Issued 2026-09-16 at $92.37 · now $92.37 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, PLUS has typically landed between $79.77 and $108.25 — a range of −13.6% to +17.2% from the issuance price $92.37.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($92.37) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where PLUS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $92.37 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $92.37 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $92.89 (+0.6%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $86.67–$99.1
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $79.77–$108.25
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-18 | −47.1% | −47.1% | +0.5% |
| 2020-02-21 | −46.3% | −47.0% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-20 | −45.1% | −47.3% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2008-03-28 | +51.2% | +0.0% | +51.2% |
| 2008-03-31 | +44.9% | +0.0% | +47.7% |
| 2008-03-19 | +44.2% | −2.8% | +44.2% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | RAIGUEL DARREN S | officer | Sale | 470 @ $93.11 | $44K | −0.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 67,182 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | RAIGUEL DARREN S | officer | Sale | 384 @ $93.18 | $36K | −0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 67,652 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Callies John E | director | Sale | 499 @ $88.08 | $44K | −2.4% of holding | +6.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 20,649 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Callies John E | director | Sale | 1 @ $88.85 | $89 | −0.0% of holding | +6.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 20,648 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | RAIGUEL DARREN S | officer | Sale | 599 @ $91.09 | $55K | −0.9% of holding | −0.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 68,036 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | RAIGUEL DARREN S | officer | Sale | 401 @ $90.44 | $36K | −0.6% of holding | −0.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 68,635 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Marion Elaine D | officer | Sale | 3,504 @ $96.61 | $339K | −4.0% of holding | −9.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 84,869 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Marion Elaine D | officer | Sale | 1,400 @ $95.49 | $134K | −1.6% of holding | −9.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 88,373 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Marion Elaine D | officer | Sale | 610 @ $97.40 | $59K | −0.7% of holding | −9.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 84,259 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | RAIGUEL DARREN S | officer | Sale | 200 @ $98.00 | $20K | −0.3% of holding | −9.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 69,036 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Marion Elaine D | officer | Sale | 1,668 @ $95.12 | $159K | −1.8% of holding | −8.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 89,773 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-29 | Marion Elaine D | officer | Sale | 2,394 @ $95.22 | $228K | −2.6% of holding | −11.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 91,441 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-29 | RAIGUEL DARREN S | officer | Sale | 931 @ $93.44 | $87K | −1.3% of holding | −11.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 70,240 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-29 | RAIGUEL DARREN S | officer | Sale | 817 @ $94.47 | $77K | −1.2% of holding | −11.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 69,423 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-29 | Marion Elaine D | officer | Sale | 424 @ $95.25 | $40K | −100.0% of holding | −11.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-29 | RAIGUEL DARREN S | officer | Sale | 187 @ $95.35 | $18K | −0.3% of holding | −11.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 69,236 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-28 | RAIGUEL DARREN S | officer | Sale | 65 @ $93.11 | $6K | −0.1% of holding | −10.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 71,171 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | RAIGUEL DARREN S | officer | Sale | 450 @ $90.14 | $41K | −0.8% of holding | −4.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 55,924 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | RAIGUEL DARREN S | officer | Sale | 374 @ $88.85 | $33K | −0.7% of holding | −4.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 56,374 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | RAIGUEL DARREN S | officer | Sale | 176 @ $91.78 | $16K | −0.3% of holding | −4.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 55,748 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-08 | RAIGUEL DARREN S | officer | Sale | 157 @ $89.37 | $14K | −0.3% of holding | −9.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 56,804 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-08 | RAIGUEL DARREN S | officer | Sale | 71 @ $88.50 | $6K | −0.1% of holding | −9.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 56,961 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-08 | RAIGUEL DARREN S | officer | Sale | 56 @ $90.20 | $5K | −0.1% of holding | −9.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 56,748 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-06 | RAIGUEL DARREN S | officer | Sale | 5 @ $88.00 | $440 | −0.0% of holding | −1.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 57,032 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | RAIGUEL DARREN S | officer | Sale | 236 @ $88.47 | $21K | −0.4% of holding | −7.7% | −8.8% | 57,112 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | RAIGUEL DARREN S | officer | Sale | 75 @ $89.39 | $7K | −0.1% of holding | −7.7% | −8.8% | 57,037 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-09 | RAIGUEL DARREN S | officer | Sale | 400 @ $88.05 | $35K | −0.7% of holding | −9.9% | −9.3% | 57,348 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-08 | Callies John E | director | Sale | 560 @ $90.03 | $50K | −2.5% of holding | −5.0% | −13.1% | 21,428 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
83 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-06 | Lutz John Mark | director | Award / grant | 309 | 309 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-02 | MARRON MARK P | director | Other acquisition | 25,562 | 169,360 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-02 | BOWEN BRUCE M | director | Other acquisition | 792 | 1,478 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-02 | BOWEN BRUCE M | director | Other acquisition | 792 | 14,205 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-02 | Marion Elaine D | officer | Other acquisition | 15,214 | 34,801 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-02 | Marion Elaine D | officer | Other acquisition | 15,214 | 93,835 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-02 | MARRON MARK P | director | Other acquisition | 25,562 | 56,713 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-02 | RAIGUEL DARREN S | officer | Other acquisition | 15,488 | 35,427 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-02 | RAIGUEL DARREN S | officer | Other acquisition | 15,488 | 71,236 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | BOWEN BRUCE M | director | Award / grant | 261 | 2,270 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | RAIGUEL DARREN S | officer | Award / grant | 70 | 50,915 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Stoecker Erica Steinacker | officer | Award / grant | 7 | 7,397 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | MARRON MARK P | director | Withheld for tax | 4,488 | 55,798 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | RAIGUEL DARREN S | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,019 | 34,598 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Marion Elaine D | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,794 | 33,768 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | MARRON MARK P | director | Award / grant | 9,956 | 60,286 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | RAIGUEL DARREN S | officer | Award / grant | 4,480 | 36,617 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | RAIGUEL DARREN S | officer | Award / grant | 16,247 | 50,845 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | MARRON MARK P | director | Award / grant | 26,477 | 82,275 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Stoecker Erica Steinacker | officer | Award / grant | 1,323 | 7,390 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Marion Elaine D | officer | Award / grant | 3,981 | 35,562 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Marion Elaine D | officer | Award / grant | 16,247 | 50,015 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-14 | MARRON MARK P | director | Withheld for tax | 5,604 | 54,880 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-14 | MARRON MARK P | director | Withheld for tax | 4,550 | 50,330 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-14 | RAIGUEL DARREN S | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,792 | 32,137 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-14 | Marion Elaine D | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,792 | 31,581 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-14 | Marion Elaine D | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,742 | 34,373 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-14 | RAIGUEL DARREN S | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,742 | 34,929 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-14 | Stoecker Erica Steinacker | officer | Withheld for tax | 163 | 6,204 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-14 | Stoecker Erica Steinacker | officer | Withheld for tax | 137 | 6,067 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | MARRON MARK P | director | Withheld for tax | 3,031 | 60,484 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Marion Elaine D | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,860 | 37,115 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | RAIGUEL DARREN S | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,860 | 37,671 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Stoecker Erica Steinacker | officer | Withheld for tax | 161 | 6,367 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | BOWEN BRUCE M | director | Award / grant | 283 | 2,009 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-05 | Portegello Michael Joseph | director | Award / grant | 894 | 894 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | BOWEN BRUCE M | director | Award / grant | 248 | 1,726 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-31 | RAIGUEL DARREN S | officer | Award / grant | 82 | 39,531 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-31 | Stoecker Erica Steinacker | officer | Award / grant | 8 | 6,528 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-11 | Callies John E | director | Gift | 280 | 21,148 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.