Issued 2026-09-16 at $174.34 · now $174.34 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, PLTR has typically landed between $136.60 and $239.47 — a range of −21.7% to +37.4% from the issuance price $174.34.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,476 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-09-30 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($174.34) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where PLTR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $174.34 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $174.34 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $179.82 (+3.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $159.49–$200.16
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $136.6–$239.47
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,476 windows spanning 2020-09-30 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2022-04-11 | −47.0% | −47.0% | +2.0% |
| 2022-04-08 | −42.6% | −42.6% | +1.7% |
| 2022-04-07 | −41.9% | −41.9% | +0.5% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-10-27 | +165.3% | −7.5% | +165.3% |
| 2020-10-28 | +154.9% | −6.6% | +167.7% |
| 2020-10-30 | +153.4% | +0.0% | +186.8% |
1,476 overlapping windows · 2020-09-30 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$282.2B
market cap
$0.90
EPS (TTM)
136.6
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-03
next earnings
Revenue$4.5B
'20'25
Net income$1.6B
'20'25
Free cash flow$2.1B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr36.3%
'20'25
ROE · by yr22.0%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.03
'20'25
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 80 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$10.09
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 34.2× · n=80$30.78
- Analyst target · range $138.00–$230.00$190.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$174.34
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
50%
+5.2%
n=6
Feb
50%
+1.3%
n=6
Mar
50%
+3.1%
n=6
Apr
17%
−0.5%
n=6
May
50%
+15.9%
n=6
Jun
83%
+3.1%
n=6
Jul
83%
+8.9%
n=6
Aug
50%
+6.5%
n=6
Sep
67%
+5.3%
n=6
Oct
83%
+6.1%
n=6
Nov
50%
+35.6%
n=6
Dec
33%
−5.9%
n=6
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Stat Lauren Elaina Friedman | director | Sale | 1,342 @ $182.50 | $245K | −2.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 52,765 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Buckley Jeffrey | officer | Sale | 1,250 @ $174.29 | $218K | −2.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 56,921 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Karp Alexander C. | director | Sale | 306,544 @ $174.85 | $53.6M | −4.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 6,497,191 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Karp Alexander C. | director | Sale | 63,629 @ $175.42 | $11.2M | −1.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 6,433,562 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Karp Alexander C. | director | Sale | 62,498 @ $174.73 | $10.9M | −1.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 6,443,958 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Karp Alexander C. | director | Sale | 19,493 @ $173.79 | $3.4M | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 6,803,735 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Karp Alexander C. | director | Sale | 11,602 @ $173.84 | $2.0M | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 6,506,456 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Karp Alexander C. | director | Sale | 11,200 @ $175.48 | $2.0M | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 6,432,758 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Karp Alexander C. | director | Sale | 11,378 @ $172.65 | $2.0M | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 6,823,228 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Karp Alexander C. | director | Sale | 4,200 @ $172.66 | $725K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 6,518,058 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Buckley Jeffrey | officer | Sale | 1,565 @ $174.85 | $274K | −2.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 58,503 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Karp Alexander C. | director | Sale | 1,304 @ $176.31 | $230K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 6,432,258 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Karp Alexander C. | director | Sale | 500 @ $176.30 | $88K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 6,432,258 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Buckley Jeffrey | officer | Sale | 325 @ $175.42 | $57K | −0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 58,178 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Buckley Jeffrey | officer | Sale | 100 @ $173.79 | $17K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 60,068 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Buckley Jeffrey | officer | Sale | 58 @ $172.65 | $10K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 60,168 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Buckley Jeffrey | officer | Sale | 7 @ $176.31 | $1K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 58,171 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Moore Alexander D. | director | Sale | 7,520 @ $174.07 | $1.3M | −0.7% of holding | +3.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,084,059 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Moore Alexander D. | director | Sale | 3,516 @ $173.21 | $609K | −0.3% of holding | +3.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,091,579 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Moore Alexander D. | director | Sale | 3,455 @ $175.13 | $605K | −0.3% of holding | +3.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,080,604 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Moore Alexander D. | director | Sale | 1,509 @ $175.84 | $265K | −0.1% of holding | +3.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,079,095 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-06 | Sankar Shyam | director | Sale | 16,063 @ $155.74 | $2.5M | −2.4% of holding | +11.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 652,797 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-06 | Sankar Shyam | director | Sale | 7,976 @ $156.78 | $1.3M | −1.2% of holding | +11.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 644,821 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-06 | Sankar Shyam | director | Sale | 6,191 @ $154.65 | $957K | −0.9% of holding | +11.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 668,860 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-06 | Sankar Shyam | director | Sale | 2,735 @ $153.40 | $420K | −0.4% of holding | +11.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 675,051 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-06 | Sankar Shyam | director | Sale | 2,035 @ $157.44 | $320K | −0.3% of holding | +11.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 642,786 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Stat Lauren Elaina Friedman | director | Sale | 3,032 @ $165.00 | $500K | −5.3% of holding | +14.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 54,107 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Moore Alexander D. | director | Sale | 11,800 @ $133.75 | $1.6M | −1.1% of holding | +30.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,099,295 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Moore Alexander D. | director | Sale | 3,100 @ $134.55 | $417K | −0.3% of holding | +30.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,096,195 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Moore Alexander D. | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $135.72 | $136K | −0.1% of holding | +30.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,095,195 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Moore Alexander D. | director | Sale | 100 @ $136.79 | $14K | −0.0% of holding | +30.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,095,095 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | Sankar Shyam | director | Sale | 150,000 @ $130.00 | $19.5M | −20.0% of holding | −4.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 599,899 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | Sankar Shyam | director | Sale | 35,000 @ $130.00 | $4.5M | −5.2% of holding | −4.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 642,786 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Moore Alexander D. | director | Sale | 7,000 @ $134.44 | $941K | −0.6% of holding | +0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,111,095 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Moore Alexander D. | director | Sale | 4,000 @ $133.81 | $535K | −0.4% of holding | +0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,118,095 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Moore Alexander D. | director | Sale | 3,600 @ $131.54 | $474K | −0.3% of holding | +0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,122,595 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Moore Alexander D. | director | Sale | 900 @ $130.48 | $117K | −0.1% of holding | +0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,126,195 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Moore Alexander D. | director | Sale | 500 @ $132.55 | $66K | −0.0% of holding | +0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,122,095 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | Buckley Jeffrey | officer | Sale | 1,481 @ $128.80 | $191K | −2.4% of holding | −0.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 60,226 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Stat Lauren Elaina Friedman | director | Sale | 1,598 @ $160.00 | $256K | −2.8% of holding | −20.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 55,022 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-29 | Stat Lauren Elaina Friedman | director | Sale | 1,667 @ $150.00 | $250K | −2.9% of holding | −24.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 56,620 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-22 | Buckley Jeffrey | officer | Sale | 830 @ $137.41 | $114K | −1.3% of holding | −15.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 61,707 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-20 | Karp Alexander C. | director | Sale | 224,009 @ $136.08 | $30.5M | −3.3% of holding | −13.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,554,453 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | Cohen Stephen Andrew | director | Sale | 180,187 @ $136.08 | $24.5M | −64.6% of holding | −13.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 98,883 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | Karp Alexander C. | director | Sale | 122,195 @ $136.61 | $16.7M | −1.9% of holding | −13.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,432,258 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | Cohen Stephen Andrew | director | Sale | 98,291 @ $136.61 | $13.4M | −99.4% of holding | −13.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 592 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | Sankar Shyam | director | Sale | 93,218 @ $136.08 | $12.7M | −11.8% of holding | −13.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 693,635 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | Sankar Shyam | director | Sale | 50,849 @ $136.61 | $6.9M | −7.3% of holding | −13.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 642,786 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | Karp Alexander C. | director | Sale | 27,595 @ $135.09 | $3.7M | −0.4% of holding | −13.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,778,462 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | Cohen Stephen Andrew | director | Sale | 22,196 @ $135.09 | $3.0M | −7.4% of holding | −13.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 279,070 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | Karp Alexander C. | director | Sale | 17,310 @ $134.20 | $2.3M | −0.3% of holding | −13.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,806,057 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | Cohen Stephen Andrew | director | Sale | 13,923 @ $134.20 | $1.9M | −4.4% of holding | −13.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 301,266 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | Sankar Shyam | director | Sale | 11,483 @ $135.09 | $1.6M | −1.4% of holding | −13.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 786,853 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | Taylor Ryan D. | officer | Sale | 11,074 @ $136.08 | $1.5M | −5.1% of holding | −13.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 205,799 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | Glazer David A. | director | Sale | 9,647 @ $136.08 | $1.3M | −2.5% of holding | −13.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 380,504 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | Sankar Shyam | director | Sale | 7,203 @ $134.20 | $967K | −0.9% of holding | −13.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 798,336 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | Karp Alexander C. | director | Sale | 6,635 @ $132.95 | $882K | −0.1% of holding | −13.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,823,367 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | Taylor Ryan D. | officer | Sale | 6,040 @ $136.61 | $825K | −2.9% of holding | −13.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 199,759 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | Glazer David A. | director | Sale | 5,262 @ $136.61 | $719K | −1.4% of holding | −13.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 375,242 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | Cohen Stephen Andrew | director | Sale | 5,337 @ $132.95 | $710K | −1.7% of holding | −13.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 315,189 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
87 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Karp Alexander C. | director | Option exercise | 97,500 | 1,852,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Karp Alexander C. | director | Conversion | 402,348 | 52,582,901 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Karp Alexander C. | director | Option exercise | 877,500 | 16,672,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Karp Alexander C. | director | Option exercise | 877,500 | 52,887,749 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Karp Alexander C. | director | Option exercise | 97,500 | 52,985,249 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Karp Alexander C. | director | Conversion | 90,000 | 52,492,901 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Karp Alexander C. | director | Conversion | 402,348 | 6,834,606 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Karp Alexander C. | director | Conversion | 402,348 | 6,834,606 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Karp Alexander C. | director | Conversion | 90,000 | 6,522,258 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Karp Alexander C. | director | Conversion | 90,000 | 6,522,258 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Karp Alexander C. | director | Conversion | 90,000 | 6,522,258 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Karp Alexander C. | director | Conversion | 402,348 | 6,834,606 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Karp Alexander C. | director | Conversion | 402,348 | 6,834,606 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Karp Alexander C. | director | Conversion | 90,000 | 6,522,258 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Karp Alexander C. | director | Conversion | 402,348 | 6,834,606 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Karp Alexander C. | director | Conversion | 90,000 | 6,522,258 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Karp Alexander C. | director | Conversion | 90,000 | 6,522,258 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Karp Alexander C. | director | Conversion | 90,000 | 6,522,258 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Karp Alexander C. | director | Conversion | 402,348 | 6,834,606 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Karp Alexander C. | director | Conversion | 90,000 | 6,522,258 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Karp Alexander C. | director | Conversion | 402,348 | 6,834,606 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Karp Alexander C. | director | Conversion | 402,348 | 6,834,606 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Sankar Shyam | director | Gift | 294,502 | 292,786 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Sankar Shyam | director | Gift | 55,498 | 587,288 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Sankar Shyam | director | Conversion | 35,000 | 3,628,598 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Sankar Shyam | director | Conversion | 35,000 | 677,786 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Sankar Shyam | director | Conversion | 35,000 | 677,786 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Sankar Shyam | director | Conversion | 35,000 | 677,786 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Sankar Shyam | director | Conversion | 35,000 | 677,786 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-22 | Buckley Jeffrey | officer | Award / grant | 17,124 | 17,124 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-02 | Sankar Shyam | director | Conversion | 35,000 | 3,663,598 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-02 | Sankar Shyam | director | Conversion | 35,000 | 677,786 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-02 | Sankar Shyam | director | Conversion | 35,000 | 677,786 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Schiff Alexandra W. | director | Award / grant | 2,118 | 189,083 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Woersching Eric H. | director | Award / grant | 2,118 | 4,466 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Moore Alexander D. | director | Award / grant | 2,118 | 1,127,096 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Stat Lauren Elaina Friedman | director | Award / grant | 2,118 | 57,140 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Cohen Stephen Andrew | director | Option exercise | 675,000 | 14,206,938 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Karp Alexander C. | director | Option exercise | 877,500 | 17,550,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Sankar Shyam | director | Option exercise | 375,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-30 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-16 | $1–15K |
| John Boozman | Senate | purchase | 2026-06-16 | 2026-05-15 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-15 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-21 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-27 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2026-06-08 | 2026-05-15 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2026-06-08 | 2026-05-08 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-13 | $15–50K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-05-08 | 2026-04-14 | $15–50K |
| John Hickenlooper | Senate | sale | 2026-05-05 | 2025-06-03 | $1–15K |
| John Hickenlooper | Senate | sale | 2026-05-05 | 2025-04-16 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-13 | $15–50K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.