−5.3%−5.8%133,513Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-19Guerin YannofficerSale4,000 @ $181.69$727K−10.4% of holding−5.3%−5.8%34,412Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-06Dahlgren LarsofficerSale3,679 @ $152.96$563K−12.1% of holding+10.5%−6.8%26,828Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-24Andolina MassimoofficerSale17,500 @ $156.05$2.7M−16.8% of holding+1.6%+0.6%86,737Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-20Calantzopoulos AndredirectorSale40,643 @ $149.06$6.1M−6.8% of holding+8.1%+12.3%561,349Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-20Olczak JacekdirectorSale40,000 @ $148.87$6.0M−6.8% of holding+8.1%+12.3%547,426Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-20Babeau EmmanuelofficerSale30,000 @ $148.85$4.5M−17.7% of holding+8.1%+12.3%139,105Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-20Barth WernerofficerSale10,000 @ $148.67$1.5M−8.6% of holding+8.1%+12.3%106,244Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-20Guerin YannofficerSale2,500 @ $151.28$378K−7.6% of holding+8.1%+12.3%30,308Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-12Dobrowolski ReginaldoofficerSale5,000 @ $149.88$749K−19.4% of holding+8.0%+4.5%20,799Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-12Dobrowolski ReginaldoofficerSale3,000 @ $149.41$448K−28.3% of holding+8.0%+4.5%7,596Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-07De Wilde FredericofficerSale15,000 @ $144.54$2.2M−10.4% of holding+12.8%+13.4%128,909Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

78 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-05-06Yanai ShlomodirectorAward / grant1,11910,120Form 4
2026-05-06Calantzopoulos AndredirectorAward / grant1,119588,782Form 4
2026-05-06Bough BonindirectorAward / grant1,11911,297Form 4
2026-05-06Polet RobertdirectorAward / grant1,11929,765Form 4
2026-05-06Harker Victoria DdirectorAward / grant1,1194,537Form 4
2026-05-06Combes MicheldirectorAward / grant1,11911,643Form 4
2026-05-06Hook LisadirectorAward / grant1,11920,060Form 4
2026-05-06Morparia KalpanadirectorAward / grant1,11928,236Form 4
2026-05-06Geissler WernerdirectorAward / grant1,11998,356Form 4
2026-03-06Dobrowolski ReginaldoofficerWithheld for tax227,232Form 4
2026-02-18Calantzopoulos AndredirectorWithheld for tax14,740587,663Form 4
2026-02-18Olczak JacekdirectorWithheld for tax6,121712,344Form 4
2026-02-18Kennedy StaceyofficerWithheld for tax4,32459,651Form 4
2026-02-18Babeau EmmanuelofficerWithheld for tax2,228198,263Form 4
2026-02-18De Wilde FredericofficerWithheld for tax1,000153,513Form 4
2026-02-18Dobrowolski ReginaldoofficerWithheld for tax21026,182Form 4
2026-02-18Guerin YannofficerWithheld for tax17638,412Form 4
2026-02-18Dobrowolski ReginaldoofficerWithheld for tax408,254Form 4
2026-02-06Olczak JacekdirectorAward / grant33,460718,465Form 4
2026-02-06Babeau EmmanuelofficerAward / grant11,340200,491Form 4
2026-02-06De Wilde FredericofficerAward / grant10,640154,513Form 4
2026-02-06Guerin YannofficerAward / grant5,05038,588Form 4
2026-02-06Kennedy StaceyofficerAward / grant4,43063,975Form 4
2026-02-06Dobrowolski ReginaldoofficerAward / grant1,96026,392Form 4
2026-02-06Dobrowolski ReginaldoofficerAward / grant7408,294Form 4
2026-02-05Olczak JacekdirectorAward / grant137,579685,005Form 4
2026-02-05Kennedy StaceyofficerAward / grant11,78059,545Form 4
2026-02-05Calantzopoulos AndredirectorAward / grant40,052602,403Form 4
2026-02-05De Wilde FredericofficerAward / grant22,439143,873Form 4
2026-02-05Guerin YannofficerAward / grant3,23033,538Form 4
2026-02-05Babeau EmmanuelofficerAward / grant50,046189,151Form 4
2026-02-05Dobrowolski ReginaldoofficerAward / grant3,83824,432Form 4
2025-05-07Bough BonindirectorAward / grant1,0029,834Form 4
2025-05-07Temperley DessislavadirectorAward / grant1,0027,756Form 4
2025-05-07Calantzopoulos AndredirectorAward / grant1,002562,351Form 4
2025-05-07Polet RobertdirectorAward / grant1,00228,646Form 4
2025-05-07Yanai ShlomodirectorAward / grant1,0028,759Form 4
2025-05-07Combes MicheldirectorAward / grant1,00210,204Form 4
2025-05-07Hook LisadirectorAward / grant1,00218,303Form 4
2025-05-07Morparia KalpanadirectorAward / grant1,00227,117Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-07-062026-06-02$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-06-092026-05-01$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-05-112026-04-13$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-05-112026-04-24$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-04-072026-03-20$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-04-072026-03-23$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-04-072026-03-20$1–15K
Julia LetlowHousesale2026-03-122026-02-05$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-03-092026-02-05$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-03-092026-02-24$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-02-062026-01-13$15–50K
Julie JohnsonHousesale2026-01-152025-12-18$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.