PLOWDouglas Dynamics, Inc.Industrials · Manufacturing - Tools & Accessoriesas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $39.36 · now $39.36 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, PLOW has typically landed between $34.30 and $45.73 — a range of −12.9% to +16.2% from the issuance price $39.36.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,096 overlapping 1 month windows · 2010-05-05 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($39.36) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where PLOW has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $39.36 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$34.3worst · -12.9%$45.73best · +16.2%
  • now $39.36 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $39.01 (-0.9%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $36.39–$41.63
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $34.3–$45.73
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,096 windows spanning 2010-05-05 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-18−51.4%−51.4%+0.0%
2020-02-19−48.3%−50.6%+0.0%
2020-02-20−47.4%−50.4%+0.0%
3 best
2020-03-18+36.8%+0.0%+46.2%
2022-10-07+34.4%+0.0%+34.4%
2022-10-03+33.6%−0.5%+33.6%

4,096 overlapping windows · 2010-05-05 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~17 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
31%
−1.9%
n=16
Feb
63%
+5.1%
n=16
Mar
25%
−3.3%
n=16
Apr
44%
−0.4%
n=16
May
31%
+0.1%
n=16
Jun
65%
+4.3%
n=17
Jul
53%
+1.0%
n=17
Aug
47%
+3.0%
n=17
Sep
47%
−0.6%
n=17
Oct
69%
+4.0%
n=16
Nov
69%
+4.8%
n=16
Dec
50%
−0.1%
n=16

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$54$292026-03-09: 2 insider sales, $79K — Sisulak Jon J, Bernauer Christopher E2026-03: 2 open-market sales, $79K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Sisulak Jon J — Sale on 2026-03-09, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Bernauer Christopher E — Sale on 2026-03-09, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-03-09Sisulak Jon JofficerSale977 @ $42.61$42K−6.4% of holding+4.7%−16.8%14,232Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-09Bernauer Christopher EofficerSale869 @ $42.61$37K−8.6% of holding+4.7%−16.8%9,243Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-16Janik James LdirectorSale15,650 @ $29.01$454K−28.1% of holding+0.1%−4.7%40,136Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-03-10Sisulak Jon JofficerSale837 @ $25.81$22K−6.0% of holding−1.5%+15.6%13,186Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

35 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-07-01Lauber Sarah CdirectorWithheld for tax6,73581,542Form 4
2026-05-11Janik James LdirectorGift6,000110,862Form 4
2026-04-29Nelson Bradley M.directorAward / grant2,7374,665Form 4
2026-04-29STURDIVANT DONALD WdirectorAward / grant2,73744,576Form 4
2026-04-29Akolawala JoherdirectorAward / grant2,73715,823Form 4
2026-04-29Ansberry Jennifer IdirectorAward / grant2,7374,665Form 4
2026-04-29Bacus Lisa RdirectorAward / grant2,73720,242Form 4
2026-04-29KRUEGER KENNETH WdirectorAward / grant2,73742,744Form 4
2026-04-29Janik James LdirectorAward / grant2,73742,873Form 4
2026-03-09Lauber Sarah CdirectorWithheld for tax5,15288,277Form 4
2026-03-09Van Genderen MarkdirectorWithheld for tax4,70563,113Form 4
2026-02-27Janik James LdirectorGift2,000116,862Form 4
2026-02-17Bernauer Christopher EofficerAward / grant4,12310,112Form 4
2026-02-17Lauber Sarah CdirectorAward / grant9,91793,429Form 4
2026-02-17Sisulak Jon JofficerAward / grant2,02315,209Form 4
2026-02-17Van Genderen MarkdirectorAward / grant21,47567,818Form 4
2026-01-02Lauber Sarah CdirectorWithheld for tax13,82983,512Form 4
2025-10-30Ansberry Jennifer IdirectorAward / grant1,9281,928Form 4
2025-10-30Nelson Bradley M.directorAward / grant1,9281,928Form 4
2025-03-10Lauber Sarah CdirectorWithheld for tax4,83897,341Form 4
2025-03-10Van Genderen MarkdirectorWithheld for tax1,42146,343Form 4
2025-03-03Janik James LdirectorAward / grant4,39455,786Form 4
2025-03-03Bernauer Christopher EofficerAward / grant5,9895,989Form 4
2025-03-03Van Genderen MarkdirectorAward / grant13,97847,764Form 4
2025-02-19Sisulak Jon JofficerAward / grant19914,023Form 4
2025-02-19Van Genderen MarkdirectorAward / grant8,38633,396Form 4
2025-02-19Van Genderen MarkdirectorAward / grant39033,786Form 4
2025-02-19Lauber Sarah CdirectorAward / grant13,694100,456Form 4
2025-02-19Lauber Sarah CdirectorAward / grant1,723102,179Form 4
2025-02-19Sisulak Jon JofficerAward / grant1,99613,824Form 4
2025-02-18Akolawala JoherdirectorAward / grant4,39413,086Form 4
2025-02-18KRUEGER KENNETH WdirectorAward / grant4,39440,007Form 4
2025-02-18Bacus Lisa RdirectorAward / grant4,39417,505Form 4
2025-02-18DANO MARGARET SdirectorAward / grant4,39437,998Form 4
2025-02-18STURDIVANT DONALD WdirectorAward / grant4,39441,839Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.